Harris County: Some Turnout Numbers

I'm nearly done with mapping the state - to the extent that I can get my hands on canvass reports, that is. The state puts out a complete list in a few months that'll send me into another mapping tizzy at that time.

So, for now, I'm pivoting a bit to look at turnout numbers. Among the misconceptions to deal with is the belief among some that "Democrats just didn't turn out." On the surface, it's a ludicrous proposition considering the scope of wins in Harris County by Democrats.

Part of this, I suspect, is the uncommon sensation of seeing an Election Day lull after Early Vote was buzzing. But another part is due to the continued belief that "Hispanics don't vote." Amazing how reductionist logic gets when discussing election results.

Anyways, here's some sample info to nibble on. What I'm doing here is taking a few neighborhoods, picking some prototypical precincts and adding numbers. This isn't a comprehensive view, but one intended to gauge specific effects among certain types of voters.

The first batch of numbers looks at three types of neighborhoods:

Traditional Hispanic Neighborhoods, with a little bit of New Hispanic Neighborhoods
(East End: 65, 72, 154, 226, 231; Northside: 46, 339; Humble: 587, 599, 756)

Anglo GOP turf
(Memorial Villages: 213, 273, 440; River Oaks: 135, 227; Kingwood: 351, 459, 469, 563, 612, 670, 760)

Apartment-heavy Neighborhoods
(Gulfton/Sharpstown: 345, 430, 431, 567; Wilcrest: 559, 620, 626, 727)

I could probably stand to drop Pct. 620 from the last group ... there's ample number of homes in that box. But it's a key precinct of interest to me, so I'm using it for now.

Here's the findings (abbreviations explained at the end):

Hispanic
2004-RV ... 22,800
2008-RV ... 23,357

2004-TB ... 10,564
2008-TB ... 11,853

2004-TO ... 46.3%
2008-TO ... 50.7%

2004-share ... 2.09%
2008-share ...1.97%

Apartments
2004-RV ... 24,051
2008-RV ... 23,520

2004-TB ... 12,195
2008-TB ... 13,711

2004-TO ... 51.0%
2008-TO ... 58.3%

2004-share ... 2.21%
2008-share ...1.99%

Anglo GOP
2004-RV ... 37,534
2008-RV ... 38,202

2004-TB ... 26,832
2008-TB ... 28,166

2004-TO ... 71.5%
2008-TO ... 73.7%

2004-share ... 3.45%
2008-share ...3.23%

Some findings ...

1. Notice that the vote share comes down for each group. This isn't unexpected. If you have, say, 100 homes in the total clusters above and build 10 new homes elsewhere, the share of those original homes will come down. The share of the Hispanic vote comes down the least among all of the clusters identified here.

2. The Anglo GOP precincts' turnout growth is the least of all of these. My sense is that much of the gains possible here were obtained in 2004. The upside for flushing out yet more GOP voters in the traditional GOP territory is diminishing.

3. The turnout gains in the Apartment cluster is impressive. My own precinct showed negligible gains from 2000 to 2004. I shut down my precinct's election knowing full well what it meant for the countywide results: nothing good.

4. Somewhat like the issue of diminishing returns in GOP turnout increases, I think we're approaching a functional ceiling in the Apartment precincts. Those numbers will never approach those with established home-owning communities. At minimum, apartment-dwellers move more often, so there's a greater likelihood of having old addresses still on the books come election day. Throw in economic voting disparities (apartments poorer than Kingwood homeowners ... in general), and I think 60% in the apartments equates very much to 80% in River Oaks.

5. The movement in Voter Registration ... down in the apartments, up everywhere else. The highest? ... Hispanic precincts. What does this say about people who cry every two years about registering and turning out Hispanic voters? I think it stands in something close to a contrast, if not "stark." Yes, it would be fantastic to see turnout in those areas hit at least 60%, but aside from Tony Sanchez' isolated example of Webb County, it's just not been seen. Instead of whining, it would be a little nicer to see some of the professional whiners actually develop a plan, raise the money and do it themselves rather than pout.

With a little luck, I'll take a look at some Asian areas around the county and also some where new development is adding to the voter rolls. I'll also try and add some election results to these just to add some additional flavor. Naturally, I think the bigger story around the county wasn't the shifts in turnout or registration ... it was people just changing their minds.

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Abbreviations
RV - Registered Voters
TB - Total Ballots
TO - Turnout Percentage
Share - % of the county ballots from this region

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Cavaets

1. Note that defining an "Hispanic precinct" is not entirely the same thing as defining "Hispanic voters." What is commonly identified as Hispanic neighborhoods in Harris County usually consist of about 60-65% Hispanic population. The percentage of voters is a few ticks below that.