Predictions for Tomorrow

Do I really need to make predictions? I guess for the sake of tradition, why not:

Presidential: Unlike anything Frankie Valli says, "Close" is the word here in Texas. I can't think of a scenario that shocks me, though - be it a Clinton win, an Obama win, or a tossup. Being in a big urban county certainly gives the impression that Obama could carry the state, but here's the areas I'll be watching the most on Primary Day:

- South Texas ... what are Hillary's margins? As always, look for Webb county to be the last to report. But Bexar county could be a big-county harbinger. Whichever comes in first among Hidalgo or Willacy could be interesting as well. And if Webb County comes in close at all, it should mean a bad night for Hillary. If the margins are over 60% and turnout is ample ... game on.

- Northeast Texas ... same as above. If Bowie County is over 60% for Clinton, game on. If it's close, investigate the smaller counties around it - Cass, Morris, Camp. They'll have to be significantly higher to offset any damage that might exist elsewhere in the region.

- Southeast Texas ... is Hillary winning at all? Many of the counties have Dem bases courtesy of African-American voters. Jefferson & Galveston counties are obviously the big enchilada (enchiladi?), but Angelina County might be just as important of a bellwether.

- Red County/College Counties ... if Obama kills in Tom Green (Angelo State), Lubbock (Tech), Denton (North Texas) and Taylor (Abiline Christian), it's a good sign for him. If it's close, then Hillary has some hope in making up big county losses in the flyover counties.

- Suburban/Exurban Counties ... I'd expect this to be Obama country: Ft. Bend, Williamson, Collin, Comal, & Montgomery. If they clock in south of 65%, it might be a sign of a close overall race. Worth looking at the share of the vote coming from these counties as well. My gut instinct is that they aren't significantly higher than 2004. But this is just a good campaign for political prognosticators to just shrug their shoulders.

- Big Urban Counties ... again, I'm expecting to see big wins by Obama in Harris, Dallas, and Travis. El Paso, I'd expect to behave similar to South Texas votes. Bexar County, I touch on in the South Texas analysis above. Tarrant might be a bit mixed, but I think the mix of A-A & non-Hispanic immigrant base in the county combines well with the upscale yuppie vote that should get Obama a win there. Worth a sidenote, Hillary will have to have something to show for the DFW media market. It likely won't come from the big counties, nor the suburban counties. Places like Johnson County aren't big enough to offset it, but it doesn't strike me as a good thing if that market is a sea of Obama-shaded blue.

- Coastal Counties ... Hillary needs to win here. Victoria County and Matagorda County are likely to be the most significant to watch. Percentage margins and turnout boost from 2004 matter greatly.

Bottom line is that Hillary's in much the same boat that Ken Bentsen was in in 2002. You'll lose the big boxes and your best bet is to carry the smaller counties throughout the state. There's math that leads to a win doing that, but if there's any traction in the Red County, College Counties, or the more heavily black East Texas counties, it might not be there.

The simple math just says to watch what Hillary does in the Valley and what Obama does in the big urban counties. No reason to dismiss that view. But those of us that live here will do well to pay attention to some of the more detailed outcomes.

Here in Harris County, we won't have a draft of the canvass immediately available (unless say, someone has the means to share such a thing). But I'll be keeping an eye on the southwest part of the county where I live, as well as the 290/1960 area and Clear Lake/Pasadena. And yes ... there will be maps aplenty once I have numbers in hand. Might try to do some live-mapping of state results to blog with, but I expect the big news outlets to have ample resources to accomplish that in realtime. At worst, I'll try some liveblogging.

The only client contest I'll have an eye on is Adrian Garcia, who I think has good odds of winning outright tomorrow. That might free up a bit of my time. Diane Trautman v John Webb might be an interesting matchup, but I think Diane should do fine. And, as always ... Borris v Edwards. I'll be watching closely, so expect some running liveblog commentary on that one. I'm modestly confident of Borris' odds. The other Craddick-related race, I think goes to the incumbent - Bailey. I'd love to be wrong. Jessica Ferrar holds on. Carol Alvarado wins big. For the GOP, Corbin Van Arsdale holds on (maybe barely) and if he'd like to explore an improved working relationship with people who won't primary him, maybe there's room to start talking.

On the Senate side, I think it might be touch and go for Rick Noriega to win outright - as I certainly hope he does. I'll call it by faith that he wins with 55%.

On the GOP side, it's a coin-toss for predicting the County Judge race. I'll opt for Emmett by a nose, but I don't think I'd put a lot of money on any call there. As a member of the loyal opposition, I'm really not entirely sure who I want to win this one. Maybe Bacarisse since it might mean a few folks switch horses to back Mincberg for November.

The GOP DA race will almost certainly be headed to a runoff. Smart money is on Siegler v Lykos. Only question is the ordering and percentages. Granted it's not my job to understand everything about the internecine warfare of the GOP, but Lykos' unpopularity among GOP voters baffles me. Anyone got a clue why she's not just running away with this contest? Mind you, I'm not complaining. Again, not entirely sure who I want to see win here. Siegler definitely seems like damaged goods, but I think she has enough talent to undo some of that damage. Well ... some of it, anyway.

UPDATE: Kuff adds his takes and here's the picks I was too tired to remember to make originally:

Supreme Court ... Yanez and Houston both win.

RR Commish ... Heckifiknow. I honestly don't even recall which one I voted for. Kuff sees a Hall-Henry runoff. I'll go on an uninformed limb and wildly speculate that Henry's modicum of name ID matter here and he wins hands down.

CD10 ... agreed with Kuff, Dan Grant wins it. It'll be interesting to see if it strictly follows a Houston-Austin divide, though.