Senate Polling

Late in the game, so the polling is gelling to form now. Here's what the pickup opportunities look like:

Alaska ... I've spent much of this year believing that our hopes for a win would once again fade at the end. Even with a felon on the ballot, I wasn't immediately convinced that would seal the deal for Begich. Right now, though ... the polling looks like it's a safe win. Begich may do better than +10 here. (D+1)

Colorado ... Never any doubt on this one. Mark Udall is the newest Senator from Colorado and the state returns to dual Dem status. (D+2)

Georgia ... Chambliss is still hanging on by single digits in a ton of polls. If there's an Obama surprise, it might be this one. But color me doubtful on getting a win here.

Kentucky ... another tease for us. Unfortunately, it looks like McConnell will hang on. But man it woulda been a nice way to start the night with him losing.

Louisiana ... Landreiu hangs on for six more. Who would have predicted this more than a year ago?

Minnesota ... a tight race that'll have a lot of attention due to Franken's celeb status and avenging the guy who took on Wellstone. I've always felt that Norm Coleman was an underappreciated talent as far as campaigners go. Polling shows he has a shot of hanging on, but Franken is closing strong. Wait up late for this conclusion.

Mississippi ... way outside possibility of another Obama Surprise if African-American votes boost Musgrove at the last minute. I'm doubtful. Woulda been a nice pickup, though.

North Carolina ... who woulda put money on Kay Hagan offing Liddy Dole more than a month or two ago? Not I. Looks like she might pull it off even though Dole's suggesting that Hagan is godless. Welcome to the new low, folks. (D+3)

New Hampshire ... this one was over when Jeanne Shaheen announced. (D+4)

New Mexico ... this one was over when Tom Udall announced. (D+5)

Oregon ... this one should have been over the day any Dem announced, but Gordon Smith made a game of it early on. Game's been over for a few weeks, though. (D+6)

Virginia ... this one was over when Mark Warner gave up the White House (D+7)

End result - 58-42 Senate on Election Night. My hunch is that Lieberman starts making waves before next weekend. Hard to see him just switching parties outright. The lesson of Jim Jeffords is that once you make that move (and sign the obligatory book deal), your 15 minutes of fame end.

Despite the complete horse's rear end Joe's made of himself from 2007 on, there's a very substantial worldview that deserves a competent voice among elected officials. It's basically the same as Scoop Jackson's. Joe would do a disservice to the ideals he's been pretty clear on from his earlier years if he pulled the plug on all that.

As far as working majorities go, Maine's Snowe and Collins will be the Dems' favorite friends. Throw in some wildcard among Corker (TN), Lugar (IN), Isakson (GA), and maybe even Texas' very own KBH, for any swing votes needed to prevent or end any filibuster threats.

ADD-ON: Speaking of KBH, chances are she may hold onto that Senate seat while making a run for Gov. Funny how people act when confronted with the possibility of handing over power.