An Irregular '08: Polling in OH, PA, MI

Interesting polling out of Quinnipiac (as blogged on RCP):

Primary stuff:
Ohio polling in ... Clinton with a big lead over Obama, Giuliani with a slight lead over FT. On the GOP side, the limited polling available shows some interesting effects from a now eventual McCain exit. I'd have thought that the move would make life tough for Giuliani, but it appears to not be that easy. Perhaps the broader question is how much change we see once the race consolidates to a two or three man race. For instance, I can see a Romney exit helping FT. But what if it consolidates down to Rudy/FT/Mitt?

It's still problematic to see Rudy winning the nomination, but the later and later we keep saying that, the more it's worth pondering why it is that he's still in the lead throughout the nation. The dynamic of individual contests ought to be enough to upset the apple cart some, but right now Mitt's looking pretty good in the first two real contests. That only helps his ability to hang on as the third wheel for as long as he wants to.

General Election stuff:
Maybe it's a sign of how repulsed Ohio has become of the GOP and nothing more. But do the Electoral College math and this ain't exactly insignificant ...

Clinton 44 - Giuliani 42
Clinton 40 - Giuliani 35 - Bloomberg 10
Clinton 47 - Thompson 38

Not bad for a "polarizing" candidate with "high negatives," huh?

RCP also blogs on some PA & MI numbers. Again, Clinton & Rudy head the herds in the primary numbers with a variety of mostly minor leads. Nothing really prohibitive about them, so look for a good deal of fluctuation based on how the storyline evolves post-Iowa.

For our own side, it'll be worth watching to see what happens once Obama starts dropping some of his cash on TV ads. In particular, will he go negative on Clinton? Will he just attempt to draw a strong anti-war contrast? Or will he try to boost his competitive advantage by playing to his strength and running positive ads? Hard to see two candidates with a relatively equal money footing and different strengths not end up going at each other by the time it's all said and done. Frankly, I'll be happier to see Obama NOT use the word "inspirational" in his attempt to be inspirational. How's the saying go? If a joke is funny, you shouldn't have to say it's funny. Same principle here.