Still Climbing

56,623 - Democratic Primary voters through five days.

Right about now, it's seeming likely that we'll break through the low end of my own original estimate of 125,000 and possibly even break the 150,000 mark. And that's just early voting. Still an open question of how many of those are voters just looking to get their vote out of the way early and how much it reflects the overall bump in interest from this cycle. As it stands, though, 300k isn't out of the realm of possibility.

One little added bit of number-crunching worth considering is the percentage of Dem Presidential votes cast in the primary. In other words, what might we expect of this primary bump come November? Below is the result of taking the total statewide votes in the Primary divided by the total votes won by the ultimate nominee in November.

1988 ... 75% (approximate)
1992 ... 59.4%
1996 ... 37.5%
2000 ... 32.3%
2004 ... 29.6%

That's a pretty clear drop in terms of percentage participation. And it's also a curious reminder of the days when there were actually more votes cast in the primaries for President than there were for the nominee in November.

But about all the recent boost indicates is that there exists a range of participation. The record to beat for overall participation is 1.8 million in 1988 (which was the only number I've located, hence the approximation on 1988). The Secretary of State has totals for the Top 15 counties through Day Three clocking in at just over 180,000. I haven't dug into the day-by-day charts to divine a guess for overall counts yet. But I'd expect the 1.8M to be challenged before it's all said and done.

One last number of interest, though. 7.4M votes cast in 2004. If anyone wants to start playing the game of turnout going up or down from 2004 levels, you're a braver soul than I am. But obviously, going from say 2M primary votes to 50% of the 7.4M to eke out a win is something that may also soon enter the realm of the possible. It's definitely a strange year. The only thing left to sort out is exactly how strange.

ADD-ON: Kuff adds his thoughts as well. Like him, I don't think much ever comes of the Wayward Primary Voter concepts that occassionally get tossed around.