Primary Polling

Finally ... some polling done for the Dem primary on March 7 (story here). Not surprisingly, a lot of undecideds still out there.

The big news, of course, is that this poll has Strayhorn fading and Chris Bell in second place (Gammage tied with Strayhorn):

If the November general election for governor were being held today and Chris Bell were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Chris Bell: 19%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 16%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

If the election were today, and Bob Gammage were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Bob Gammage: 17%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 17%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

First things first, though ... back to the primary contest:

If the Democratic Primary for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Chris Bell: 28%
Bob Gammage: 12%
Not sure: 60%

Given the low budget for campaigning in the primary, this isn't entirely shocking. Most voters will head to the polls knowing nothing about either candidate on the ballot. But the 2-to-1 spread is a good barometer for Team Bell.

There's still some conflicting signals out there about the outcome, though. Another poll has Gammage doing better in the general than Chris. No primary numbers in that poll, but obviously Team Gammage is using it to paint their guy as the strongest candidate. The downside of this DMN poll is the lack of a trendline. The downside of the other poll is that it shows a huge jump in Gammage's numbers with no explainable reason. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that the biggest deciding factor of the entire campaign isn't Gammage's appearance around the state with Wes Clark. Sorry, not buying it. There's most likely a sampling anomaly with that poll (which isn't to refute it's outcome "in toto", just to question any large movement on the part of unknown candidates).

Also, some interesting polling on Kinky voters:

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Chris Bell and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 34%
Chris Bell: 25%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 12%

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Bob Gammage and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 36%
Bob Gammage: 20%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 14%

This really opens up the floodgates of analysis and swats away a few preconceived notions of my own. I'm surprised that the Dem candidate isn't at the top of this outcome. What it means is that Chris Bell won't have to fear Kinky being on the ballot whatsoever. Previously, I'd been of a mind that thought it'd be best for us were Kinky to not make the ballot. Now, I'm not nearly as worried. Still, the absence of Harris County primary voters thanks to Kinky's efforts to have folks not vote is of some concern for the primary. There's two pockets within the county (The Heights & Meyerland) that I see voters likely to hold out from the primary, and one of them is right in the heart of Chris' old CD25 (Meyerland).

Coupla final thoughts on the poll ... nice sample size (1,482) and a low MOE (3%). On the flip side of that, I'm not overly familiar with the firm: Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York. I suspect part of the reason for the large sample was to get a decent number of Dem primary voters, and the sample for that pool is 301 (with a MOE of 5.5) ... not entirely huge. It'd be more telling if there were any crosstabs in the poll. Of most interest here is the breakdown of primary voters. I think to the extent that urban counties hold to their historical pattern, it ought to work well for Chris. Otherwise, there's a lot of smaller counties voting that may have voters hit the poll with something unseen by the Gammage supporters I see in Harris County: a lasting memory of Bob Gammage from his days as an elected official.

That said ... I'm going with the "Reform Democrat" in the race. Jason's analysis of the numbers can be read here.

Early voting starts Tuesday. Best of luck to Team Bell.