Weekend Pick-ems

South Carolina ... Obama wins, probably big (ie - over 10pts). My sense is that with one early win, Obama can possibly count on some increased gravitation with southern black voters. Maybe that's a national trend as well, but southern blacks, in particular, have been a critical cog of Clinton's support. She can afford to lose some and still put together a winning coalition. But I don't see a way to systematically lose them en masse and hang on. It remains to be seen whether South Carolina is a one-off event on this count ... or if it's the canary in the mine. My sense is that it's somewhere between - Hillary manages to split them in some states, not so much on others. That helps translate to the notion that this race could be a marathon between the two. Team Sunshine will finish third in the state of his birth. That's definitely a bad sign leading up to the vote in his home state.

For the GOP, it's obviously McCain v Huckabee here. But how Fourth-Place-Fred and Mitt Romney play as spoilers strike me as equally important. I don't want to venture a prediction here. Obviously, partisan that I am, I'd prefer to see Fred win here and really drag out the question mark that is the Republican nomination. But if forced, I'll go with a slim McCain win. What the heck. I'd love to be wrong and see a Huck win, fwiw.

Nevada ... Easy call first. Romney wins for the GOP. Again, the happier outcome would be to see a Ron Paul shocker here. Sorta ties into his support among prostitutes all too well. But everyone knows that real people (as opposed to technorati search results) don't support Ron Paul for President ;-)

For the Dem side, I think the polling has been just a ton of garbage. It seems to me that the result will come down to how much of a hedge Hillary's early organization holds on against Obama's momentum. Based on hope, I'll take a Hillary win on any count. But I think we're going into this one blind. If I wake up and see Obama wins by 20, I don't think I'd count it a surprise given that the biggest union in the state can literally caucus while clocked out for a lunch break at their place of employment.

The more important picks are easier for me: Patriots v Packers in the Super Bowl. Anything else would be a letdown. Well, granted the notion of the Patriots playing the younger Manning would have some interesting story lines. I just think it's meant to be that Brett Favre goes down in a noble effort that has us all on the edge of our seats as to whether the only man who can beat the Patriots has more gray hair than myself.

Back to Presidential politics, though. I'll confess this much: I totally bought into the notion that Obama left Iowa with something like 101% of all the momentum in the free world. I anticipated a double-digit loss for Hillary in NH in the late-betting office pool. Obviously, I'm pleased as punch to be wrong on that one.

Now, I say that because I also picked Hillary to win every dang primary and caucus there is. Who knows, maybe I'll only be off by one or two when it's all said and done. But I do think the race has fundamentally changed with Iowa. The two races you see here are too minor to be so much as a microcosm for what it means by Super Tuesday.

David Corn think that Tsunami Tuesday does Obama in. I'm not convinced. In several of the larger states, Obama's rise charts like a hockey stick. The races have tightened and California has a history of being a wildcard in primary politics. If southern blacks break for Obama like they are in SC, there's a lot of states for him to pick up on that alone. I'll have to revisit my Feb. 5 picks as they're closer on the calendar. But right now, I don't know which position warrants the most optimism.

UPDATE: Oh, and just so I don't self-inflict another screed about how not giving John Edwards any run means I somehow opposed everything "progressive" ... dude's on a Coast to Coast tour. And he only visits one coastal city. How progressive!!!