Final COH Fundraising Thoughts for Summer

» Chron: Fundraising shows mayor race is open (Bradley Olson)

Olson documents the official record of events for Mayoral fundraising. I think the "expert" wisdom imparted from talking heads is a pretty accurate summation at this point. Prof. Murray raises the issue of conservative voters (presumably Republican voters) being an "X-factor." One sidenote to this is that if they turn out in notably lesser numbers while liberal and traditional Dem constituencies turn out at a "normal" open seat rate ... then that means the share of the black vote is going to be a few ticks higher than it would otherwise be. Advantage Locke and Ron Green if that's the case. It'll also be of interest to see if there's an affect in any of the council races (Dist. A being tops on my list).

My own play-by-play of the numerical inflow is here. Kuff and Nancy Sims offer some insight as well.

A few points to summarize what I think is worth keeping an eye out for ahead ...

At Large #4 is a farce at this point. If the lineup remains, then one of them will have to win. Call me old fashioned, but I think it's just plain decent for voters to know about candidates when that happens.

At Large #1 looks like a far more interesting race - a belief I hold despite not having numbers for Derr and Litt. In the end, I think it's fair to assume both do a credible job of reaching at least minimal threshold fundraising (and campaign communication). The fact that Stephen Costello just showed up to the dance with a six-figure sum only adds to this race. No clear front-runner and the prospect of well-funded campaigns ... what's not to love?

The mayor's race. I think Kuff's point is spot-on in that each candidate can declare some positive from their financial showing. The bigger question, though, is whose understanding of said positive really helps them translate dollars to votes. I think the edge here goes to Annise Parker - more overall donors translates to a better showing of numerical support on the ground. Peter's positive is that he'll be on the air more than the others - yet it's not a given that he can swing votes on personal appeal. Locke's positive is that he has the city insiders with him and can run a small mint for campaign funds - yet he also shows no restraint in breezing through that pile of money with no apparent regard for efficiency.

I've said in the past that I "lean Gene" and I'm reluctant to make too much of the funding numbers in this race (it's relative, I suppose). One thing not entirely visible from the reports is how much has really changed with Team Locke after their recent campaign shuffle. But there's at least an open question about management style of a hypothetical Mayor Locke that can't be ignored based on his campaign up to now. I think it's fair to say that the distance between Gene and Annise, in my mind, has narrowed considerably. I'm putting myself down as a tossup for now.

District F ... if I get nothing else positive from this election, please let it be that Mike Laster is elected in my home district. It would just be such a refreshing change of course to have a council member who actually knows where his district is on a map (actually living in the district for years makes this so much easier!). So far, so good. No numbers yet from Acquaro, though.

District A ... this is still a low-dollar affair up in the NW side of town. But it represents a possible partisan gain going from a Republican-friendly district in the past, with Lane Lewis surprisingly leading the pack at this mark. This may ultimately equate in optimism with being an Astros fan in early May, but at least this campaign's already at the halfway mark.

Controller ... Ron Green controls his own destiny. If he can find the next gear for raising money, he can win. I'm not sure what his monetary floor is for this, but I don't think he necessarily needs to catchup with Holm's money. If he can't pull it off, then contemplate the next six years of a Mayor Parker or Locke combined with Controller Pam Holm. It's enough to make the Brown/Garcia combo look like a love-in by comparison.