National Polling Update (Final Pre-Labor Day?)

Interesting numbers from the Gov race here in TX ...

Perry - 34.8
Bell - 23.1
Kinky - 22.7
OTG - 9.6

Tag that toe, grandkids ... the Grandma looks awfully dead from here. About the only question remaining is how high Chris Bell climbs from here on out.

In the lesser states ...
NV-Gov ... Democrat eking out a lead by a few points (Pickup)
AR-Gov ... Democrat looking like a shoe-in (Pickup)
CO-Gov ... Democrat sailing smoothly (Pickup)
MN-Gov ... Dem by three (Pickup)
NY-Gov ... are you kidding me? (Pickup)
MD-Gov ... Dem sailing for now (Pickup)
MA-Gov ... Spitzer-esque lead evolving (Pickup)
OH-Gov ... Strickland by 8 (Pickup)

Of these, I have to put the MD & MN races as the toughest. MA looks incredibly good for now, but Bay State Dems have a way of shooting off both feet once the primary is settled. With a three-way primary that looks to be a virtual dead heat, that could very well happen all over again. In MN & MD, we're still tasked with offing an incumbent. Both incumbents in question are solid campaigners who will start to look better at some point in the campaign.

VA-Sen ... Webb now polling ahead (Ripe for the Plucking)
PA-Sen ... Nine-point lead for Casey (Likely Pickup)
OH-Sen ... Brown by nine (Likely Pickup)
RI-Sen ... no poll, but other polling is favorable, even with Chafee as the opponent. (Leans Dem)
MO-Sen ... McCaskill back by 4 points (Tossup)
TN-Sen ... Ford back by a surprisingly close 3 points (Elevated to Tossup)
NV-Sen ... Carter back by under 4 (Elevated to Tossup)
AZ-Sen ... Pederson, same (Elevated to Tossup)
MT-Sen ... not on this list, but other polling is very favorable (Likely Pickup)
Of course, the same poll has Joe up by 10 in Connecticut.

Getting the five needed is still, I think, going to take a bit of a perfect storm. But when you see so many challengers that have been behind by 10 or more points now breathing down the back of incumbents, that storm may very well be gaining strength. I still put Ford and Carter at the bottom of this list in terms of winning. And I think McCaskill's race will go down to the wire (which may well favor us anyway). I think 4 pickups are doable enough. Five is increasingly in sight, it's just a matter of picking which one you expect to be that fifth. More likely, though, I think it's just as likely that we could end up with all 8 races listed above just as much as we could pick up 5.