Numbers Don't Lie
» Chron: Texas attorney has money to wage a U.S. Senate bid (AP)
Count me among those who suggest that wealth isn't the be-all of campaigns ... but money does help. More appropriate to the Draftniks' interest, here's a comparison to note:
747 ... number of individual donations to Mikal Watts as of June 30th.
157 ... number of donors to 'Netroots for Rick Noriega for Senate' or 'Texas Netroots Against Cornyn' via Act Blue; as of August 7
170 ... number of donors to Rick Noriega via Act Blue; as of August 7
329 ... number of donors to the Texas Senate Nominee Fund via Act Blue; as of August 7
537 ... number of Act Blue donors to either Noriega or the Nominee Fund; as of August 7
I'm assuming for now that the Draftnik's won't take credit for John Kerry's email list, but even with that, the most generous demonstration of 'people-powered' support doesn't measure up to Watt's total. We've now had multiple posts on the big national blogs plugging Noriega, the man himself was escorted around YearlyKOS - the biggest conglomeration of leftwing bloggers known to mankind. And we're still 577 donors shy of matching a number that Watts is still adding to.
Hopefully, the offline fundraising for Noriega is going better. The affiliation with Texas bloggers doesn't seem to really be getting much more than page hits for the campaign website (campaign blog still forthcoming) and a nice trip to Chicago.
I think my next micro-bet for the campaigns is going to be this: be the first campaign to do a video that doesn't warrant nationwide ridicule. Of the two out so far, Rick's is the better of them ... but that's not saying much. The tone of Rick's message tends to be a bit preachy and draws from the worst of Van Os (hint: fewer references to founding fathers and what they did in 1776 and more on what you plan to do in the year 2009). Video as a means of communication is something that is only going to increase over the next few years. If the first few attempts stink, so be it. Better to show improvement if nothing else.
I think Noriega is great (although the vote rankings linked on Burka Blog's front page confirm that he's just a middle of the road Democrat and not the progressive candidate who the netroots promote him as).
But I see Noriega headed down the same path as Barbara Radnofsky, David Van Os, Chris Bell, Maria Luisa Alvarado, Fred Head, etc., etc. True, Cornyn is weaker than Hutchison was, but Cornyn isn't weaker than Jerry Patterson or Todd Staples or Elizabeth Ames Jones and those weaklings all won by well more than 10%. The weakest Republican on the whole 2006 statewide ticket was Don Willett who didn't get hardly a single endorsement and who barely bothered to campaign at all, and he won by 6% over a much better qualified Democratic candidate with the endorsement of nearly every newspaper in the state. Cornyn is much stronger than Willett, and Cornyn is running during a presidential election year which traditionally gives the Republican candidates a couple of extra points in a ticket-wide boost.
In truth, Noriega may get the nomination, but he'd be lucky to break 45% in the general election.
I've been saying for a while that the next fundraising report will be a very telling one for the Senate primary contenders. You'd think that with that in mind, I would've gone ahead and crunched the numbers on this already. Call me a slacker! I feel behind now. Great catch, Greg.
"Call me a slacker! I feel behind now"
I'd have to say it right back to the mirror while I'm at it.