Daily Outtakes ...
A few selected outtakes to ponder for the day ...
- A Primary Lesson for Lieberman (EJ Dionne)
- Star Power vs. Staying Power (Kevin Rennie)
- 'Dear Katherine' Letter Failed to Dissuade Harris
And so, just as political logic pointed to the earlier downfalls of Javits, Case and Kuchel, so does political logic suggest a gloomy outlook for Lieberman.Elections, however, are about more than logic and historical trends. If Lieberman survives this primary, it will be thanks to voters who would gladly have cast a protest ballot against him but never really wanted him to lose. Such voters -- and, yes, I identify with them -- are frustrated with Lieberman's accommodationism but like and respect him and hope he might learn something from Lamont's challenge.
A Lieberman loss next week could also create distracting problems for Democrats. Lieberman has said he would run as an independent if he lost the primary. This would divert national attention from the Democrats' central goal of making this fall's elections a referendum on Bush and the Republican Congress.
As for this primary, the lesson already is clear: A Democratic Party that has been on defense since the 1980s desperately wants to go on offense. Lamont understands that. If Lieberman is to survive this round, he needs to make clear between now and next Tuesday that he's gotten the message.
"Where there is confusion and rancor among Democrats, it helps Republicans," says Simmons manager Christopher Healy, who ran John McCain's successful 2000 Connecticut primary campaign. Lieberman appearing on the ballot away from the Democrats plays some role in the mysterious realm of voter psychology, Healy thinks. Politicos in Connecticut are convinced that a chunk of voters are liberated to split the rest of their ticket if they do it early in their trot down the ballot. The state, however, features a rich tradition of ticket splitting for many offices.
The Connecticut Republican Party has gradually awoken to what the prospects of a divided Democratic Party mean for their own resurgence. Similarly, a Lieberman loss would easily hand the national GOP their first broadside attack on the Democratic Party as a whole ... and not just for 2006. If only the Nedheads of the world got that.
Nearly three months ago, the Florida Republican Party told Senate candidate Katherine Harris she wouldn't win the election and the party wouldn't support her."Katherine, though it causes us much anguish, we have determined that your campaign faces irreparable damage," said a May 7 letter to Harris obtained by the Associated Press. "We feel that we have no other choice but to revoke our support."
The confidential letter, signed by the party chairman, Carole Jean Jordan, and national committee members Sharon Day and Paul Senft, was sent a day before Harris, who is in the U.S. House, filed to run.
Republicans had tried to get a stronger candidate to replace Harris, but no candidate would agree to run and Harris refused to get out of the race. She currently trails Sen. Bill Nelson, the Democratic incumbent, by double digits in the polls. She faces several challengers in a GOP primary but is leading them by large margins.
Meanwhile, at least one state Republican party is finding new and creative ways to shoot themselves in the foot. I'm suddenly curious if Gary Mauro has at least offered a courtesy call for how to manage a similar situation.
I have never liked Lieberman, and not just because of issues: he exudes negative energy. Negative, insincere energy. Kind of like an older Joel Osteen.
He will lose the primary and quite possibly win the fall election. The trend toward "Independent" is becoming a national political story. Who will dare cover it first?
It's really becoming an open question whether there are any Democrats you like, Dale ;-)
If Lieberman survives this primary, it will be thanks to voters who would gladly have cast a protest ballot against him but never really wanted him to lose.
I imagine some of these voters will cast a protest ballot in the primary, with the knowledge that he'll be around to vote for in November.
Interesting that some of the support Lieberman is busing in is Young Republicans and that a number of GOP politicians are working with him. If a another Democrat defeating him is good for the Republicans I am surprised the word hasn't gotten around more.
Try reading Kevin Rennie's columns more. Believe me, word is out. Unlike the 'opinions' of some, there's actually something to substantiate that one.
The situation with Harris in Florida puts the Tom DeLay-ballot issue in an interesting light. I think the courts are ruling correctly on the DeLay matter, to the best of my knowledge, but it is because they are focusing on the fact that the party can not just decide for the most spurious of reasons that a candidate is not eligible.
But I keep asking myself, should it not be possible for candidates to withdraw, simply withdraw if they no longer want to be a candidate? That seems like common sense, but when we look at Florida we can see that making it possible for a candidate to "voluntarily" withdraw might often mean that party "faithful" would use that fact to try to pressure "weak" candidates to resign so that a party favorite can be installed. It should never be possible to apply such pressure.
I can think of a compromise to these scenarios -- a compromise with a twist that would guarantee that the parties could never perform this kind of abuse. What is the twist? A candidate should always be allowed the right to withdraw from the ballot, but if that candidate is a party nominee, the party should not be allowed to replace the candidate in that election cycle. That way the law could be fair to candidates with personal reasons to withdraw, but also fair to the voters who put that candidate there in the first place.