Clinton 36,000

Great point here by Kuff (from his moonlighting gig). Basically, three normally-Republican states polled by Survey USA - three iterations of Clinton results here against Rudy, Fred, & Mitt. Nine combinations altogether. Hillary's polling ahead in seven of them. The two she's not are in Alabama and Hillary trails by a whopping six points to Rudy, two to Fred.

Seconding Kuff's caveats, it's indeed early and the relative name ID for these polls no doubt skews them a bit. But given what we're supposed to believe is a widely shared disdain of all things Hillary, these polls already help rebut the Republican-led myth that Hillary will be the savior of the GOP. At the end of the day, it's my hope that Virginia is at least competitive on the federal level. But part of that may very well become a function of how much money the nominee ends up dropping in Virginia.

Kentucky may be influenced somewhat by the ongoing Governor's race, which is turning out to be the Democratic equivalent to a Harlem Globetrotters game in terms of the outcome being in doubt. Still ... this is Hillary Clinton they're polling on. Aren't all those nasty Vince Foster rumors and inherent distrust of her supposed to keep her below whatever Mendoza Line applies to Democrats in this state?

That brings us to Alabama. If any set of numbers for Alabama show up this close over the course of the next year, I expect to see Arthur Davis eating his shoe over his decision to not run for the Senate. I don't anticipate Alabama being that close, suffice it to say. Or, put another way, I'll suggest that Mississippi flips blue before Alabama. This analysis, of course, is due to review if those Nunn rumors ever take off. Could Alabama (and, what the hell ... even Mississippi) be put in play by Nunn jumping in? Or does Nunn pull too heavily from moderates that might otherwise vote Dem? Can't wait to see what polling on that question shows.

Adding to all of this, Clinton did stop in her old home state of Arkansas recently. I've got to believe that Bubba refuses to let this state fall off the priority list and that the Clinton name might be a bit of a welcome revival here. Winnable? Depends on too much to bet right now. But I don't think the state is going to be void of activity to make it contestable. Among the tidbits from Hill's visit was the release of a poll that showed her winning the state ... by double-digits. I've not had time to dig up any details, but my guess is that the results are from the same batch of Survey USA data. Now, even factoring in even greater name ID here, does it not suggest something worth considering that these people presumably know the difference between Hillary and Bill? I'll believe double-digits when I see it ... and the number of months till the election are not in double digits. But still - this is supposed to be the south, where Hillary-haters lay waiting for the prophesied day a Clinton will run so they can be reminded to vote - which they supposedly wouldn't otherwise do.

Sit tight ... 2008 looks like more and more fun with each passing day.