Dem. Veepcasting

» Democratic Strategist: Thinking Veepstakes (J.P. Green)

Although it may seem odd, I'm not inclined to believe it's too early for this. Let's face it, the race for 2008 President is likely to be over by the end of February - a mere five months from now. That said, there's a few points of agreement with Green's list here. My own short takes are as follows:

Richardson - good pick, will likely be the top buzz for the gig. But his libido issues are a negative that Green overlooks. The quotes by his own Lt. Gov. aren't entirely helpful, either. All that said, I'd put him at just under 50% likelihood.

Dodd - a quality pick, no doubt. But again - let's face facts. The nominee is likely to be HRC. Does Dodd accomplish anything for her? I'm not so sure. Dodd's a good guy, but I'd put this at around 10% probability.

Feingold - Interesting addition to Green's list and he makes a good point that it helps seal up Wisconsin a bit. Problems are his tin ear toward southern moderates & conservative Dems. Given a potential opposing ticket topped by Mitt Romney, I'd hate to even the playing field back up so quickly. That said, I like Feingold & he adds something genuine to a HRC campaign. Not sure about a probability for this, though, since it probably hinges on what Hillary thinks of the guy. And that, I've got no clue to go by.

The Three Rookies - Green lists McCaskill, Webb, & Brown. There's a case for going down this route and I'd love to see Webb, in particular. Only downside to that is the "Two Senators" boredom factor. Plus, Webb can be a bit volatile on the trail. Helps when he's the lone candidate. Not so much when he's the #2. Then again, he's also a good soldier. Dunno, but I think the idea will have to be tempting to go with one of these three.

My primary additions focus a bit on the state houses:

Kansas or Arizona: Should HRC pick either Napolitano or Sebelius, there's a Gore factor here in that either would affirm some of the best qualities of Hillary. Another female, some executive experience to sorta reflect Hillary's "Responsibility Gene." AZ might have a bit of swing in it; KS likely will have zip. But I'm not sure it matters. This type of move helps across the board. Sebelius, I believe, has been vetted by the Kerry folks. My hunch is that she'd be the preferred pick. If I had a vote, I'd probably cast it for her. She's done a great job in her time as Governor in splitting everyday conservative Kansans with the nutjob rightwing fringe. I've got to think there's something to that that helps us outside of Kansas.

Wes Clark: The name will likely be buzzed about. Wes Clark will be a principal one doing the buzzing. He'll campaign openly for it. I sincerely hope he's not the pick, but I have a hard time believing that he wouldn't be a top consideration. Maybe on par with Richardson ... and maybe that's me being pessimistic about it. If I had a veto, I'd use it here. Not unforeseeable that I'd have to tough it out if he's the pick, though.

Vilsack/Bayh: The DLC angle, basically. Vilsack has to have some ranking and he's a bright guy. Only problem is that about 10 people outside of Iowa know that. Bayh will likely be on some media lists and there's been a long history of appreciation in the Clinton camp for him. To me, the downside is that he helps in one state - Ohio - and nowhere else. I've got no idea which of the two ranks higher in the mind of HRC, but I'm hoping Vilsack does. Probably wouldn't be a bad second choice in my mind, but his benefit to the campaign needs to be sold at some point. Otherwise, he's a lock as a cabinet officer unless and until Tom Harkin or Charles Grassley retire. A better angle toward this end, in my mind, would be to go with Florida Senator Bill Nelson. At least that helps you pick up a swing state.

Beyond any of those, I've gotta think that only niche interest picks (or a longshot consideration like Gov. Schweitzer) are out there. Like most folks, I don't see any of the Big Three taking the #2 gig. Edwards, in particular, ought to be banned from consideration. So, perhaps in terms of probability, I'd have to think that Richardson, Clark, Sebelius, & Vilsack are among the top five for consideration. At least there's a tad more intrigue over the selection since it's not a given that the runner-up in the nomination process is going to be the leading choice for VP.

As for the GOP side, let's just say the waters are far murkier at this point ...