Campaign Blog: News & Updates

The look of success today ...

Jeez, if you're a Republican, go to bed early tonight. Ciro's leading nicely in the early going in CD23. Currently ahead by about 5000 votes and I expect Bonilla to get about 2500 net votes out of Medina County, which isn't even logging votes on the SecState site. Currently as follows:

UPDATE: IT. IS. OVER!!!

RACE	NAME		PARTY	TOTAL VOTES	PERCENT
U. S. Representative District 23
Henry Bonilla - Incumbent 	REP	     30,818	 45.49%
Ciro D. Rodriguez  		DEM	     36,923	 54.51%
					---------------	
Total Votes Cast			     67,741
Precincts Reported 		244	of	267 Precincts	91.39%

Two of Tom DeLay's redistricted Dems will be sworn into office while Tom DeLay joins the lowly ranks of the blogosphere. The conventional wisdom that the national wave was met by a levee in Texas has now been shown to be a broken levee.

UPDATE 2.0: AP Calls It ...

AP: Rodriguez defeats Bonilla
Greg Jefferson
Express-News

U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla lost Bexar County for the first time in his political career Tuesday night, and trailed Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in total votes in the sprawling Congressional District 23.

The Associated Press declared Rodriguez the winner shortly before 9 p.m.

But early in the evening it remained unclear whether Democrats could claim another seat to their new majority in the House of Representatives.

Still, the 14-year incumbent saw bad signs out west.

Bonilla lost ground in at least part of his West Texas stronghold. He carried El Paso, Culberson, Presidio and Brewster counties in the seven-way special election on Nov. 7, but lost them Tuesday to Rodriguez.

“It's an uphill battle, no doubt about it,� Bonilla spokesman Phil Ricks said at 8:15 p.m. “I think the other side was much more organized in getting the early vote out, and that's why they sought extra days of early voting.�

Soon after Gov. Rick Perry set the runoff date, the League of United Latin American Citizens sued and eventually wrangled three extra days of early voting before dropping the complaint.

Vanessa Gonzalez, spokeswoman for Rodriguez, said the former four-term congressman's campaign had placed heavy emphasis on coaxing voters to the polls early.

She also said the early results Tuesday indicated District 23 would join the Democratic trend that hit Nov. 7.

“People realized the only way to change things was to go out and vote,� she said. “Ciro's impending win is going to be part of the national momentum.�

On Nov. 7, Bonilla came within one percentage point of an outright majority, which would've allowed him to avoid a runoff. Still, after an August redistricting decision, the district proved to be much less receptive to the San Antonio Republican — the only Mexican American Republican in the U.S. House.

Tuesday's runoff stemmed from the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling last June that Texas Republican leaders breached the Voting Rights Act by slicing 100,000 Hispanics from the district in their 2003 remap. A three-judge panel answered by removing several largely Anglo Hill Country counties and pulling heavily Hispanic South Bexar County into the district.

The move put Democrats on equal footing with Republicans and increased the Hispanic population to 61 percent.

Bonilla came into the runoff with $1.6 million in the bank and the advantages of incumbency — a familiar name across the sprawling district and list of projects for which he'd secured federal funding.

Rodriguez hobbled out of the special election in debt and with the reputation of a less than savvy campaigner.

But he had a name that registered in Bexar County and into South Texas, and soon he had the interest of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The organization wound up spending more than $900,000 on mail-outs and television ads.

Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University, said he's talked informally with both campaigns in the past month.

“I think a lot of Democrats involved think making the investment was a wise decision that just weeks ago looked pretty risky,� Segal said.

W hn national Democrats came on the scene, Rodriguez's campaign was transformed from a largely all-volunteer effort to a more professionalized operation.

The race quickly turned bitter.

Rodriguez accused Bonilla of slashing veterans' health benefits and voting against a $1,500 bonus for troops active in Iraq and Afghanistan. And Bonilla called Rodriguez's judgment into question over his support for repealing a law allowing the use of secret evidence in deportation cases, saying it would have lead to the freeing of suspected terrorists.

The campaigns made those swipes mostly through television and radio advertising and mail-outs.

Richard Langlois, chairman of the Bexar County Republican County, blamed Bonilla's fall in Bexar County on his supporters staying home Tuesday.

“Obviously, it was voter apathy,� Langlois said. “Obviously, something happened.�

Chron: Former rival backs Democrat in Dist. 23 runoff - Suzanne Gamboa

Rumble ...

