EV Pick 'em: Post-Debate #1

I'm not seeing Ohio flipping yet. There's conflicting polls and there's conflicting poll aggregates. But when I see the number of polls tilting McCain as of late, I can't say that I'm ready to put it in Obama's column just yet. It's still impressive that Colorado and Nevada are polling as well as they are, however.

What this means for the EV count timeline is that it looks like Colorado would be the state to put Obama over the top. Given how close that should be ... and Washington state could get ... things could still get tense despite whatever bump there may be. Goes to show ya how precarious the outcome really is and also how vital a good ground game is.

Realistically, I still think Ohio swings Obama's way toward the end. But it's a big enough state with a lot of different types of voters that the calculus is not entirely simple. Now, if I really wanted to paint an optimistic picture, I could point out that Indiana is still very close in the polls. There's no set of circumstances whereby I was ever ready to think that might be the case this late in the game. Score a partial nod to the "change the map" theorists.

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