Turnout Speculation, Take Two

Following up on this post ...

Kuff offers this speculation:

I think 250K will be closer to the mark than 125K.

PDidd offers a comment on that post that maybe 235k is the number. GDent offers in comments to both that he's taking the over on my bet. It'd be remarkable to see turnout skyrocket that high. If I were someone with a bit more free time on my hands, I might crunch some other states to see if there were any others that tripled their 2004 number and doubled their previous recent-history high.

One point to consider if the numbers do go that far off the chart ... that might be a bad thing for Rick Noriega. Rick's operating with a limited budget as it is. More people headed to the polls who don't know any of the Senate wannabes from a hole in the wall and you've got another runoff with Gene Kelly. I'm not convinced that's a good thing. It's a troubling enough concern if turnout goes up to 150k in Harris County (with a corresponding bump statewide). Take it all the way up to 250k in the county (and, again, a similar statewide effect), and I'll be shocked if Noriega isn't in a runoff. At some point over 100k, it becomes a challenge to identify potential Democratic primary voters. Hence, you're not mailing to them and you're not talking to them. So they don't know you ... or Gene Kelly. Here's hoping I'm at least wrong on this one.

I'll try to get around to crunching some more numbers to compare. Till I see otherwise, I'm feeling fairly confident with a guess of 150k.

George Strong (remember him?) seems to have some of the same concern over high turnout.

And if you are a down ballot candidate in a contested Democratic March 4th primaries you might be just a little worried about voters going in to vote for either Hillary or Barack and not knowing who is who on the rest of the ballot. Sometimes these primary voters just vote for a name that sounds familiar. Sometimes for or against a name that sounds Hispanic. Sam Houston and Gene Kelley might have something going for them. Houston is well respected and Kelley is not. But Kelley has won or been in a runoff many times due to his name. Rick Noriega might have an advantage with his name and his many deserved endorsements, but watch out for some upsets cause by voters not knowing who they are voting for.