Place Yer Bets: Harris County Primary Turnout

Houtopia's guess for Harris County Democratic turnout ....

Turnout in the March 4th Democratic primary is expected to explode, from about 80,000 in the 2004 primary to perhaps three times that this year.

I've debated this point with him offline, but I think it's a point that warrants some rampant speculation online. I think there's no question we get a boost in turnout for our side, but I'm not convinced that it'll reach a full tripling of 2004

Here's the recent history of Harris County turnout. The first two results are from the county numbers, so I've got a more accurate reading on total ballots. The earlier two readings are from the SecState's office, so I've only got total votes cast for the Presidential race to go by.

2004 - 78,692 total ballots
2000 - 56,168 total ballots
1996 - 75,600 total votes cast
1992 - 139,481 total votes cast

Naturally, there's a huge shift depending on what's at stake in each cycle. I can see something similar to 1992 happening - let's just call it a doubling of 2004 to allow for the change in Dem electorate and also the increase in population since then. 150,000 would easily be my own starting point for total ballots in the county.

Could it go significantly higher than that, though?

It's worth adding the asterisk that points out we're in somewhat uncharted territory. But let's look at some comparable outcomes this cycle so far. Two states that might serve as comparisons are New Hampshire and California. The first because they voted in the wake of Iowa's decision; the second because it's a similarly large state that also voted in the wake of some definition of the race and has a recognizable demographic makeup that compares somewhat to Harris County.

NH-2008 - 284,104
NH-2004 - 217,965
(a 30% increase)

CA-2008 - 4,060,731
CA-2004 - 2,738,453
(a nearly 50% increase)

Given those comparison points, I find it even harder to see a tripling of turnout. And it may not even warrant a doubling of turnout in light of these two examples. But given the lack of meaningful primaries to come through Texas in years past, I think 150k stands as the potential high-water mark of expectations. A more reasoned guess based on the numbers presented here might be somewhere closer to 125k (a 50% boost).

One additional complication to the calculus here in Harris County is that there are competitive races on the southside African-American community - May Walker, Hilary Green, and the Miles-Edwards rematch all cover much the same turf. There's a theory that suggests this many heated contests boosts turnout and may compound the Presidential boost. From everything I've seen before, there's nothing to support that claim. May Walker's crowded race in 2004 didn't warrant a significant boost in her district. Miles-Edwards saw a slight bump in 2006, but that was in a year where there was little-to-no-reason to vote in the primaries throughout the county.

Add in the fact that there's an entire slate of candidates for our side this time, several of which are contested primaries ... and I still stand by my belief that the impact will be microscopic at best. With all due respect to the fine candidates running, there's nothing that drives turnout better than a Presidential race and the number of candidates I've met that could potentially impact turnout in a primary on the strength of their own campaign, I can count on one hand ... and still give a good Boy Scout pledge with the leftover fingers.

So there will be no impact on the southside community from the contested primaries and there will be no impact from the full slate of Democratic races going on. Simply put: "It's the Presidential, stupid." And that would seem to peg us somewhere in the ballpark of 125-150,000 ballots/votes cast in this year's primary.

Any other guesses out there?