More Primary Polling: ARG on the Big Three

Interesting new polling out of ARG for the early primary states here. Namely, the numbers are looking better for Obama in the first three (well ... minus Nevada). Iowa looks better for Hillary - and maybe is a sign that the recent swing through the state is paying dividends. It would be a move toward irrelevance to see Edwards win that state and then go on to fade everywhere else. Simply put, he's campaigning for VP once more. Still, he's in second place and by no means out of the hunt for Iowa.

I've often felt that New Hampshire is the make-or-break state for Obama. It's his best early state and tends to have a good run of supporting outsider candidates. ARG's results have Obama & Hillary tied there, with Obama leading in the followup state of South Carolina ... another good state for Obama. If there's momentum on his side coming out of NH, SC could be a tough one for Team Hillary. The wildcard to throw into the analysis is that Hillary has pretty good leads in Nevada (which comes before SC) and Florida falls on the same day as SC. That might not be enough to totally derail Obama's potential NH momentum, but it'll be something.

As it stands, I fully expect 3 or 4 double-digit (or close) candidates to head into Super Tuesday and for the race to conclude as soon as California is done voting.