The candidate trying to unseat Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla is getting support from a former Democratic rival who forced him out of office.

Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez has been endorsed by Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat who ousted him from the House in the 2004 primary. Rodriguez is in a runoff with Bonilla for House District 23.

Rodriguez and Cuellar had been friends but had a falling out when Cuellar opposed Rodriguez in 2004. Cuellar, who also squashed Rodriguez's attempt to win back his seat in March, now represents the 28th congressional district.

Cuellar joined Texas' House Democrats, 11 total, in signing a letter to Rodriguez pledging support.

UPDATE: Speaking of Ciro, the DCCC has gone on the air. And since it's the only game in town and I neglected to offer up a form of Tuesday YouTube fun yesterday, here ya go ...

Dogpiling on the funniest damn story in the news these days, I'll second Kuff's post on Queen Sheltie, adding only the thought that, upon seeing the KHOU story, I'm curious if she's related to Katherine Harris.

Shelley Sekula-Greenberg-Rodriguez-Gibbs-Harris?

Thanks for the laugh, Sheltie! Keep 'em coming.

Funniest thing to read about Congress ... ever.

Lame-Duck Texas Rep. Gets Down to Work Without DeLay

Shelley Sekula-Gibbs was sworn in as a congresswoman on Monday night and already she's a lame duck. Because of a weird electoral quirk, her brief term in office expires next month.

But you couldn't tell that by listening to her.

"I'm working hard to accomplish the things I'm working for," she said yesterday. "For tax cuts. For immigration reform. To make sure we have a good solution for the war in Iraq."

All that? In a few weeks?

"If there's a way to do it, I'll do it," she said, smiling beneath her bright blond hair. "I'll deal with the leadership to get as much done as possible."

Sekula-Gibbs (R-Tex.) won a race for Congress on Nov. 7. She also lost a race for Congress on Nov. 7. It's a long story:

It gets even funnier after this. Just read the whole thing and don't drink anything in the process ... you might just as well end up spitting it out onto the monitor.

UPDATE: BOR points out that DeLay's former staffers were not quite as humored by Shelley's arrival as Shelley herself was. Sheesh, what's left for a political junky's Christmas present at the rate this woman is going?

Texas Republican consultant Bill Miller on the Run Everywhere philosophy necessity ...

Bill Miller, a Republican consultant who has also worked for Democrats, said the Democrats "didn't win more because they didn't field enough candidates."

Miller said President Bush's political adviser, Karl Rove, told him after the 1994 GOP landslide that his only regret was not running more candidates.

Political seasons like 2006 don't come around very long. But when you look at the previous moments - 1974, 1980, 1982, 1986, 1994 - those moments in time have a way of shaping a much longer period of time than the one year window you get leading up to Election Day.

The so-called political leadership (such that it is) on our side in this beloved state, has a black mark for the missed opportunities in 2006. Fred Baron no only stayed out of the early stages of the statewide races, but he openly signalled that the Democratic Trust would not be actively involved in statewide contests, declaring them all but won by the GOP. Great recruitment effort there. Kelly Fero, quoted in this story about how "those who are honest" in state Dem leadership "may now rue the day" ... nevermind that it was Kelly Fero himself doing his darndest to keep Chris Bell down while John Sharp played his political game of Hamlet. Some in leadership need to be more honest than others, it seems.

Run Everywhere ... that's the lesson from 2006. That is all.

Harvey Kronberg on the Speaker's race ...

"This is a different House and even if he wins the speakership again, he does not have a governing majority."

No wonder Rick Perry is already looking over the benefits of bipartisanship.

A few bigger thoughts later in the weekend, but some nuts and bolts for now.

Nationally, the raw total vote led to the following results:

Senate: 55.0%-42.4%
House: 53.3%-44.6%

Here in Texas, here's the State Rep equivalent ...

Rep: 1,712,130 - 52.4%
Dem: 1,323,759 - 40.5%
Lib: 231,078 - 7.1%

There's still a fair amount of ground to make up on that 40.5%, but the 52.4% at the top of the pack shouldn't strike anyone as a number that instills a sense of hopelessness. The question for Texas Dems will be who realizes that we cannot write off the statewide slate with a herd of people that nobody's heard of and who won't have the bankroll to ensure that nobody's heard of them by Election Day 2010.

