Primary Turnout Speculation, Round Three

Houtopia's got numbers, so let's revisit the whole "How many folks'll vote" question (see here and here for my earlier takes). Long and short of it is that we're at 18,146 after two days. It's actually up to 26,723 Dems after three days.

So what does that mean for the total number? Houtope is pulling a reverse Chicken Little here and proclaiming the sky is rising up to 300,000 or higher. Admittedly, once the Presidential schedule started to become obvious here in Texas, I was willing to move into the territory set by another longtime campaign pro who was upping my numbers to 150-180k. After the first day, I was planning on what beer to buy for Houtope for being so gosh darn prescient with his 240k.

But after a little reflection, I'm officially in wait and see mode. This weekend will tell a lot. I don't know that I'd be willing to bet heavily on this notion yet, but the question that's open in my mind is, to what extent are we merely seeing the voting habits shift. In other words, how much of this is accounting just for Primary Day voters voting early ... or folks that normally vote at the end of EV doing so earlier (call it the Obama Rally effect, if you will). Normally, the last two days of Early Vote are the days that go nuts. And maybe that same pattern holds here. The Professor has crunched some numbers that show a rather large percentage of first time primary voters, but not necessarily enough to convince me that we're headed toward 300k ... yet.

Bottom line, if the pattern of vote share holds for the weekend of early voting and for the final two days, we'll have a better read on what's changed here. And it may well be that the pattern holds and the numbers are set for takeoff into 300k-ville. But I'm still a bit skeptical of it for now. I might be willing to move closer to 200k terrain as it stands, but as we saw in the 2004 General Election, when people vote is a somewhat fluid target. And the question that nobody really knows the answer to yet is how fluid it is for this cycle, which we have absolutely no basis of comparison for.

Two points worth firming up right now, though ...

One, I'd have to have to run a shoestring countywide budget in 2010. The larger mail universe that will result from this cycle is a mixed blessing. We can identify Dems better as a result, but we're also mailing out to a primary audience who may never come back for a primary election the rest of their lives.

Secondly, the enthusiasm disparity between the two party electorates is officially a guilty pleasure to savor for this cycle.