Huckmentum (and the rest of 'em)

» Newsweek: A Pastor's True Calling (Holly Bailey and Michael Isikoff)

I don't claim to be possessor of all knowledge about evangelicals when it comes to my Democratic brethren. But I've always found it laughable when I read some of my cohorts credit the likes of Dobson, Robertson and (previously) Falwell for GOTV efforts among culturally conservative Christians. Neither was really a GOTV maven and both men saw ample distance put between themselves and the Reagan class of Republican officials. What this article seems to suggest, however, is that maybe it's not them who are the kingmakers, but perhaps James Robison, instead. At least among the latest iteration of Republicans, Robison now can claim to have played a role in establishing George W. Bush and Mike Huckabee. His role along these lines does also go back to Reagan, as the article suggests.

What stood out for me the most in this article, however, was how utterly untested Huckabee has been to this point. I've not adequately measured how prominent the Wayne Dumond story has fared in the GOP debates, but I'll be severely disappointed if Romney's not made any mention of it.

The tales of Huckabee's bitter streak are interesting, but I'm curious how anyone expects that to play out in public. I mean, I remember seeing Bill Clinton erupt on video at word that Jesse Jackson had endorsed someone else in 1992 - all to no effect anywhere. The matter strikes me as inside ball and difficult to really play out. I could be wrong, but color me doubtful on that as being overly significant for anything more than color commentary on Mike Huckabee, the human being.

I remember going through all of the Presidential announcement videos some time ago. I played Brownback's video for a friend who thought it was compelling enough that maybe Brownback would be a potential darkhorse. Not to claim 100% prescience here, but I didn't agree at all. Brownback is too weird; went from evangelical to Opus Dei; and just comes across as not quite speaking the same language as most evangelical church-goers. Huckabee at least manages that part very smoothly, which was part of the reason why I offered that he'd be the likelier darkhorse possibility for the GOP side.

It'll be interesting to see what Huck does for money now that his numbers are gaining. I think Iowa is just about ready to be handed to him. I wouldn't worry much about his disparate lack of organization vis-a-vis Romney. You'll recall that Robertson won the state just fine on the strength of motivated cultural conservatives. Watching the video on the Newsweek article in addition to his week with Kenneth Copeland and a much earlier stop at Gateway Church in Southlake, TX ... Huck's got the routine down.

At some point, he'll have to move beyond platitudes and get into some specifics. In a way, his ascendancy could be viewed as a remarkable swat at the traditional brand of conservatism in evidence from Reagan to Bush. Tax cuts as an issue would be diminished; populist policy takes toward business would be in vogue; and the GOP mood on trade could face a tipping point that might turn some Senator's talk into actual votes under a presumptive Huckabee administration. On the surface of things, that's an outright rejection of the past 7 years of George W. Bush.

Still, evaluating the probability for Huck is problematic. There's that issue of money, for one. If it doesn't come in, then Huck can only go so far when the MegaPrimaries click. He could do well in some states where the attention and money of other candidates doesn't let them compete with Huck's narrative. Mainly, that bodes well for Huck in the south.

As for the first four states in the primary/caucus calendar, we get the following signs:

- Iowa: Huckabee ascendant ... a big win should be in the cards for him there. Even if his Q-rating crests a bit, a win by any margin would represent an incredible feat for him.

- New Hampshire: Romney still holding on - his odds should be good, but that can change in a heartbeat. For now, I'd bet on Romney being the 2008 Comeback Kid in NH. Whether that's a win or a close second, we'll see.

- Nevada: Tough to call. Romney & Giuliani are doing well there. But that'll shift once IA & NH put their cards on the table. This is clearly Giuliani's best shot for an early win. I'd be shocked if he doesn't push to make that come to fruition.

- South Carolina: This could be Huckabee's second win in the First Four. I think that's what should strike fear in the other candidates. But what really jumps out to me is that Romney has some life here at all. Pollster's average has him in the lead. RCP has Huck in the lead with RomneyGiulianiFred in second. I'm somewhat mystified by Romney's traction here. I want to say he'll fade, but I'm not going to do so quickly.

Beyond that, it's a question of how long before McCain drops out (along with my inexorable taunts at those who predicted a landslide McCain victory in 2006), where his voters gravitate toward, and who's not bleeding the most. I'm not sure who I'd pick if I were putting money on it. I still think Giuliani's got life, but that's expecting his numbers to hold firm in the MegaPrimary states, which isn't terribly realistic. Will they hold firm enough? That's the bigger question. If not, then it should come at the expense of Huckabee's strength solidifying - enough so that it might well be him who gets the nomination. Otherwise, start dusting off the procedural handbooks for a brokered convention. Just in case.

Overall, this race strikes me a bit like the old Southwest Conference football rivalries. Everyone's bloodying up one another and there's clearly not one candidate who just frightens the Dems. Giuliani's got his mistress problems; Huckabee's got a Wayne Dumond; Romney's got a weathervane for a spine; McCain's just old and boring. Really, the person I should sympathize with the most is Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick, who thinks that any of them will be the saving grace of his partisan fortunes here in Texas.

ADD-ON 1.0: Meacham's article is also worth the time spent on it. I find the gripe about Romney not including atheists to be asinine, but Meacham's not the only one registering that complaint. The rest of it does a pretty decent job of weaving Romney's speech into both the current and historical contexts to which it belongs. In sum, I think it's every bit as flawed as Kennedy's was and by no means as effective. I find myself in the odd company of Robert Novak on this one.

ADD-ON 2.0: Jay Cost elaborates a bit on Huckabee v Romney in Iowa and why Huck's lack of organization isn't all that much of a concern. He adds a good point about Huck's polling among previous caucus-goers that seems to seal the deal on any other argument for Huck to win.

His overall take is more nuanced, though. His point that Romney seems to have a floor of 20% and how that's an asset in a 5-person race is certainly valid. That'll likely shore him up for Iowa. But a distant second finish is likely to suck some of the wind out of his NH rescue hopes - not to mention what it does to some of the Feb. 5 states.