Campaign Blog: News & Updates

Given the Houston Press' deadlines, you can always bet their election wrapup will always be a little different than can be found elsewhere. This time is no different. Tim Fleck takes a look at the history of Mayor & Controller relations and notes that if anything could spoil the harmony that the Chronicle predicts for the new council, ambition may be a wedge that keeps Mayor White and Controller Parker from working hand in hand.

Its an idea not without merit. But I'll predict he's wrong based on two things:

New council lineup will help new mayor

Sure, they've not been sworn in yet, and yes ... John Williams is hardly a muckraker when it comes to journalists. But the point remains that this new version of city council could and should be a bit more cooperative than was teh case during the Brown years.

With Toni Lawrence in place of Bruce Tatro, Pam Holm in place of Bert Keller, M Khan in place of Mark Ellis, and Adrian Garcia in place of Gabe Vasquez, the tendency will be to favor cooperation. Battle lines may evolve over time, but White's own win has something to say about that. You'll recall he won with over 60%. That means a lot of support that voted for the aforementioned newcomers also voted for Bill White, as Rice Prof. Bob Stein points out. Williams gives a hefty rundown on areas where Sanchez's erosion of support was most notable, also:

Kingwood: 90% in 2001 - 66% in 2003
Tanglewood/River Oaks: 81% in 2001 - 46% in 2003
Westheimer/Hiway 6: 82% in 2001 - 56% in 2003
Denver Harbor: 79% in 2001 - 45% in 2003

Also noted: Anglo vote split somewhat evenly, favoring Sanchez, yet Hispanic voters went for White to the tune of 55%

PILE-ON: (Via Kuff) The Chronicle has two Op/Ed peices offering their advice, also:
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: And Mayor-elect White holds the door key
Much to do, so little time, Mr. White

More or less Final Results:

Reflections:
White blowing the 60% threshold out of the park cannot serve as a huge surprise, but Annise Parker doing the same, is. City Controller has typically been a stepping stone for those with ambitions, and Annise Parker could well be on her way to positioning herself for a Mayoral bid six years from now.

The parties trading races on the At Large seats is likewise not too shocking. I called Green as having an advantage. The rationale that George Strong provided also serves as being reinforced ... female + incumbant = tough to beat. Nevermind that Shelly is the biggest airhead on council. Life will go on. Despite having the garden variety of endorsements and networking ties that Peter Brown had, he came across as unpolished in the few times I saw him on TV. Come to think of it, Bert Keller always struck me as a bit of a goof on TV also.

The city council now has a GOP majority. That, in and of itself is notable. But the voters have also rewarded candidates that have stuck to the middle. Bill White is the obvious poster child of this, having positioned himself well in the middle of Sanchez and Turner. But even here in District F, two GOP candidates duke it out with the winner, MJ Khan, having the endorsements of such liberal luminaries as Sylvester Turner, Sheila Jackson-Lee and Gordon Quan. That Khan stuck to issues of street repair and police patrols (he did have the hot check mailer late, also) shows he made a skillful choice in looking for bipartisan support. Khan may yet be the most worthwhile to watch in order to see if his votes reflect the type of support he won. He'll also get some attention as the first Pakistani-born member of council and its first Muslim. Despite the outcome in District G, Pam Holm's apparent win can even be viewed in the same light. The district there, however, is solidly GOP and should have favored a candidate from "the Republican wing of the Republican party" as Jeff Daily might have been inclined to portray himself. Holm, who has worked with Trees for Houston among other groups that aren't quite part of the stereotypical GOP landscape, managed to lead the November vote count and may yet hang on for a win after all the p's and q's are checked on the final tally.

Assuming any type of misconduct, scandal, or fiscal woes on the part of the city, look for Mayor White to get, perhaps, nominal opposition in 2005, and assuming he fends that off better than Lee Brown's 65% showing in '99, little to no opposition in 2007. The 63% return this time around may well earn him a relatively unopposed 6-year term, however.

What I do expect to occur as a counter to a White Administration, is the county to ramp up its efforts to weigh in against the city whenever possible. Will Judge Lindsay and Steve Radack place the faith in Bill White that they had in Bob Lanier? My hunch is that if the county GOP is as worried about White building support for a statewide run in 2006 (or 2008 ... or 2010), they may not allow for a softening of their efforts to earn more control over Metro, the Sports Authority, and other issues. Another force at work is the group of contractors on the outs with Metro and/or White. Those have been the ones funding the anti-rail efforts ... does White mend bridges with that group and soften the urge to act as a counterweight? Watch and see what happens with the 290 corridor on rail to be an indicator. If White can work with the county to get that added to the rail proposal, then its a sign of cooperation on both sides. If not ... then it could be a contentious 6 years for Bill White.