Field an even broader slate of candidates in 2008 and 2010, from the State Rep level to the Judicial races ... and yes, even for the statewide contests. Fight on all fronts. Eventually, some aspect of the facade that is the GOP majority in this state cracks. The fissures are already in place - business conservatives who realize their party has been hijacked by the religious right; conservatives who appreciate good schools in their neighborhood versus those who don't believe in public education in the slightest (and spend big bucks to cut it off at the knees). All we have to do is keep chipping away.

Five pickups among State Rep seats ... six if you go back to Donna Howard's Valentine Day present. Over the next two cylces, it's increasingly relevant to speak in terms of a Democratic majority in the House by the time redistricting comes back around. Run a credible candidate for Guv & Lite Guv and the state starts to look a whole lot different if one or both of them win in 2010.

William McKenzie of the DMN gives a taste of what might be on the horizon statewide. Unfortunately, it comes in a rather dysfunctional analysis. Per McKenzie, the big media markets that make up the big urban centers of Texas are areas where Dems are gaining momentum. After starting the column off stating our need to take a page out of Bill Clements' backroads approach, he then goes on to suggest we discard the very approach he leads off with.

I think there are areas of opportunity off the beaten path of Belo, Hearst, and others. To win, you have to grow, not just ride the wave. There are areas in South Texas and East Texas where we have to rebuild and re-establish trust with voters who have fled the Democratic Party over time. The areas where we've gained State Rep vote support has come from wealthier-than-average, suburban regions with voters who have professional careers and post-graduate degrees. There's an amazing similarity in the types of districts that we've won with Strama, Howard, Cohen, Vaught, Hightower Pierson, etc .... That's a big part of where to look for a rebirth of Texas Democrats. But there's more. And hitting on all cylinders is a necessity.

Meet your new State Representatives, Texas ...

District 47: Valinda Bolton
District 93: Paula Hightower-Pierson
District 107: Allen Vaught
District 134: Ellen Cohen

Suburban, exurban, multiple-degreed areas around the state going from red to blue. Start back in 2004 and look at districts like Strama's, Leibowitz's, and Vo's ... add Donna Howards' ... and you just might notice a trend. The big tent is taking shape and urban professionals are starting to lead the way away from the GOP and toward an emerging Democratic majority. Throughout the state, all of 52% of voters cast their vote for a Republican State Rep. candidate (41% Dem, the rest Liberterian). It's still a majority, it's still a healthy lead over our vote. But it shouldn't strike anyone as a daunting challenge to overcome.

Valinda Bolton beat a candidate that dropped a million dollars into a race this cycle (albeit with a primary and runoff), For all of Ellen Cohen's fundraising prowess, she still didn't keep stride with Martha Wong. Hightower-Pierson & Vaught were more even with their opponents in terms of funding. The lesson isn't so much a monetary formula as it is to put the right candidates into districts such as these (though money may be a close second).

Katy Hubener raised about $50k, loaned herself about $50k, which is nothing for a race like hers'. In essence, the money folks gave up on her. She still came in 231 shy of a win. It's pathetic that the donor base out there couldn't pony up, oh, let's say another $50,000.

Karen Felthauser & Ernie Casbeer came in just a hair under 45%. Were Sid Miller & Mike Krusee () on a lot of radars before this day? Well they should be now.

Anyways ... A surprising hold in Pete Laney's seat:
District 85: Joe Heflin

Everytime I remember asking about this race, I'd hear something like "Oh Joe'll be fine. We'll hold that seat." I have to confess. I never believed it for a second. I wrote this off a long time ago. Methinks Pete Laney takes this one personally. The Texas GOP kept gunning for Laney the last few cycles. This time around, they dropped nearly a million bucks into a district that George Bush got 76% of the vote in and they got their tails handed to them. Pete Laney is a freakin' rock star.

And a close one still to be determined. I'm hearing a rumbling or two that we'll look good once the totals are counted, though ....
District 32: Juan Garcia
There's some vote-counting complications going on in this district. But it looks like Juan Garcia will pull this out.

Call it a net gain of five seats for the Democratic Party this go-round. Last cycle, it looked as if we might have seen the Republican tidal wave hit the seawall. We gained a net of one seat, winning three, losing two. Defending the rural, WD-40 type seats will pose a constant challenge over time. Robby Cook had no business being in danger this cycle, but he only barely hung on. Most of the others did remarkably well. By comparison, Chuck Hopson (Go Coogs!) had an easier time against much tougher and much better funded opposition.

