Cornyn By Four

As much as it physically pains me to do this, I'm going to have to agree with Paul Burka. In his take on the Rasmussen polling that showed Cornyn leading 47-43, the following can be said:

- there's reason for being sceptical of these numbers
- Rasmussen (and this poll) are still very credible, and hence there may be something to these results
- that something may have more to do with party affiliation than it does Noriega or Cornyn
- if nothing else, it may help Noriega raise the money to make a close race something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Really, the only tangible thing that's changed since the "Cornyn by 16" polling is that McCain has cemented the GOP nomination. Well, that and the bickering continues with no end in sight for our side. Noriega hasn't communicated much on his team's shoestring budget. Cornyn has hit the small-town circuit, but hasn't exactly been Captain Visibility for his part.

Though I'm still doubtful that it fully explains a double-digit drop in partisan enthusiasm and affiliation, this could be but one sign of the challenge in front of McCain. It could also just as well be a fleeting challenge for McCain (where else are dissatisfied social-issue Republicans going to go? ... Obama?). Whether it's enough to warrant a major concern on Cornyn's part remains to be seen with another datapoint. But, as Burka points out, there's not been much going right in GOP campaigns recently. So even if it's not an accurate snapshot, I'm guessing that Team Cornyn isn't taking it too lightly.