Will there be anything similar to expect in order to prevent Annise Parker from gaining more and more credibility as a citywide candidate? I've got to think so. Her outcome this time around was a notch better than her runoff win last time as an At Large councilmember. Bigger question ... will conservatives view her as they did Sylvester Turner this time around ... the candidate they hope will be in the race in order to hand-deliver the GOP vote to one of their own and allow them to cherry-pick others still uneasy about Parker's sexuality? Could be interesting to see.

Rising Stars:
Michael Berry and Mark Ellis both won their races in November. Berry's desire to run for something larger is well-known. Announcing for a higher office months after being elected to another is usually a dead giveaway. Look for him to await announcement of the ruling on congressional districts. Two possibilities: He challenges Chris Bell if the old lines hold ... he runs for the 2nd if the new ones hold up in court. The 25th CD is one that favors Dems, but is always going to have to be fought tooth and nail by both sides. The new-look 10th already has a strong candidate in Ted Poe, but it also covers Berry's hometown of Orange as well as the Northeastern area of Harris County.

Mark Ellis, as I understand it ... can only serve two more years. So look for his citywide run to serve as a testing ground for a possible run for Mayor or Controller next time around (if he's so inclined). He's not as well-known, but the fact that he won without a runoff may fuel a few dreams on his part.

Gordon Quan ... another winner in November, may or may not have similar aspirations. But his limitation is that the two top city offices are held by Dems. A challenge would be extremely difficult and therefore, has to be considered unlikely. Will Quan retire into the good night of the political world? He's got two years to decide.

MJ Khan, as noted earlier, is the first Muslim and Pakistani-born member of council. He's made some lofty promises about increasing funds spent in Dist. F on road repair. His first order of business is to deliver. If he does, and he stays in the middle of any ideological disputes, he may have a future. That his 6-year clock begins at the same time as White's and Parker's is advantageous. Don't be shocked if he opts for an At Large seat as vacancies open up. Also, don't think you've heard the last of Khan's main challenger: Terry McConn.

10:40pm:
Holm wins by the slimmest of margins (29 votes) ... look for a recount on this one.
Khan pulls away ... 53-47 (81.8% in)
Green pulls away with similar results.
(UPDATE: Overseas votes will apparently decide the Holm/Daily race)

10:30pm:
White - 62-38 (60% reporting)
Gibbs- 52-48
Green - 52-48
Parker - 62-38
Khan - 52-48
Daily - leads by a whisker
Garcia - 52-48

About all that's left to see is if the 60% threshold stays there for White & Parker and if Daily can hold on to a lead.

10pm:
Orlando concedes ...
White accepts ...
Khan leads 52-48
Gibbs & Green & Parker lead on the citywides.

7:00 - Early returns posted:
White up 60-40
Khan over McConn by all of 41 votes
Daily over Holm by 534 votes
Garcia over Martinez 54-46
Gibbs over Brown 55-45
Keller over Green 52-48
Parker over Tatro 58-42

I'd be shocked if there's any wild swings from those numbers between now and the time all votes are counted. Over 76,000 votes case in the mayors race, so if the total remaining is around 200,000 votes, the early votes should be a pretty decent indicator. Updates coming as warranted .....

Well, this one takes the cake ... George Strong is reporting another mailer causing an uproar. This time, its one by the Harris County GOP claiming that if elected mayor, Bill White will be running for the Senate in 2006.

Strong points out that the last time a Houston mayor ran statewide was ... never. Allow me to quibble one bit with that polite brushoff:

HoustonChronicle.com - District F foes swap barbs about racism, bad checks

The Chron finally arrives on this story. Worth noting is Khan's own mudslinging of a few bad checks written by Terry McConn.

EXTRA: Scans of the latest Khan mailers going up later today. One hits McConn on the bad checks, the other is a positive peice, showing endorsements of the "birds" ... plus one minor shocker: Scott Hochberg. Khan's campaign is getting some hefty helping from Scott's 2002 opponent: Dionne Roberts.

TILL THEN: Gerry Birnberg weighs in on the District F shenanigans. Aside from being head of the county Democratic party, Gerry's law offices are also in District F.

HERE YA GO:
Khan's Endorsements
Hot Checks (front)
Hot Checks (back)

One other to come ....

HoustonChronicle.com - Poll: White widening gap over Sanchez

Official results via KHOU:
White 53%
Sanchez 35%
Undecided 12%

I find the undecideds a little high on this one, both because other polls have had it in single digits and its mere days before the election. Still, the spread points to something in the neighborhood of 60-40, confirming my hunch that White falls just shy of the 60% threshold.

