Other Assorted Predictions ...

Since I'm now officially "old," I'll add some other assorted crotchety predictions for fodder ...

AL5: If I wanted to weasel my way out of a definitive prediction, I'd say that any two of Zaf, JoJo, & Christie make the runoff. I could qualify it some more by stating that I'm not even all that sure Christie supplants Tom Nixon as the westside GOP favorite. Nixon didn't do too poorly on that side of town in the special election in the middle of the year. Zaf's got money. JoJo's likely got some work done in the Afr-Am communities, plus her prior run was semi-decent for her. She's also gotten some impressive endorsements ... some of them even real. I'll commit to this for a solid prediction: JoJo & Christie. But I'm not sure the probability is anywhere near close to 50%. Maybe 30-35%. Zaf & Christie right behind it and Zaf & JoJo coming in third. Nixon scenarios maybe in the single digits. Dual-Republican scenario ... maybe 2-3%. Obviously, not an easy one to call. I think Zaf's been beat up in the media, but when it's all said and done, the media HE sends out really matters more. If the campaign hasn't over-reacted to the negative stuff they've gotten, they'll do well. I'll go so far as to say Christie leads the vote-getters Tuesday night. I won't go so far as to say he wins the runoff, though.

AL3: The rematch of Noriega vs Morales features a better Melissa and a weaker Roy. Still, I run pessimistic this time of year and I'll openly state this: I'm worried. I'd have liked to have seen Mel win with a more resounding foot-stomp to Roy's political throat earlier in the year. We got 55.64%. Two ways to read the tea leaves for this round. One is that there's more casual city voters, and hence, more D-friendlies that should love Mel more than Roy. The paranoid way, however, is that this is still a very low information election once you get beyond voters in Rick's House district and the small gaggle of Dem activists about town.

If I go by the yard sign primary idea (a measure I'm no big fan of, but still), the signage is wonderful for Mel on the east side parts I've been through and abysmal on the southwest side where I live. Mel didn't do as well as she could have and should have there last time. It's not the be-all, end-all in terms of vote share for the city, especially with no hot contest in District F. But it's territory that she should have won then. Maybe she wins it this time. The fact that Roy has less dough, fewer friends, and a little less backing from GOP honchos is certainly encouraging. But if it's me, I'd want to stomp this guy so bad he never dreams of running for anything ever again. Again ... that's just me.

Carol's replacement ... I offered up some low-probability endorsement picks in AL5 and some candor in AL3 in order to get a pass here. I just dunno. I think it's also that it'll be a close one ... which may come as a shock to anyone who limits their knowledge of Hispanic politics to Marc Campos. Actual Hispanic Dems on the ground are endorsing Marron. That may not put it away for him, but it's something that hasn't gotten enough attention around town.

Addie's replacement ... Right now, I'm leaning towards picking a runoff between the two Rs. Unless Manisha wrote herself a big check after the 8-day reports, I'm skeptical that there's enough in the game to make up some ground. I'm also hoping to be wildly off-base here. Best of luck to Team Mehta in any event.

Other assorted guesses: I think I've now counted slightly more than one handful of Griff yardsigns about town. I'm not sure that political memories as long as mine re: the opposition in order for him to pull an Andrew Burks and do really well in an election despite spending jack squat. Baseline might be about 20-25% for any challenger. It'll be interesting to see what total Griff gets, though.

Peter's write-in competition ... I gotta admit, after reading that utterly embarrassing blog of Peter's about how tough it is to live on $23/day when he's sleeping under his Picaso at home, I'm almost willing to go through the trouble of writing in someone's name. Whatever, he'll run for mayor starting Wednesday. That kinda limits how long we'll have to "plan" on having him around.

Clutterbuck ... Like the mayor, I tend to agree that Anne is 'honest to the core.' I got to see that firsthand. Chick came into a room full of Dems and told 'em why she was proud to be a Republican while the other guy pandered. She's also had the wherewithal to state openly that she's a Diet Coke aficionado over the beloved homestate beverage of Dr Pepper. I certainly don't agree with her on everything - certainly not THAT, but I don't doubt her honesty. I also don't doubt her ability and heart for her district. She's an asset to my next-door-neighbor district. I'd vote for her if I could. And she even makes a decent witch, if I may say so. Hard to buy her as being evil, though.

Oh, and Ron Green wins. Yeah, there's a tough pick.