After pondering the thought that should the HD146 race go to a runoff I'd have no idea where any energy would come from, I'm now in high gear. Maybe it's all the caffeinne I had on Election Day still working through my system. Maybe it's the crystal clear vision that there's a victory at hand here. Time'll tell.
For now, though, here's a few short takes on recent events all lumped into one aggreblogpost:
Clinton-era Trade Rep, Charlene Barshefsky, has a good read on some upcoming trade agreements that deserve to be passed. While it may be the mood d'jour of some on the left to turn a thumbs down to free trade, it would be precisely the wrong time to roll up our border to Asian nations. The trading partners in question represent a bigger deal than the CAFTA agreement. Now, if only the Bush admin and GOP leaders find a way to NOT make the end result of passing an agreement worse (I know, that's expecting a lot). CAFTA deserved to pass on it's own merits. But the side deals the Bush admin. took to get it to pass meant that there would be LESS free trade after CAFTA takes effect. Truly an ironic "victory."
Another hit to the far left: Henry Cuellar wins re-election without so much as a runoff. Cuellar's not entirely lovable, even in my stretch of the ideological spectrum. But some folks out there need to get over the notion that the 28th is some deep, dark navy blue district that warrants having the most liberal member of Congress in it (as Ciro was). Had Richard Raymond been the opponent in this race, there might have been a shot at upending Cuellar. So stop giving the voters a false choice, mkay?
I never had enough time to extend a blog congrats to Team Bell. Truly an impressive win. There's not a lot of money to go around in the Dem primaries and with many of the other races still undecided, winning a race like this by something better than 2-to-1 sends the strongest message of reform possible.
One bit of mockery deserves to be aimed directly at BurntOrangeReport's Karl Musselman. I'm curious if he'll now finally release those infamous "numbers he's seen" in the Bell/Gammage race that portend a Gammage victory. For someone who once referred to himself as a "Reform Democrat" only to endorse Martin Frost for DNC and, for Guv, the guy who helped turn the Texas bench over to George Bush ... it's rather hard to figure out what Karl stands for these days other than ... well ... Karl.
Tom DeLay ... 62%. Really, I don't even need to add anything to that. Best of luck to Team Lampson on the real race in this district.
Uresti & Madla ... I'm curious how this portends as a message that more and more Dems are seeking newer voices as we push back towards a majority status in the state. The old guard was merely adaptive and now seeks to just "fit in" and get a meager slice of the pie when the Republican leaders tell them what they can have. That's obviously not selling well these days. Clearly, I think there's a tie-in to the race in HD146 on this note. For now, just a thought.
Did someone (still?) say "liberal media?" EJ Dionne's take on the media's "balancing act" is priceless. What is it exactly that truth is to be balanced against?
Rick Santorum on wise career moves ... not! Seeing Bob Casey sworn in as Senator is going to be the biggest out-of-state victory here in Gregville. In my weaker moments, I almost wish the incumbent would at least TRY to make a race out of it.
The Chron has a new political blog up. To the surprise of absolutely NOBODY, it started up right on Primary Day. Just when I think this paper can do nothing more to surprise me. Oh, I look forward to their endorsement of Borris a few hours before Runoff E-day. Or will they post it online-only at 6:59 that day? Place your bets.
The Dropkick Murphys hit Houston today. I'm hoping to catch it. energy level for the day is still an open question, though. And I hate to go see some kids moshing to a guy in a kilt playing the bagpipes when I'm feeling just a bit groggy. Still, the guys flat-out rock and if you've got a free evening, check them out. Apologies in advance to everyone at Borris HQ if they don't appreciate me blaring some punk rock for today.
For the record, Greg, if it matters, I'm pretty sure I'm more corrupt than Karl-Thomas. I'm the one about to be a lawyer, remember. And I caught myself saying "kill all the penguins, drill for oil in Antarctica" today. I'm not kidding.
Hopefully it won't get so bad that I'll be Dick Cheney's hunting buddy or anything. I'd prefer to live.
And I'm pretty sure I'm still a grade-A liberal, or at least a grade-C+.
Speaking of C+ Liberals, Kevin Drum says the New Republic is being taken over by liberals.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_03/008389.php
All your base are belong to us, Old Man Wythe! Ahahaha...
But... in all serious, and the point I was going to get at is... yeah, Karl's a good guy. Megadittos for PDiddie in the above thread.
Fear not, Jim. Atrios is still miffed at TNR over one errant quote that clearly proves their pro-war, neocon leanings:
http://atrios.blogspot.com/2006_03_05_atrios_archive.html#114195423160332383
As for Karl ... to each their own. My dealings with him have warranted the statement I've made and I stand by it 100%.
I know this has probably been talked about too much already, but I want to make a couple of points about the Ciro-Cuellar race.
*But some folks out there need to get over the notion that the 28th is some deep, dark navy blue district that warrants having the most liberal member of Congress in it (as Ciro was).*
I'll buy that. You're right. The composition of the district doesn't necessarily warrant it having such a liberal member, although I don't think it precludes it from having one. The same thing could be said about a rep. like Cuellar, too. The people of the pre-redistricting 28th district seemed to like Ciro and his liberal voting record well enough to keep reelecting him for 3 terms. I don't think the people of East Laredo are that much more conservative than the people of South San Antonio. This race turned on geography, not ideology.