The Controllers race is rather interesting, though:
Parker 46%
Tatro 26%

Obviously a lot of undecideds, but look for Parker to get in thanks to her name ID and Bill White's coattails.

Also encouraging, yet still a squeaker on two fronts ...
Position 3:
Sekula-Gibbs 32%
Peter Brown 31%

I'm still a bit pessimistic about Brown's odds, but I hope I'm wrong.

Ron Green 31%
Bert Keller 28%

My pessimism here is over name ID, although Ron Green has a few factors working in his favor as well. As the results would indicate, Green should have the edge in pulling out a win as both could be close calls at the finish.

A few more Google finds on the District F race:
District F candidates aim to reduce heavy crime in their community
One of the oddities of District F is that, despite being a Democratic district, it has some of the characteristics that are stereotypical of elections of the past: that Republicans show up to vote in every election, and Dems show up to vote for the big ones. So Ron Kirk pulls down 55% of the vote in the precincts that make up this region, yet we have two Republicans in the runoff to replace another Republican councilman. The district also has a pretty big divide over homeowners and apartment dwellers (full disclosure: I rent). Home owners tend to be supportive of the GOP, apartment types tend to favor the Dems. Home owners are more stable residents, living in the area for years ... apt. dwellers come and go within a year in many cases.

So it is, that Terry McConn (home-builder, Little League coach, son of ex-Mayor McConn) has this to say:

The apartments -- they wreak of crime, they wreak of drugs and they wreak of prostitution ...

How uplifting can you get?

District home is where the artifice is, opponent says
There's also the issue of Khan's actual residence, as he does not own a home in Dist. F. At present, he rents an apt. while living elsewhere. Not the biggest deal in the world, really. But McConn is milking it. It is curious how Khan will find an upgrade over a $2.3 million home in Piney Point somwere around Alief, though. Furthermore, the article gives another reason why Terry McConn isn't worth crap: Alan Blakemore is working for him. Shoulda known.

I've got to scan a mailer that the Khan camp is sending out, but its pretty interesting. The jist is that he slams Terry McConn for race-baiting. Seems McConn is mailing out something that has pics of some of Khan's supporters and candidates who have received contributions from Khan in the past. Among the list:

Sanchez accuses White of business tie to terror

And with mere days to go, the campaigning gets ugly. Nothing new here, really, just that apparently, Sanchez seems willing to see if this will get him somewhere closer to 50%. Don't count on it. Adios Orlando ....

Sanchez's final hope

How "over" is the Mayoral race in Houston?

White has plenty of money to pay for television commercials boosting his runoff campaign for mayor. Though the exact number won't be known until today, when campaign finance reports are due, his campaign expects to have raised more than $9 million, including at least $2.3 million of White's own money.

Between now and Saturday's runoff, the White campaign plans to spend $235,000 on television commercials alone.

Pretty over ....

Sanchez, using an anti-tax message as the crux of his runoff campaign, hopes to attract a swarm of Republican voters to the polls. Most of his spending will be aimed at energizing that Republican base and arguing that taxes will rise under White.

Sanchez had hoped to get a boost from the Republican National Committee, which provided his 2001 effort with about $250,000 that the Harris County GOP used to woo Republicans to the polls.

This year, Harris County GOP Chairman Jared Woodfill expects to get less than half that much, with the national party less-than-eager to fund a significantly uphill battle against White, who has important Republican backers of his own.

Perhaps party leaders see the writing on the wall.

In Houston city elections, it is hard to get affluent white Republicans to the polls during runoffs.

Best of luck getting those GOP voters to the polls. Expect a little more than 3 out of 10 to roll that dial to Bill White's name. Not a solid investment if you ask me, but who am I to complain?

The real test for the county GOP (let's be honest, this isn't about Sanchez) is if they can keep White at 55% or below. That would minimalize any claim to having a broad multiracial coalition of support and from both sides of the political aisle. A 60-40 win pretty much makes White's case without saying a word, however.

Right now, the county GOP leaders have to be looking in their rear view mirror at things like demographics (which are nudging the county Dem slowly but surely), and their bench. Demographics aren't quite where they need to be for Dems to take advantage of the situation yet, and as I've argued, even waiting for that to happen has its own risks. But the bench for the Dems has grown to include former Judge Eric Andell (reportedly a onetime name being dropped for County Judge), Sylvia Garcia, and now (presumably) Bill White. That's not the deepest bench in the world, but if you add in a name like Paul Hobby, for instance, the bench is heavy at the top and could be ready to take advantage of the first, best opening at a county-wide race.

The county GOP is far from looking at an empty cupboard itself, but one-by-one, the other team is making gains.