Two for HISD Bonds ...

Two endorsements of the HISD bond up on the ballot tomorrow.

One, from Hizzoner. But with a stinger of a cavaet. Who had this outcome in Matt Stiles' betting pool?

Nothing is more important to our city, state and nation than the education of future generations. I personally have seen schools within the Houston Independent School District in need of repair or reconstruction. So I support the issuance of bonds by the Houston Independent School District to pay for these school improvements. The alternatives would be to increase tax rates by financing improvements without the use of debt or to allow schools to deteriorate even more.

I urge citizens not to vote against HISD's bond issue in protest. Students should not suffer because of the errors of individuals within school governance and administration.

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Houstonians should be proud that we have avoided the fate of the majority of the "Top Ten" largest U.S. cities, where their major urban school districts were placed in receivership. Some cities have suffered from school board turmoil because of ethnic divisiveness. Houston has avoided these fates, and HISD has made significant strides in academic progress with innovations such as site-based management, collaboration with businesses and nonprofit groups, and permitting students more choice among schools, including magnet schools. If those who are concerned about school closure and consolidation join with the substantial portion of voters who vote against every bond issue, and HISD is unable to upgrade its aging facilities, what kind of message will that send to parents, teachers, students and people with children who may want to move within our City center?

My Houston Hope program is resulting in hundreds of new homes being built in neighborhoods where few had been built before, giving us hope for reversing declining school enrollments and avoiding costly leapfrog development. Obviously there is some point at which a school is "too small," although many fine schools operate at smaller sizes than what HISD today considers a minimum. But if HISD decides to close neighborhood schools, over the community's objection, without viewing that measure as the last resort, then voters across the City in the next school board elections will hear from a new political action committee I will form this year. That is not a threat. It is a promise to those who join me in supporting the HISD bond issue despite their reservations about consolidation plans.

Another endorsment arrives in the inbox via my State Rep:

I voted early, and I voted FOR the bond issue. One message I've heard consistently is that money for education should be spent in the classroom. This bond issue is almost entirely for classrooms and school buildings. (A small amount, around $16 million of the total of $805 million, is proposed for renovations to existing stadiums.)

Anyone can always find a reason to vote against any bond issue. But in the end, this is about the schools that children in Houston will attend for at least the next 30 years. Our schools need to be safe, positive places where students will want to attend and teachers and staff will want to work. This bond issue will continue a process to make them so.

Jennifer Radcliffe eggs on people like me to make a prediction. Bear in mind I tend to operate a bit pessimistically this time of year. But I think it barely passes. Like something less than 55% maybe. In terms of probability, I'd peg it as a 25% chance of losing, 15% chance of going over 60%, and the rest of the 60% probability on hovering around 55%. In the process of crunching numbers, it's entirely possible to win only 40% in the northern Afr-American precincts, hit just over 50% on the south side (where animosity is not quite as fervent) ... and still win. Last time around, those boxes went 75%+ for the last bond. Bumping the election to an odd-year cycle automatically knocks off about 5% due to the makeup of voters - last bond won with about 65%. So if it goes over 60%, it'll be something of a miracle. A loss isn't out of the question, but I still say it squeaks out a win.