A "Run.Everywhere" Update

Thus far, 2006 is shaping up as a season with a little hope, but a lot of hurdles still yet to be approached. The biggest negatives, of course, are that candidates for statewide office are few and far between. Adding to that, three of the four seats that are thus far challenged, will have a primary contest (Governor, Senator, & Agriculture Commissioner). For a party that already has been frozen out of the money race, challenges at that level can be a dangerous proposition. I'll get to the statewide slate at a later date, but for now, I want to stick a bit closer to home: Harris County.

At the most atomistic level, I've frequently noted that candidates for State Representative are the most likely to reach voters in their own backyards ... the most likely to shake the hand of a likely voter ... the best, most effective ambassador for your party that there typically is. In a state with no statewide elected Democrats, in a county with no countywide elected Democrats, organization at the local level is a thankless proposition. I once noted that, during a dinner with a precinct chair, I asked one of those questions that I knew the answer to before I asked it: Who's the highest-ranking Democratic representative for your precinct? She represented a precinct with a Republican Congressman, a Republican State Rep, a Republican State Senator, a Republican County Commissioner, and so on. The answer to that question: "Me."

Given the state of power in Harris County, Texas, there are more than a few folks in the same boat. For that reason, I've long since advocated that we field a full slate of State Rep. candidates ... not just countywide, but statewide as well. Such a feat would send a serious signal to Democrats in every isolated corner, nook, and cranny of the state. It says we're serious about challenging the party of corruption. It says we're not going to sit idle while the current party in power leads us over a cliff on issues such as education and health care. It says we're serious about rebuilding our party ... and doing so the right way, at that.

Granted, there are some who see no point in running if you know you're going to lose. I'd love for them to meet Dot Nelson-Turnier, who takes the "Run Everywhere" concept to a new level. Let's call it "Roll Everywhere." See, Dot is confined to a wheelchair. Yet that doesn't prevent the power of ideas from taking hold and keeping her from exercising the belief that no Republican deserves to go unchallenged. I'd also like to make sure they know about a man named Hubert Vo. A lot of us do know Hubert, because he was lucky enough to win his race in 2004. But that victory came in spite of Republican elected officials throwing fundraisers for his opponent. It came despite some of his fellow State Representatives coming from a variety of places throughout Texas to help his opponent in southwest Harris County. Hubert eked out a close win and were it not for the determined efforts of a lot of good folks who believe in Hubert, he might well have had the election stolen from him by the Republican Party of Texas. Furthermore, were it not for a little-known candidate in 2002 who earned 45% of the vote against Hubert's opponent, folks might still be claiming to this day that Hubert's district was irreversably Republican ... that we shouldn't bother fielding a candidate there. They'll only lose.

Unfortunately, it's not an invisible army of naysayers who try and trash this batty idea of challenging Republicans. It's high-priced political consultants right here in Harris County. It's former candidates for statewide office right here in Texas. Our biggest enemies, it often seems, isn't the other party ... it's those within our ranks who have simply given up and are content to take what the Republican Party of Texas gives them. I could go on and on about how wrong they are, but I'd like to offer another option: It's time to prove them wrong.

In Harris County, circa 2004, our State Rep. candidates were a bit too scarce, despite a few noble challenges like that of Charlotte Coffelt up in Kingwood & Atascosita. I've blockwalked parts of that district many many moons ago and can attest to the difficulty of that part of the county for Democrats. But overall, as measured by actual votes, roughly 40% of Harris County went to the polls without an alternative for State Rep. offered by the Democratic Party. Nearly half the county did not have someone going door-to-door, organizing Democratic voters, keeping a few voters here and there from the temptation to give up on a party that sometimes acts as if it has given up on them in their neighborhood. If that's the recipe for success that some are willing to stick to, I'd absolutely hate to see the recipe for disaster those naysayers have for us.

