Liveblogging is Soooo Overrated
... especially when there's work to do.
Let's start with the big news. Hillary wins. And she also picks up the delegate bounty that comes from the vote totals. Still a bloodbath to sort out at a convention, possibly. More on the analysis and breakdown of it all at some point. I do think it's safe to say that Obama definitely has an Hispanic problem. But for now ... a solid win. Discuss among yourselves.
By way of a sidenote ... there's also the fact that we're done talking about 11-0. The new streak is 3-0; advantage Hillary. Based on what we've seen here in Texas, I wish to extend my fullest sympathies to Pennsylvania voters who will likely have to endure far worse over the coming month.
Senate: Noriega wins without a runoff. Great news. Now if we can just see a more concerted effort on fundraising and hope the DSCC sees some merit in working the state.
Congressional stuff ... Larry Joe over Dan Grant. A mild surprise there. But either of the guys should be capable of giving Mike McCaul a good run. A quick check of the map ought to indicate that three of the hottest Congressional races in the state are all somewhat proximate to one another. Could make the airwaves a dangerous place to be if you're a Republican this fall.
The Craddick sweepstakes. Looks like it might have been a push. Borris is out and cheerleaders everywhere will have to concern themselves with Al Edwards taping their every move. On the plus side, we get a tradeoff in seeing Armando Walle knock off Kevin Bailey. Elsewhere, we lose an ally in Pat Haggerty, but have pretty good odds of picking that seat up with Bill Moody's kid on the D-side.
More local, Adrian Garcia wins outright. Most of the usual suspects that should have won, did so. Some minor runoff stuff - including a statewide race. It'll take me some time to look forward to that, however.
For the GOP side, I had a brief moment of hope as it looked like a strong showing by Pasadena Republicans might mean that Nick Lampson would potentially run against Manlove. Sadly, it wasn't meant to be. Shelley & Olson it is. Fine. Duke it out.
For the scandal-plagued DA race, the ordering is Siegler, then Lykos. Better showing than the pre-election poll showed, but still a curious divide between the two candidates. County Judge race was a bit of a letdown. Seeing Sam Nuchia go down in defeat, however ... much better.
Anywho, I'm incredibly worn out from a night of number-crunching. Maps, analysis, whatnot ... all to follow.
UPDATE: I swear, the last thing I want to do is start diving into massive amounts of meaningful thought on this contest, but as a teaser, I'll offer this. Much has been made of Hillary's 3AM ad. I'm not convinced it was a big deal in terms of moving any votes. But I would argue that this ad was the most effective of Hillary's spots. Why? Feel free to speculate or enumerate why I'm wrong. I'll save my answer for after a much-needed nap today.
Oh, and naturally, there should be a discussion of the SNL Effect on today's results. And there's already ample discussion on the NAFTA effect in Ohio. All valid points that warrant some reasoning for how they turned this election back to Hillary's favor. Still, I'm curious to know how much was spent airing this ad in relation to the others. I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this was the most effective product they rolled out. Well, ok ... that and a guy named Bill. Fine whatever. Back to my promise of not getting into it today.
/backing away from keyboard
UPDATE 2.0: Final statewide totals to mull over ...
2,856,813 ... votes cast for Democratic Presidential candidates. I'm too groggy to go digging up a Total Ballot number, but it would have been nice to see an even 3M here. That said, the messier number we've got here is impressive enough.
344,689 ... total ballots cast in Harris County. A far, far cry from my range of 125-150,000. How was I to know that Obama was going to drop a Sanchez-esque sum in the state to try and knock out Hillary? To put this number into perspective, here are some total votes by candidates in Harris County in 2006:
2006 was obviously a low-turnout election, but it's fairly safe to say there are identifiable numbers of voters in the county now to build a significantly easier path to 50%+1 in an off-year cycle. The implications of the primary turnout will have some implication for this cycle, but I think it warrants a little more math before jumping to conclusions. The implications for Gov-year cycles, however, is equivalent to the roadrunner painting a tunnel entrance on a rock for our GOP/coyote friends. In the off chance that 2008 doesn't see the end of Harris County Republican dominance, 2010 very well should.
UPDATE 3.0: An example (by Mimi Swartz) of the type of analysis that just drives me bonkers ...
Certainly, Barack Obama deserves ample credit for the Texas Democrats' return from the dead. He has generated the inspirational enthusiasm here that he has elsewhere. Voter turnout in Texas is expected to be vastly higher than it's been in years: the total turnout here in Harris County in the first four days of early voting -- 50,997 -- was more than the 35,381 total turnout for the entire early voting period of the 2004 primary.
Granted, this is penned before the results, but still. It should no longer be accepted that the sole reason for the boost in turnout is courtesy of Obama. The evidence was on full display across Texas yesterday. Hillary deserves at least as much credit for the boost, but obviously the competitive dynamic of a 50-50 contest is the overriding factor.
UPDATE 4.0: Burka makes a return to idiocy. All the GOP voters that were AWOL in West U were voting in Hillary on the D side? Really? A little proof would just seem to be way too much to ask of Burka.
The video was short, tough and to the point.
Akin to our unofficial motto "Don't Mess With
Texas," Hillary doesn't mess around. She's a
straight shooter and will get the job done.
Obama should not mess with Hillary.