A Better Understanding of the Census Numbers re: Redistricting

» Statesman: Organizer drives Texas on behalf of Obama's political operation
» Paul Burka: Census: Texas is on pace to grow by 20+ percent

These two aren't really all that related, but I wanted to lump them together for the connection of what it means to contest this state in a very active way - both in 2010 and 2012. The first, primarily for what it means to create a more competitive environment for the second. By way of an addendum, here's Kuff's take on Burka's article as well.

Burka notes the census info for what it is: hyper-growth in the suburbs, average growth in the big counties, and declining growth in the rural areas. If I looked at only the census information without taking note of how some of the actual lines were drawn to create seats at every level of government, I might conclude precisely what Burka does. But I can't do that. I mean ... I just have note that the GOP split up Tarrant County's minority population (as well as parts of Dallas') to be divided into over 6 GOP seats. Combine the higher rate of growth in Tarrant and that means they will likely gain a seat, making the territory of a district smaller, making it harder to divide the districts up among GOP turf. At present, there is one Dem Congressional seat in the DFW region. In 2012, there will be at least two. Wendy Davis' Senate seat will, very likely, be made safer for her (and based more heavily on the minority area in Ft. Worth).

State House seats operate differently, it should be noted. I forget the cutoff point, but you basically have to keep all the seats in the big counties fully contained within the county boundaries. So while there will be gains in the number of suburban seats, it's likelier that those gains will come from the loss in rural seats. And many of those suburban counties can have House districts that cut across county lines. An example of what you might get is that the present mix of Kolkhorst's HD13, Kleinschmidt's HD17, Bonnen's HD25, Zerwas' HD28, and Weber's HD29 might well end up looking like the following (see map below for a visual aid):

- HD28 contracts to be a more suburban Katy-based district
- HD13 picks up some of the northern excess turf, HD17 picks up some of the southern excess turf.
- HD29 contracts to be a more suburban Pearland-based district
- HD25 extends out to Matagorda County.

All in all, that represents a net gain of zero seats for the GOP. I repeat ... zero.

Now, add that process up over the DFW suburbs, San An suburbs, and so on ... and I don't doubt you'll see a net gain of a few seats. But it won't lead to the outcome that Burka sees. And there's good reason why it won't.

You still have to divide Harris County up according to Harris County lines ... you still have to divide Dallas County up according to Dallas County lines, and so on. And the blue middle areas of the big counties are growing. In particular, we see the opportunities growing for Dem gains in far western part of the county, and also around Pasadena and Baytown. And fear not ... the changes visible in the southwestern, "Purple Plano" portion of Collin County aren't invisible to us, either. To ignore the changes in these areas (as Kuff points out very succinctly with the case of Harris County's outcome) in favor of whatever Burka's latest lunch date told him would be to ignore some of the biggest changes in Texas. Those changes, for now, favor Democrats over the long run. If the donor class of the party proves more capable of merely looking at a map instead of listening to Paul Burka, I wouldn't be surprised to see a better-funded continuation of the active challenges already begun in those areas.