Comparing Suburbs & Back to Beachheads

Burka, in analyzing Diana Maldonado's win in half of Williamson County on Tuesday:

Democrats established a beachhead in the suburbs ...

Not to boast, but I've made the call since 2005 that Ft. Bend would be the same as an entire county. Slower going there, but the county now has 2 of the 4 County Commissioner districts in Democratic control, Barack Obama just won 48.5% and Justice-elect Jim Sharp won 49.92% (387 votes off from a win). If it's not a beachhead yet, Democratic voters are at least hauling in a fair amount of sand as I type.

The DMN's Theodore Kim notes that Texas' suburban uptick wasn't as pronounced as the national trend. I think that's a fair assessment in and of itself, but the relevant comparison isn't to national trends. I've held the theory that southern suburbs will generally lag northern suburbs. They're younger and more influenced by racial polarization from the 70s and 80s. Exceptions abound everywhere, so finding direct parallels is a challenge. Georgia suburbs have larger African-American population; Michigan's suburbs are likely to be just as defined by race in the 70s and 80s. So, define a relevant point of comparison as you wish for now. Here's the exit polling data of suburban voters from Tuesday:

Nevada ........... 61-37 Obama 
California ....... 56-42 Obama 
Florida .......... 53-45 Obama 
Michigan ......... 52-45 Obama 
Virginia ......... 51-48 Obama 
Iowa ............. 50-49 Obama 
Colorado ......... 50-48 Obama 
Pennsylvania ..... 50-49 Obama 
Ohio ............. 50-49 Obama 
Missouri ......... 48-51 McCain
Missouri-GOV ..... 56-42 Dem 
Georgia .......... 47-52 McCain 
North Carolina ... 44-54 McCain 
NC-Gov ........... 41-56 GOP
Kansas ........... 42-57 McCain
Arizona .......... 38-60 McCain
Texas ............ 37-61 McCain
Louisiana ........ 34-64 McCain
LA-Senate ........ 48-50 GOP 
Oklahoma ......... 32-68 McCain