The Republican Presidential Primary (part one)

At once, this is easier and more difficult than looking at the Democratic contest.

Iowa
And here's why. I think it's a given that Huckabee wins here. Everyone not named Mitt Romney wants Huckabee to prevent Romney from starting off 2-0. As close as the race really is and as relatively unorganized as Huckabee is in this state, my sense is that the non-viables will move very heavily to Huckabee. Still, if I'm assigning probabilities to the outcome, I think that warrants maybe between 55-60% probability. Romney's still been at this a long time, is still willing to pour his own money in, and isn't all that terribly far behind in the polls (grains of saly be damned).

Still, if Romney manages a win, it goes a long way to securing his place as the anti-Huckabee. That's the contest he and McCain are really engaged in. Romney has everything to lose in that quest ... McCain everything to gain. And speaking of McCain, a strong third place finish probably boosts him in New Hampshire. Given his campaign's interest in shifting delegates to Huckabee, that may be asking much. But he should still be in fair shape for a distant third, which I'm sure he'll try to spin.

If there's any surprises outside of that, look for it to have reverberations in New Hampshire. And include a wildcard idea like Ron Paul finishing third among those.

New Hampshire
This one is all Romney vs McCain right now. There's room, I think, for a third contender to alter that calculus. But the top two should still hold here. It remains a question as to how much Huckabee can gain here. My hunch is "not much." He's around 10% with all the gushing national press he's gotten. That places him within the margin of error of an asterisk. Maybe an Iowa win for him boosts him a bit, but Huck ain't Pat Buchanan. My sense is that he'll have a hard time topping 20% here regardless of what he does in Iowa. His peak poll numbers to date is 14% in two polls done at the height of Huck-mania.

If McCain wins here, look for the "McCain Surge" story to have legs beyond the Granite State. If Romney wins, look for McCain to fade slowly as his lack of fundraising support snowballs. I think there's reason to expect the outcome to be close between the two. But a close second does Romney no good. A close second for McCain still leaves him some wiggle room to claim to being the Second Comeback Kid.

Nevada
As with the case of the Dem read, I have to take a heavy dose of salt with the polls on this one. Maybe the pollsters are as smart as some of us hope they are, but this is a relatively new game in town to poll for. At minimum, the change in relevance for NV is a dramatic shift from the past and I've got to think there's a dynamic there that makes it tougher to poll. Adding to that is the fact that the polls have been all over the place for the GOP.

That said, it looks like a three-way: Romney, Huck, & Rudy. The polls have shown huge leads for Rudy and Rudy, with Huck getting a rising tide into the Top Three. Pollster's averaging shows Rudy with some life here. If he wins it, look for Florida to be a hot contest. If he loses, look for Rudy to be desperate in South Beach.

South Carolina
For all the chatter about McCain's resurgence, it seems to have little evidence of appearing in South Carolina. Maybe that changes a bit with a win in NH. But McCain runs into a Huckabee problem outside of NH. Suddenly, all those nice glowing remarks about Huck in Iowa will have to be erased from the talking points.

I can see this one turning into a three-way mess with Huck, Romney, and McCain. And as it stands, that's the smarter bet. Granted, even some slight alterations in the perceived momentum can alter that. But Romney still has some life here. Huck is rising with his national tide. And McCain is a question mark right now.

Perhaps a bigger question is where Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani are by this time. They're not exactly polling insignificantly here. A drop out by either might boost McCain somewhat. But it's still early enough that they might all see SC as their last ride (or, in Rudy's case: Florida).

Florida
Rudy's last stand, obviously. Huck's rise emphasizes the nature of Florida politics - that there are really two Floridas (apologies to John Edwards). Assuming Huck comes out with a win and Rudy's still polling well after his early losses, look for this to be close. Rudy's hold on the top is still somewhat perplexing, but it's worth emphasizing that many of the leads in the early states are at or around 30%. Until a candidate can start locking in some 50+% numbers, this is headed to a wild and tough-to-predict nomination race.

A Huck win here is critical for his chances on Super Tuesday. I've not seen any reports on Huck raising money better in light of his media love-fest. But we should know soon enough where the money race stands. Without a win, Huck might have enough viability to hang on, but it's tough to see him winning. Adding to his challenge is what happens to dropout candidates. It's not difficult to see Fredheads favoring Huck somewhat as a second choice. But Rudy supporters?

Pre-Super Tuesday
My sense right now is that Huck should have a fairly good opportunity in the southern states - and maybe some others like Kansas. The challenge in analyzing the GOP side is that this has the potential to be a long ride for maybe as many as four major candidates. As much as I tend to be dismissive of early chatter about brokered conventions, it's worth at least a few lawyers' time to brush up on the matter.

As it stands, I think I see the field here going in with a very unsettled pack. That's why I think the race may come down to very minute interpretations of momentum. The easiest path out of that is if McCain catches fire in NH, wins pretty handily ... then wins SC and mounts at least a comeback of sorts in Florida. That bodes well for him on Super Tuesday so long as he's got money.

Money, however, is what keeps Mitt Romney around. He'll have it to spend. But he's still a relative enigma outside of the early states. Which aids Rudy, who's at least got name ID, some positive brand value ... and a confounding ability to remain at the top of polls beyond the early states. The more muddled the race is on Feb. 4, the better it is for Rudy.

I'd look for the results on Super Tuesday to be scattered, with Romney, Huck, McCain, & Giuliani picking up gains. Again, minute reads on momentum will matter most.

Trying to look at Super Tuesday from the vantage point of a surging McCain or a strong Huckabee or even a resilient Romney somehow doesn't make the task easier to sort it all out. Of those scenarios, I think McCain's could be the clearest to follow up with a strong Super Tuesday.

Multiplying the problem is that it's not difficult to see at least three - and possibly four - strong candidates come out on the other side of Feb. 5. That makes the delegate math next to impossible to lock things up before the convention. Still, I dismiss the notion of a brokered convention. I think it gets sorted out one way or another - whether between candidates forming an alliance or by the party herding cattle on Super Delegates and anyone else they can move.

I wish I could say with some sense of probability what that might mean for who the nominee is. My sense early on was that Rudy couldn't win the nomination, but would be a heavy favorite for VP. I might prefer to change that VP pick for McCain, but it's not a given that he's not the nominee. I think it's easier to read the path through the summer if it looks like McCain's the nominee. He's a known quantity. Though it's tougher for me to see Romney as the nominee, I think it's a challenge to see how his summer plays out. He's polling incredibly poorly in head-to-heads, but I think he has some rebound potential that could boost him in the minds of people who don't take a side on Mormonism as an issue. Given his innate talents as a campaigner, I think he's more dangerous than polls presently suggest. Then again, I'd love to be wrong and win an election by 20%, only to watch National Review devote an issue to how the election was stolen. Giuliani as nominee? Improbable to fathom, to be sure. But not out of the question as things stand. He's fading, but he's not completely done. Still, as a campaigner, he's a flake and my hunch is that it won't play well for November. His ads, also, have been horrendously bad. For the time being, consider the nomination a jump ball. I'll have to make a note of revisiting this contest after New Hampshire to see if anything's cleared up by then.