Hawaii Updates

Yeah, this is pathetic, I'll admit. But here I am fishing around for Hawaii election results at this goshforsaken hour of the night/morning. Hawaii's updates are a bit complex (details here for the truly twisted types who love to research these things - my condolences to both of you).

Anyways, the first printout is out (1:30am - joy!) and the Senate race looks as follows:

Akaka - 47,446 (56%)
Case - 36,642 (43.2%)
[for whatever reason, Hawaii counts blank ballots as a separate category ... it trails with a stellar 0.7%]

Oddly enough, the results translate into a mixed reading of conventional wisdom, as reported in the Star-Bulletin link above:

Don Clegg, a longtime political pollster for former Mayor Frank Fasi, said the first printout is not a good indication of the election winner unless a large lead develops.

Anything over 10 percentage points will be "very difficult" to make up in a statewide race, he said.

The absentee ballots will also give some hint as to the extent of the crossover vote in the U.S. Senate and 2nd Congressional District contests.

In the 2004 and 2002 elections, about one in four absentee voters took out a Republican ballot. If the percentage is much lower, that would be an indication that voters who normally vote Republican, cast a Democratic Party ballot to vote in the U.S. Senate race.

Republican crossover votes are likely to be a key factor if U.S. Rep. Ed Case is to beat incumbent U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka.

Already, Akaka's lead is over 10% AND the percentage of GOP ballots appears well below the 25% mark. Which one gives? Hold on for the second printout in 30 minutes ... or just go to sleep and wake up to find out who won.

UPDATE 0.9: It's worth noting that the results are absentee ballots only. You'd expect the incumbent to do well in this case (better organization, more established support to lend a hand, etc). It'll be interesting to see what the first returns to to Akaka's lead. If it starts to dwindle, it could turn into a long night. Case's congressional district includes the more distant, smaller islands that might trickle in for him throughout. We'll see.

UPDATE 0.91: AP already running with a fill-in-the-blanks story from the early results. I'm still bored and waiting for the second update.

UPDATE 1.0: Second printout is out ...

Akaka - 87,102 (54.4%)
Case - 71,712 (44.8%)

That's with 228 of 353 precincts counted. Looking like too big a spread for Case to make up.

FINAL UPDATE: Sometimes a nap prevails. Case loses, but the effort is to be commended. He ran a class campaign by all accounts and is clearly at the forefront of the drive to break up the machine politics of Hawaii. Kudos for that and I hope there's a followup effort sooner rather than later.