District H Runoff (and beyond)

» Chron: District H contest will decide sheriff's successor (Brad Olson)

Called it!

Well, not like it was tough, but Yolanda's early numbers were a little surprising as it would have meant a runoff between her and Ed if those numbers held. But even more surprising than that was Welsh leading the E-day returns with 36% to Ed's 29%.

So the game of chicken we have to look forward to now consists of:

1. Will the consolidated number of votes for Hispanic candidates be good news for Ed Gonzalez in the runoff?

or ...

2. Will the altered electorate in a runoff favor Welsh?

I think it's neck and neck between those two aspects. Yes, the runoff will presumably have fewer people voting and poorer Hispanic voters from northside might be less inclined to return in a month. But my sense is that the difference between their likelihood to come out in June of an odd numbered year isn't all that much different than it already was in May of an odd numbered year. As I say after every election ... can't wait to see a canvass report.

Elsewhere in the election world:

- Lee Leffingwell looks like he's favored to be the next mayor of Austin, winning 47%. The runoff against Brewster McCracken (Lee minus 20) is up next.

- Julian Castro wins outright to be the next Mayor of San Antonio. Curious where all the hoopla is for him that seemed to exist the last time he ran. The kid's got a future, so keep an eye on him.

- Dallas looks just as it did before, but had a tough battle at the ballot box over public ownership in convention center hotels. Mark the calendar, kiddos ... "socialism" came up for a vote in Dallas and "socialism" won.

- Southlake seems to be the place to be for upsets.

- Plano has a new mayor. Between a still-struggling economy and other suburbs to the north supplanting Plano, it'll be curious to watch what happens to the town. It's big enough to no longer even be thought of as a real "suburb." Hard to imagine it becoming the ghost town that nearby Hurst became after development moved north of it. There's just too many people there ,,, unless, of course, they all move out. Stay tuned.

- Pasadena mayor Johnny Isbell hangs on against council member Dana Philibert, but is held to a 58% win. There's also a runoff in District A between an Anglo incumbent and an Hispanic challenger, Orlando Ybarra. Anyone know anything about this district? Curious if it's a battleground over changing demographics or something else at work in this race. Interestingly, ACORN has endorsed the challenger. There's a transcript from a recent candidate forum here. It may not quite be "Ed vs Welsh" exciting ... but it looks like a sleeper.