Poll Glancing: 9/28/08

Some points of optimism, post-debate, from Nate Silver's latest horse-race roundup:

1. I tend to keep an eye on the two "landslide" numbers for 538's calculations. The movement there looks like a decent read on what level of confidence to have in any given day's scenario. Presently, Obama's up 25.54% - 1.91%. That's about as good as I've ever seen them and naturally, it corresponds to Obama approaching his previous peak performance in the 538 chart.

2. Senate races ... man are some of those getting close. 538's flipped Oregon to "Tilts Dem" and has North Carolina at 51% "Tilts GOP." Don't wake up Liddy Dole, but she might want to think about visiting her supposedly "home" state a bit more often. Present scenario has a D+6 year in Senate elections. When Mary Landreiu is a safer bet for re-election than Frank Lautenberg, you've got the makings of a very odd year.

3. Reviewing some of the close states' Presidential polling, there's one view of the numbers that I tend to factor in that I don't recall seeing elsewhere. Nothing really scientific, just adds to the intuitive feel that sometimes has to go into the guesswork that passes for punditry. But if you take a look at their top 10 polls in the states, I think that view of the results is at least instructive.

For example, Ohio's reading is all over the place for 538's calculations. Right now, the Win % is a toss up. Obama's up in their projections, snapshot, regression, and trend-adjusted view. But McCain is up in a straightforward average.

If you just look at the top 10 they weight, here's what you've got: McCain wins in 6, Obama in 3 and a tie in 1. Sure, maybe it's just one step short of witchcraft, but I'd have a hard time feeling confident of a win in that scenario.

Other swing states:
Nevada ... 7-3 McCain
New Hampshire ... 7-3 Obama
Virginia ...5-5, but Obama owns the top 4
North Carolina ... 7-2-1 McCain
Florida ... 7-3 McCain
Colorado ... 8-2 Obama
Indiana ... 8-2 McCain
Michigan ... 8-1-1 Obama
New Mexico ... 8-2 Obama

In my latest projection, I included Nevada as an optimistic choice for Obama to win. In the end, I think it trails behind Colorado with a lot of the same dynamics going for it - increased Hispanic vote and a lot of suburban Dem territory. Virginia, I included as an Obama win as well. According to the recent trend, it's looking good. Granted, each of these I think could hold a bad surprise in the end. They're not states we're used to running field in for a lot of years. Those tend to be the ones you get overtaken on at the end.