TX, Plus 4

» PoliTex: Report: Texas will get four extra seats in US House in 2010

So it looks like we might get four new Congressional seats. For the time being, here's a list of what I think is possible for the new landscape. Obviously, I'm not going to delve too much into what the more hyper-partisan attempts at drawing lines might look like. Most of those are rather obvious, anyway ... pack in the other side and expand your own turf to have as many 55-60% seats as humanly possible.

But four new seats means that the overall compactness of the seats should be easier to construct. Even if the GOP is securely in charge of all redistricting levers, splitting the new seats such that they cut 2 for Dems and 2 for the GOP means that the remaining GOP seats are a bit safer than they have been in the past. We'll see in 2011 whether that's enough for them, but obviously, I'm just as hopeful that they won't have the option.

On with the show.

#1 ... Fort Worth gets a Dem seat. This probably comes out of the new seat construction, too. The minority population of the entire DFW territory was sliced in a way that we now have at least six GOP-held seats dipping into minority areas while leaving aside the one required by Voting Rights law. With boundaries shrinking, it makes sense to carve out a new seat out of central FW and make the remaining GOP seats safer. Population growth in Collin and Denton counties should also likely lead to an easier task of making a solidly suburban seat more tied to the big suburbs in the region.

#2 ... Austin gets put back together again. This shouldn't necessarily come from a new seat and it's likely not this high a priority for the GOP. But it makes sense and will likely be a telling indicator of whether the redistricting crew in charge wants to restore meaning to the phrase "community of interest." For the GOP interest, this would lead to Mike McCaul being a Congressman for life rather than a wealthy defender of a 55-45 seat for as long as demographics and voting patterns don't turn against him.

#3 .... a new seat for South Texas. I'm less well-versed in the population trends in South Texas, but I think there are really two factors that ought to be in effect here. One is to do away with the tortilla-strip district shapes. Naturally, this may not be a biggie for the GOP. But even the GOP could see some light in drawing a district that covers Nueces county and the improving GOP turf to the north and west of there. That would disrupt the terrain some right there, and might mean that places like Harlingen aren't considered similar to San Patricio county.

#4 ... a San Antonio do-over. This may be dependent on which party has how much control over the process in 2011. The GOP may try to find another way to target Ciro Rodriguez while keeping the lines as legal as possible. Mind you, they'll have to get clearance through a Barack Obama Justice Department this time (a point which may make my first item a done deal). If there's any Dem influence here, it will likely be aimed at shedding the NE Bexar county portion of the district.

#5 ... Chet Edwards. What more can the GOP do after giving him Brazos and Johnson counties? Granted, the worst they could do in this phase would be to just give him new territory to fight for. That was enough to do away with Charlie Stenholm in 2004. I wouldn't be shocked to see Brazos and Robertson taken away from Chet and packaged in a new CD10. For one, that'd make a Houston-Brazos CD10 somewhat coherent in terms of it's communities of interest. From the GOP perspective, they'd rid one good Dem county from Chet (Robertson) and one that he's somehow managed to have success in (Brazos). Short of splitting up McLennan county, I'm not sure how they'd get rid of Chet, though. From a Dem perspective, you'd want to see Bell, Falls, and Milam return for Chet. That puts the district closer to it's old formulation during the Marvin Leath era.

#6 ... Harris County. The only possible hope for a new Dem seat in Harris County will be one of two ways. The likeliest will be to construct something that takes the southern leg of Culberson's CD7, some of the more multicultural parts that border it in Al Green's CD9, and then move on up Highway 290, possibly picking up some parts of the Heights if possible. All that work to get something that might be a 55-45 Dem seat. The second way - more challenging in my mind - is to draw a new Hispanic opportunity seat on the East Side. That would require about as much gerrymandering as it took to create the 29th, so I think this has to be a low probability unless the GOP just wants to prevent another moderate Dem type from moving to DC.

#7 ... Southeast TX ... The biggest complicating factor here is NASA. Incumbents want it in their district because they can raise money from contractors. That's why DeLay took it away from Lampson. The motive will also play a role in the Harris County lines since the Medical Center is another source of campaign funds. In this instance, I can see it landing with Ted Poe if the GOP keeps the current CD2 more or less intact while losing parts of northern Harris county. If Dems get a say in the matter, look for Jefferson and Galveston to reconnect in full, possibly adding NASA to that mix, but it may be likelier to see it fall to Gene Green somehow. If such a district were to happen, I'm not sure it would mean a return of Nick Lampson, but there's a long line of potential suitors who could win the district handily.

So far, this means a net addition of seats as follows: South Texas, Harris County, Tarrant County, and one to be named later. Optimistically, the final one could involve reworking East Texas in a way that the GOP gets the new seat and it slices into some suburban Dallas/Collin/Rockwall territory. This is optimistic in that it could leave some space for a Dem-friendly seat somewhere in East Texas. The more pessimistic scenario is that a new seat is more of a closed-in district based in Collin/Rockwall/Dallas. That would limit the amount needed to rework any of the East Texas seats.

Outside of that, I think the tweaks should be minimal. A little horse-trading for a spare county here or there among the West Texas districts, but no drastic overhauls. The coastal region with Ron Paul's CD14 and (eventually) Pete Olson's CD22 could get some work done to them, but they should both be safer or as-safe after any remapping. I think it makes sense to take Galveston and Chambers out of CD14 and move that district and move the lines up north, while taking Katy out of CD14 and putting it in with a CD22 that doesn't include Galveston or Harris county. For the sake of evening out the population count, Brazoria might be a better fit with a new CD22 than a CD14, giving that district even more of a suburban nature and CD14 a more defined Coastal Bend definition.

If we were to talk about the scorched earth possibilities of one party or another trying to rework the map, I think it's entirely plausible for the high end for Dems to be a gain of 6 or 7 seats and for the GOP, maybe only a net gain of 2. As far as the more plausible scenarios in between, I'd love to hear some alternatives to those listed above.