Counting Iowa (D)

For the good guys (and gal) ...

Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1781 of 1781

I'd probably want to start off with an obligatory "ouch" for Hill, but I think I'm going to save that for Chris Dodd. Not sure what it does to the ego when you finish behind "Uncommitted."

Apparently, Dodd and Biden are headed out. So it's a 4-person race ... likely through Super Tuesday. For all intents and purposes, however, it's a 2 person race, with Edwards not quite on life support. As for what it means five days from now, that's the million dollar question. To the extent that any of the staff names meant anything to me in Iowa, I can't claim that any stood out as rock stars in my mind. In New Hampshire, however, Hillary's had the top talent locked down for about 4 years or more. In particular, Karen Hicks is front and center these days.

I'm not convinced that a close third behind Edwards is life-threatening to Hillary, but a loss of any variety in NH officially puts her headed to ICU. Reasoning is thus ... the biggest story out of Iowa isn't even who won or didn't win. It's the turnout. The Dem turnout alone would have represented the highest statewide total of both parties. This may not have been the pitchfork rebellion that Edwards wanted, but the caucus-goers definitely have cattle prods in hands. It now should be declared official that this is another change election and that Democrats are once again extremely motivated.

One read on the Iowa turnout might be that the money spent in Iowa drove the numbers - $10-15M by HRC & Obama. Tack on Edwards taking up residence and you've got the equivalent of the most hyper-expensive Senate race. To which I say ... "maybe, but." The "but" is that the money going into the race isn't happening in isolation. It should be viewed as a function of the enthusiasm out there, as well. In other words, score one for another virtuous cycle. I think it remains an easy call that Dem voters, on the whole, are motivated.

The numbers in the upcoming states should now start to move. Biggest leading indicators will have to be Nevada and some of the bigger Super Tuesday states where Hillary still has commanding leads. Hillary's odds of winning New Hampshire will likely depend on her abilities to adapt. Thus far, she's proven better when the clock is running slowly - listening tours and perseverance don't translate into a front-loaded primary calendar. How she performs while making adjustments on the fly is going to be tested like never before. It's that skill that saved both George Bushes in New Hampshire before. If Hillary's really learned well, it'll show over the next five days. Until we see some sign of that, Obama has to be viewed as the favorite in NH.

Oh, one last thing ... all those who suggested that Iowa wouldn't matter or wouldn't determine much? The early verdict on that one shouldn't be viewed as kind.