*Had Richard Raymond been the opponent in this race, there might have been a shot at upending Cuellar. *
I doubt it. Had Raymond been in the race, along with Ciro, he might have forced a runoff between Ciro and Cuellar. You'd end up with the same result.
Had it just been a Raymond versus Cuellar contest, I think Cuellar's winning margin would have been even greater. Unlike Ciro, Raymond has no base in San Antonio. As the incumbent (and visible from his role as Secretary of State), and as someone with a Hispanic surname AND name recognition, Cuellar would have swallowed up that vote in a nanosecond. He even made inroads this year in San Antonio this year, cutting into Ciro's margins there.
Cuellar would have clobbered Raymond in Laredo too. Raymond has a much less cohesive base in Laredo. Although he has roots in Laredo, he was a state representative for Duval and La Salle Counties for several years, and only moved back to Laredo to when when it became clear Cuellar was moving on. Note that after backing out of the Congressional race this year, Raymond didn't even make it out of the primary for reelection to his state house seat without a runoff. He'll face powerful former Webb County Judge Mercurio Martinez in a few weeks.
Cuellar is the hometown boy favorite son. He appears unshakeable and Laredoans will always turn out for him en masse just like they will always turn out for for favorite daughter (and Cuellar foe) Sen. Judith Zaffirini. If anyone could have given him a race, it would have been her. Maybe.
*So stop giving the voters a false choice, mkay?*
But who knows whether Zaffirini could have given him a run for it or not? Maybe all the possible choices in this race were false choices, including Cuellar himself. So why even have an election, right? That's the pessimistic view. The false choice was set up by Republican mapmakers with their knowledge of Laredo/San Antonio turnout rates, not by Democrats running a liberal against Cuellar.
The optimistic view is I think the more realistic one. Facts: Lady Z saw a tough race, and decided not to take the gamble. Raymond gambled, but couldn't keep his campaign from floundering. Ciro gambled and then floundered and then had a last minute bit of help from a photograph and then came up short. All these things are pretty much par for the course in political campaigns. But 47 percent of us in the district at least were able to vote for a candidate we felt would do a better job representing us than the incumbent. That's sounds like a pretty strong choice to this liberal Laredoan.
-Jane
Jane -
Several good points above, so thanks for adding to the discussion. It amazes me that the contest in the 28th has turned so much on geography and also the extent to which Cuellar has as much favorability in Laredo as he does. It's that Laredo connection that gives me reason to believe that Richard Raymond might have a shot in a head-to-head race with Cuellar, but I take your point that it's not exactly a given that San An voters will cast their votes against Cuellar to the same extent they do with Ciro on the ballot. It's entirely possible that I give Raymond too much credit for his statewide run in 2002 and the fact that he's in a dogfight for his State House seat is certainly a point in favor of that argument.
Zaffirini would certainly make things interesting, no doubt. But I'm curious how different she would be viewed from Cuellar if it were here there instead of Cuellar. Maybe it's just a matter of degrees. Maybe it's that I haven't followed her career path as much as I did in the 90s. Maybe that's just due to the nature of the State Senate remaining one of the last bipartisan entities in the state (for good and bad - and at least until Dan Patrick gets there).
Still, I'm curious how much of Cuellar's lack of love within his own caucus is derived from his personality versus his record in office. That the Blue Dogs have effectively shunned him is rather telling. I've not read up on the details behind that, though. I recall that there was some concern that Cuellar would switch parties, but that hasn't happened yet - and I'm doubtful that he ever will.
So is the 28th Cuellar's seat for life? ... even if he manages a meager 51% or so every primary? I guess time will tell. But if the seat is, at least as it's drawn now, a marginally Laredo-driven seat, that at least partially supports the idea that a more moderate ideology with an independent voting pattern will eminate from whomever is in office from this seat - barring the occassional abberration, of course. Geography may trump ideology as the determining factor, but given the nature of Laredo's geography, I'm not entirely sure that ideology doesn't at least derive from that somewhat.
Just as even a majority of Texas Dems (at least pre-DeLay gerrymandering) support favorable legislation to the oil & gas industry and a host of other voting anomalies, a Laredo seat strikes me as more amenable to free trade and dependent on the votes of more more moderate (and upscale) voters.
One point I should add to the above that underscores much of why I suggest that Ciro is a false choice for the bulk of voters in the 28th. If, for instance, Ciro were the one clinging on by 51% in each primary, it's my fear that this would offer an opening to the Republican Party to field a credible candidate in this seat and pick up the votes of disaffected moderates in the district - and very possibly win it outright.
Though you may personally bemoan many of Henry's votes and the active role he takes on several issues that run counter to the majority of Dem thought ... is there any sense that Henry is at least an improvement over what would come of another Henry Bonilla (or, more appropriately, a party-switching Cuellar who goes along with the GOP on significantly more votes)?
Greg - I'd like to clarify that I supported Martin Frost for DNC Chair, not Karl-Thomas. Karl-Thomas supported Howard Dean. I did endorse Martin Frost for DNC Chair, however, Karl-Thomas did not. That's something that you might want to clarify in your post.