Around the Houston area, we had some pleasant upswings, including our own rock star to brag about. I'll give Diane Trautman that title. The woman won a mere 39.9% of the vote, but compare it to the 29.6% that led the pack last time. That's a 10-point swing ... and in another suburban/exurban area with a lot of professional workers. Trautman appealed to that target nicely and got one of the biggest upticks around town.

Sherrie Matula did rather nicely as well, winning 42.3% whereas the baseline was 35% a mere two years ago. Another great profile for a district that will only get riper and riper for the picking.

Scott Hochberg, once more, raised the bar in District 137, winning 58.4% this go-round. You just simply cannot say enough great things about Scott's campaign talent. Similarly, Hubert Vo raised his percentage to a more landslide-ish 54.3%. I'm torn there ... I want to just focus on the due congratulations that Hubert Vo is due ... but at the same time, I have to savor the death of whatever Talmadge Heflin thought was left of his political shelflife. So much for districts that Republicans drew for one of their own, only to lose it and see it shift dramatically away from them. Effective representation. Novel concept, that. Congrats to Scott and Hubert (and Karen Loper).

On the down side, Kristi Thibaut pulled in only 41.76%. Jim Murphy was regarded as the tougher opponent for us all along in that district. The demographics are there for us in this district, I still maintain. Once the detail numbers come out, this will be one worth picking apart. But for now, I'll just leave this as a tip of the hat to a woman that I owe a great deal to and a campaign manager that I've had the incredible fortune of working with a bit and learning from a great deal. I haven't lost an ounce of respect for either for giving it what they had and if Kristi takes another shot at it, she's got my number.

Ellen over Martha ... there's plenty of folks who can offer insight there. Great profile for the district, excellent job of raising money, and another one of those hat tips to Bill Kelly for running the whole show. For all of Martha's missteps, I was still nervous over this one (at least until the numbers came in). And while others can comment on what the win means for Ellen, my relation to the campaign is seeing a great young talent like Bill Kelly get a big win like this. So ... congrats Bill.

A quick night, really, but still a few notes worth taking:

U. S. Senator

Kay Bailey Hutchison  REP      2,628,717   61.64%

Barbara Ann Radnofsky DEM      1,531,895   35.92%

Total Votes Cast               4,264,297	


Governor

Rick Perry            REP      1,696,858   39.09%

Chris Bell            DEM      1,291,372   29.75%

"Kinky" Friedman      IND        544,676   12.55%

Carole Strayhorn      IND        780,157   17.97%

Total Votes Cast               4,340,527	

Lieutenant Governor

David Dewhurst        REP      2,485,407   58.28%

Maria Luisa Alvarado  DEM      1,592,723   37.35%

Total Votes Cast               4,264,744	

Attorney General

Greg Abbott           REP      2,525,668   59.59%

David Van Os          DEM      1,575,095   37.16%

Total Votes Cast               4,238,563	

Comptroller of Public Accounts

Susan Combs           REP      2,515,525   59.53%

Fred Head             DEM      1,561,006   36.94%

Total Votes Cast               4,225,703	

Commissioner of the General Land Office

Jerry Patterson       REP      2,289,115   55.15%

VaLinda Hathcox       DEM      1,696,589   40.88%

Total Votes Cast	           4,150,673

Commissioner of Agriculture

Todd Staples          REP      2,280,241   54.85%

Hank Gilbert          DEM      1,733,794   41.71%

Total Votes Cast	           4,157,125	

Railroad Commissioner

Elizabeth Ames Jones  REP      2,243,069   54.12%

Dale Henry            DEM      1,726,404   41.66%

Total Votes Cast               4,144,326	

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2

Don Willett           REP      2,102,209   51.02%

Bill Moody            DEM      1,850,535   44.91%

Total Votes Cast               4,120,355

Presiding Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals

Sharon Keller         REP      2,319,508   56.75%

J.R. Molina           DEM      1,767,757   43.25%

Total Votes Cast               4,087,265	

Not to take away wins from people, but does Don Willet's massive 51% statewide tally still instill fear in the hearts of Texas Democrats? How about Jerry Patterson's 55%? How about the fact that for all her bankroll, Kay Bailey Hutchison couldn't even flirt with Bush's 69% from 1998?

The lesson here is that 2006 represents a lost opportunity for the Democratic rainmakers. They signalled a long time ago that they were going to pretend the statewide races were there. Sure, they came around late for Chris. But by the time they came back around, it was tough to make a race of it. Just imagine if some folks wrote a check or two for Bill Moody.