City Fundraising Info: Summer '09

Some quickie math here on today's fundraising numbers for city elections. The biggest news is the mayoral numbers:

Peter Brown: $477k raised, $1.7M cash on hand
Gene Locke: $1.11M raised, $574.6k cash on hand
Annise Parker: $812.9k raised, $602.9k cash on hand
Roy Morales: $18.7k raised, $9.8k cash on hand
TJ Huntley: doesn't really matter

There's obviously some more details to come once the reports get looked at. Question the first: how much of Peter's money comes from his own back pocket? Same really applies for Locke, I suppose, but I just think it's more of an issue for Brown. His support hasn't always come from the traditional political crowds and his pockets are the deepest of the three. I add the dismissive "doesn't really matter" next to Morales, knowing full well that if some GOP moneybag wanted to alter that, they could. It wouldn't get him elected, but I can still squint and see a scenario by which he makes a runoff. Yeah, I'm paranoid like that.

UPDATE #1: From Peter's presser: The Peter Brown for Mayor Campaign has raised over $477,000 since January first of this year bringing his total cash on hand to $1,756,031. I guess that explains the big number - pile it up over years to unload on the next race. $477k is probably fitting with where I see Peter in this race, financially.

UPDATE #3: Morales numbers check in and finance report junkies will enjoy his report. Later, I'll have a calculation on how much of his spending this period went for refilling his gas tank. Doesn't he still have some people he owes money to from previous campaigns?

UPDATE #4: Cash on hand for the mayorals now filled in. Locke's burn rate cannot be good. You spent over half a mill already and nobody knows who you are, yet. Think about that. I think I'm going to take the expenditures part of this report and put in a folder entitled "How Not to Start a Campaign." You can get away with stuff like that if you're the biggest money raiser in town (ie - by a much more significant margin than Locke actually is) ... you can't when you're a first time candidate with the lowest cash on hand number among the serious candidates.

UPDATE #6: The Chron's Brad Olson starts guessing at how big of a check Peter Brown wrote. The baseline is $300k, but the report eventually shows $765k. A particularly appalling fact is that Peter spent roughly 80% of what he raised independently this period. Olson suggests that Brown's ability to write his own checks is a positive. I suppose that's one interpretation. I just don't think there's a particularly great example of Peter ever running the type of campaign to prove his ability to capitalize on that kind of advantage. He'll have pretty TV ads, he'll have good mail. But in the end, he's still Peter Brown.

Looking at numbers for the Controller's race:

Pam Holm: $292.5k raised, $347.8k cash on hand
Ron Green: $48.5k raised, $32.6k cash on hand.
MJ Khan: $87.3k raised; $353.8k cash on hand.

Needless to say, Ron Green's gonna need some serious jack this period unless he thinks Gene Locke can give him the miracle shot that Sylvester Turner gave him in 2003. I like the guy and I'm casting my vote for him, but his reputation as a fundraiser isn't exactly stellar. This would be a fantastic time for Ron to demonstrate otherwise.

UPDATE #7: Green's numbers come in late and his reputation is (unfortunately) still intact. I suppose one iota of fairness mandates that I point out that Ron Green won his first election with all of about $60k in funding. That said, he had a lot more good fortune going for him in that contest than he does here. Pam Holm is the odds-on favorite for this office right now. MJ Khan, bless his heart for sparing us from the likes of Terry McConn, is a non-starter of a candidate. There just isn't a sizable base of support for him anyway you look (I'll give him some benefit of a doubt in Asian circles, but that's still being generous).

Closer to home, here's the lineup for my City Council District F:

Mike Laster: $38.6k raised, $31.6k cash on hand
Peter Acquaro: no report yet
Peter Chow: $5,510 raised, of which $5k is a loan
Lewis Cook: no report yet

Overall, the district is a very affordable race since there's a lower number of likely voters to communicate with. If Cook is a serious enough candidate, it might make getting to 50% in the first round difficult for anyone. Acquaro looks, on paper, like the bigger threat to Laster. Laster's haul looks good. But I kinda feel like an OU football fan here - winning "the game" is all fine and well, but watching a winning game with a 50 point lead sure feels a lot safer. Hard to see anyone running away with the game here, but one can hope.

My neighboring district - G - is also an open seat this time around:

Oliver Pennington: $182k raised, $101.8k cash on hand
George Foulard: $70.8k raised, $63.6k cash on hand
Mills Worsham: no report yet
Dexter Handy: $1.1k raised, $1.5k cash on hand

Dexter wasn't exactly a "well funded" candidate against Radack in 2008, but it still would have been nice to see him clock in some dough to demonstrate some seriousness. Foulard, on the other hand ... very nice showing. This will be the most expensive district race in town and $70k for the period is a decent showing. Pennington's numbers should be the one to watch, however.

UPDATE #2: As expected, Pennington's number leads the pack. The pole position has now been established. Look for the first round of the race to cost closer to $300k. Foulard might make a runoff if the others are more than an asterisk on election day. But the terms of engagement have now been established: raise more money or find a new way to win.

And now, the open At Large seats:

At Large #1
Herman Litt: no report yet
Karen Derr: no report yet
Steve Costello: $156.1k raised, $106.1k cash on hand
Lonnie Allsbrook: no report yet

Note: Put Costello in the "serious candidate" column. Still, he's a first time candidate (as is Derr). That may level the field a bit if Litt trails either in money. Still, Litt should have a decent number to report, despite his campaign kickoff being tonight. Disclosure: I'm down with Herman out of loyalty and that he's an alright guy.

At Large #4
Noel Freeman: $36k raised, $3k cash on hand
C.O. Bradford: $31.2k raised, $20.7k cash on hand
Jay Green: raised nothing and spent $2k, loaned self $10k.
Sandy Dahlke: $5.6k raised, $0 cash on hand

Note: Bradford still needs to raise his game. This is a bad quarter by District B standards, let alone an At Large contest. Just based on the math, it wouldn't surprise me to see someone reconsider getting in on this race. Freeman is still the biggest open question here. Good campaign presence so far, we'll see if that means he's been raising the money to go along with it.

Update #5: Freeman numbers in via presser. Good enough numbers to remain in this game, but not earth-shaking. This race is far more open than I think anyone seems to realize.

Update #8: Freeman COH now posted. You could put all of these candidates together and they'd still rank as a marginally competitive District candidate based on finances.

Other pertinent info? Sue Lovell has over $100k on hand while Roz Shorter loaned herself all of three bucks. Griff loaned himself a thousand (or, if you prefer: 333 times what Shorter loaned herself). Griff also spent $200 on something called "Ginger Ney Email Assistance." It's not likely that Sue's going to take another nap this campaign, so I don't think the 2007 scenario is likely to happen for either of these candidates.

Previously Neglected: District A ... money situation there looks curious:

Alex Wathen: no report yet
Jeff Downing: $12.7k raised, $6.2k cash on hand
Amy Peck: $2.1k raised, $1.7 cash on hand
Bob Schoelkopf: no report yet
Brenda Stardig: $18.5k raised, $5k cash on hand
Lane Lewis: $34.8k raised, $13k cash on hand

I can't say I pegged Lane Lewis to come out in the lead here (I'm doubtful that Wathen or Schoelkopf will raise more). Stardig was supposed to be the anointed one (by Toni Lawrence). She's gonna need some help. But as Kuff has noted, this district is very competitive in a general election environment (visual). A city election is still tough, but at least we know where the fish are.