Precinct in Review

Just taking a look at my precinct (0430), there's one immediate batty issue with it. The Cumulative Report showed that there were 239 ballots cast. Yet, the voter file I'm looking at has 306 names on the list:

164 Early Vote
2 Mail Ballot
140 In Person

But since it's the best info I've got, here's the breakdown as crossreferenced against voter history:

Not in TexasVAN ........ 42 (14%)
Files to Review ........ 264
1/3 Dem Primary ........ 54
Any Dem Primary ........ 56 (21%)
1/3 GOP Primary ........ 4 (1.5%)
Any GOP Primary ........ 10 
1/4 General Election ... 219
0/4 General Election ... 45
No General Election .... 45 (17%)

I'm not certain what to make of the files that don't cross reference in VAN. Might be suspense list voters, which could raise the number of "No General Election" voters. It's worth pointing out that this precinct is about 3-to-1 Apartment voter to Home voter, so the population tends to be very transitional. Hence, the similar numbers to "1/3" & "1/4" to that of the "Any."

While I have yet to solve the mystery of how 239 ballots becomes 306 names in a voter file, here's some relevant election outcome data to show how that 239 translates to upcoming elections:

2006 Senate - 229-118 Radnofsky
2006 Sup. Crt. - 253-92 Moody
2006 St. Rep. - 268-91 Hochberg

2004 President - 574-234 Kerry
2004 St. Rep. - 570-227 Hochberg

All that to show that, based on this small example, I'm not sold on the turnout being indicative of anything spectacular in terms of the Presidential year results ... but it very well could for non-Presidential year contests. Granted, many of those folks may simply not turn out for a non-Presidential contest, but since they're at least identified, there's a much greater chance that they'll get some form of communication that might lead to them voting.