Dem in the City

Wanna know how well candidates did in the City vs the rest of Harris County? Here's the math:

Barack Obama
City of Houston (approximation)
Obama - 359,021 (60.7%)
McCain - 227,917 (38.5%)
TOTAL - 591,437

Rest of Harris County
Obama - 231,961 (40.0%)
McCain - 343,966 (59.3%)
TOTAL - 580,035

Vote Share:
COH ... 50.5%
Rest ... 49.5%

Adrian Garcia
City of Houston (approximation)
Garcia - 376,562 (66.0%)
Thomas - 193,758 (34.0%)
TOTAL - 570,320

Rest of Harris County
Garcia - 261,026 (46.4%)
Thomas - 301,488 (53.6%)
TOTAL - 562,514

Vote Share:
COH ... 50.3%
Rest ... 49.7%

Diane Trautman
City of Houston (approximation)
Trautman - 318,626 (55.5%)
Bettencourt - 241,746 (42.1%)
TOTAL - 573,718

Rest of Harris County
Trautman - 207,420 (36.7%)
Bettencourt - 344,981 (61.0%)
TOTAL - 565,469

Vote Share:
COH ... 50.4%
Rest ... 49.6%

David Mincberg
City of Houston (approximation)
Mincberg - 321,939 (56.6%)
Emmett - 247,198 (43.4%)
TOTAL - 469,137

Rest of Harris County
Mincberg - 207,114 (37.0%)
Emmett - 353,113 (63.0%)
TOTAL - 560,227

Vote Share:
COH ... 50.4%
Rest ... 49.6%

I may be operating from antiquated intel here, but my sense was that the city/county breakdown to understand from previous elections was 55 and 45. Basically, the city accounted for 45% of the countywide vote and Dems got 55% from there. Do some algebra and you'll get the corresponding estimate for the remainder of the county. I don't know if the 61% that Obama got here should really stand out as a total shock or not based on that understanding. But Adrian Garcia's 66% sure as heck does.

The methodology is a bit clunky. I used an overlay of the city boundary and the latest precinct boundaries and made a few judgment calls for split precincts. On average, my hunch is that the bulk of the split precincts would be a drag on Dem performance within the city (many of the ones kicked out have a few apartment complexes in the city with a lot of homes outside the city). This isn't perfect science here, but I'm willing to bet that the performance percentages are within a half a point and that the vote share is pretty much spot-on. If I get any corrections along the way, I'll update.