A Path To Victory: A Tale of Three Neighborhoods

One fairly broad point to add to the maps below - particularly why I think they bode well for Annise.(*) For starters, the results on November 3rd stand in rather stark contrast to the winning scenarios that Team Locke has been known to push both in the early stages of their campaign AND the one pushed in the closing days of the first round. Those on the receiving end of the pitch know full well that the results do not mesh with what they were sold. There was no west side Republican vote that went for the black guy in the race. There was no competitive standing in the Hispanic community. The Asian outreach may have gotten them a few precincts, but if that's the high-water mark of success, this is reaching pretty deep into the barrel of wishful thinking.

In the end, the only substantial core of any vote Gene got was in the African-American community. He got about 70% of 'em. Given the fight that Peter put up for those votes, this is something of an accomplishment. So I won't minimize it for what it's worth. Gene's problem, however, is that he failed to really go beyond this base. Unfortunately for them, they were shifting money at the end to close the deal with this vote.

The result for the coming month is that Gene has the following two options for a path to victory:

1. Put together something approximating the Lee Brown coalition (minus the Anglo Dems, that is).

2. Try again with the GOP types.

At the close of vote counting on 11/3, my sense was that Gene might be able to benefit from his first round of introductions with the GOP types. Going through the numbers and looking at the maps, however, that seems to not be the case.

For years, I've heard it said that having an "in" with the inside crowd of city politics actually means something. Gene started off with Bob Lanier on his side. We now have conclusive proof of what that support got Gene Locke: a second place finish (as opposed to a more common fourth place finish) in Precinct 227. To the unfamiliar, that would be the precinct with the River Oaks country club in it and probably the highest average home value in all of Harris County. Gene finished second behind ... you guessed it, Annise Parker.

Furthermore, there were three neighborhoods that I was very interested to see how the winners fared in: Garden Oaks, Meyerland, and Sharpstown. Each because they might have given an indication of where Annise Parker's strength in the Anglo Dem regions was most limited. Here are the findings.

(Bear in mind that the precinct selection is not intended to encompass the entire neighborhood. These were selected in order to cover many neighborhoods while giving a representative result of each individual neighborhood.)

Garden Oaks:
This area is essentially the northern border of the Anglo Dem region and includes a few holdout GOP precincts (324 in particular) which tend to get brighter red in non-Presidential elections.

View Garden Oaks precinct cluster in a larger map

Parker: 40%
Morales: 30%
Brown: 19%
Locke: 9%

Meyerland:
Meyerland represents the Democratic-leaning Jewish area of town (Bellaire being the Republican side of the coin). If it the most Democratic-leaning of the three areas profiled here, but is worth looking at for indications of whether there was any vote movement based against Annise.

View Meyerland precinct cluster in a larger map

Parker: 46%
Morales: 21%
Brown: 20%
Locke: 11%

Sharpstown:
Moreso than Garden Oaks, this neighborhoods tends to lean more conservative for city elections. The numbers may be skewed here by the fact that Peter Brown did have a field office in the southwest side and did fairly well in much of District F. That may mean that his support is a different read in this neighborhood.

View Sharpstown precinct cluster in a larger map

Parker: 31%
Brown: 30%
Morales: 22%
Locke: 13%

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It's worth noting two things in each of these three areas: Annise finished first, Gene finished last. If there existed a sign of weakness for Annise, I'd expect to see it in one of these three areas. But it just didn't happen.

Now, I don't expect that Team Locke is moping around without a plan of action in the runoff. Clearly, it's their job to come up with a path toward 50% + 1. I would expect that their plan would involve reaching out to some of the areas where they just simply need to make better inroads. The recent Hispanic events they've done seem to be logical in that regard. For now, however, I fail to see how their support in the Hispanic community gives them any more reward there than Bob Lanier did for Locke on the west side of town.

Furthermore, a quick glance at Hispanic neighborhoods for the At Large 2 race will show that Sue Lovell got ~50% in those areas. That doesn't seem to indicate that there's bound to be a pronounced anti-gay backlash there in December. And if Annise finishes with 50% + 1 in Hispanic boxes, and 50% + 1 in Anglo GOP boxes, that's enough for her to win. There simply isn't much real estate anywhere else for Gene to go build a coalition.

My own sense is that Annise can win this by doing pretty much what she did in the first round. It doesn't appear that she has to change much. Of course, having the money to do that is of obvious importance.

Gene needs to change the argument and re-introduce himself. Runoffs are tough situations to do that in and neither candidate seems to be back on the airwaves yet. There's another month left, but every week that the nature of the runoff doesn't change favors Annise.

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* - Full disclosure for Marc Campos, who hasn't read this post - I have stated my open support for Annise in this contest. By comparison, I await Marc's overdue admission of support for Gene Locke.