With a few weeks left in the candidate filing period, we're already doing a bit better in Harris County. Where we had previously left 40% of voters with no choice, we've already whittled that down to less than 35% of voters facing no alternative. Here's a visual of the status we're at right now, with a breakdown of the closest race from 2004 demonstrating the viability of each:

(Red indicates no challenger)

There's still work to do, obviously. The biggest opportunities for potential candidates, right now: District 138 (Dwayne Bohac) and District 130 (Corbin Van Arsdale).

Now wait. I can already hear the questions hurled my way. Maybe you can understand a challenge to Bohac. Kathy Stone won 43% of the vote there and if someone got in with a lot of time, money, and energy, an upset might be possible. But District 130? That's the single most GOP-friendly territory on the list. What gives?

What gives is that it's also the fastest growing territory on the list. The district had nearly 95,000 registered voters in 2004 and new home construction continues unabated, with little end in sight. By the time 2011 comes, along with redistricting, it will almost certainly be split in two, creating a new Republican district in northwest Harris County. Why not spend a few election cycles organizing, registering, and advocating ... and then see whether or not there's terrain in any new seat to run an even stronger race in 2012?

Running everywhere isn't a short-term strategy for success. It's strength is in the long term. That's not to say it cannot help in the short term. When lightning strikes, it's surely better to have a candidate in place than to not have one. Just ask Jeri Slone, who ran nearly 20 points better than John Kerry out in West Texas after the incumbent was arrested for drunk driving. Slone still lost, but it sent a strong message that the incumbent could not take for granted ... and also helps other candidates in the area see where potential Democratic voters might be. With no candidate, there's nothing to build on. It can help out as soon as the next election, as we saw in Harris County with Andrew Tran leading to Hubert Vo's election two years later. As I've often resorted to saying as a way of advocating the "Run.Everywhere" notion: "I'm not looking for the next Ellen Cohen, I'm looking for the next Andrew Tran."

The Ellen Cohens, the Hubert Vos, the Kristi Thibauts ... they'll all show up eventually. As soon as a race is proven winnable: potential or definite, good challengers rise to the occassion. But it's not uncommon that someone will occassionally have to do some scouting work. Andrew Tran was outspent hideously in 2002, yet won 45% of the vote. That sent a message to Hubert Vo. Ellen Cohen has the benefit of seeing Jim Dougherty win 45% of the vote in District 134 despite being outspent by a similar margin. Just imagine what will happen if a candiadte gets in that race with a more professional organization, with more money. We'll see what happens soon enough. District 133 is a district that had voted over 80% Republican back in 1980 (ref: Houtopia), 65% as late as 2002. That must have been enough to frighten off a challenger in 2004, despite the best efforts of the local party. But when an independent candidate wins 22% of the vote (on a budget measured in the low-three figures) and incumbent Joe Nixon suffers the lowest voter dropoff among any Republican State Rep, there's a signal that gets sent that this is a new day for that district. Sure enough. Kathy Stone's 46% in that district offers a clue that this district is now up for grabs. That's where Kristi Thibaut comes in. Now it's up to her to finish the job.

Dot, along with a variety of other uphill challengers, may not be fortunate enough to wake up after election day 2006 knowing they'd won an election for themselves. But they have it within themselves to be at the forefront of rebuilding a party at the local level. Seven seats remain unchallenged in Harris County. 35% of Harris County voters may go through yet another campaign wondering why the Democratic Party has given up on them. Nearly a quarter of Democratic voters may wonder why the party they support isn't doing anything in their neighborhoods.

I can't think of a legitimate excuse for that. Run everywhere. It's the only way we'll rebuild the party. There's about two weeks left to file. Don't know the first thing about running? Drop me a line. If anyone tells you it's pointless to challenge a Republican, pity them. They're the ones who have given up. I'll take the fighters.

UPDATE: Eye on Williamson County has a good addition to the convo, with a coupla links I'd neglected to include in my writeup. More on the redistricting what-if later, though.

UPDATE 2.0: Ah, I neglected a local candidate: Sherrie Matula is running in HD129 ... which puts us even further along. If we have a candidate in Baytown (calling John Webb!), we have the entire east side accounted for. It'd be nice to see some more folks come forth on the west side, but progress is progress.