Ghost War II

» WaPo: A Potentially Winning Tactic, With a Warning (Walter Pincus)

Anyone with a sense of history ought to see the parallels here between Afghanistan during the '80s and Iraq today.

In early 2006, U.S. government experts disagreed over whether to seek cooperation from the Iraqi tribes in what was then termed the Sunni Triangle. Some wanted to gain military control over the area and wipe out resistance. Others proposed arming selected Sunni sheiks who were showing opposition to al-Qaeda in Iraq's own foreign forces, knowing this could harm the longer-term effort to create a unified Iraqi identity. Today, the support of Sunni tribal leaders against al-Qaeda in Iraq is hailed as one of the few successes from the U.S. troop increase this year.

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However, the study warned that with two of the tribes, such cooperation "should not be considered as support for, or even acceptance of, coalition activities." Instead, it occurs "for no other purpose but to rid the area of a common enemy, al-Qaeda and its allies." With the third, it cautioned, "the recognized leadership plays both ends of the insurgency, coalition versus the insurgents, against the middle while maintaining a single motive, to force the coalition to leave Iraq."

In short, the study's experts pointed toward what has become a short-term U.S. success, while warning more than a year ago -- as the intelligence community did last week -- that it is all temporary.