Prediction Time: City Hall 2005
I guess with most of the top-tier races either effectively uncontested or effectively decided, we'll miss out on George Strong's usually spot-on predictions for City races. Lacking that, here's my call:
Mayor: They say the sky's the limit, so the only question for Hizzoner is how high the sky is this go-round. There's other names on the ballot, much like 1999. But unlike 1999, there's not a huge, pent-up disdain for the mayor. Normally, I'd say there's a built-in 15% that will vote against anyone no matter how popular. That's not far off the mark from Mayor Bob Lanier's high point. But I somehow think Bill White may yet top that. Yeah, I think 90% is possible for White. It's a bit optimistic, to say the least. But I'll call it an even 90% for White.
At Large #1: This one's been handed to Peter Brown on a silver platter. Funny how the Harris County GOP chickened out of this race. But still, it's an open race and "name ID" is a tricky beast for City elections. I think Peter can get somewhere inbetween 55-60%, which seems to be the going rate for the more partisan incumbents running for reelection. That Peter gets that in an open seat is impressive, though.
At Large #2: Definitely the tough one to pick of the bunch here. Bottom line, there's three and a half candidates here: Aiyer, Acosta, Lovell, and Elford as the half. Why a half? Because two years ago, the Harris County GOP was more than content to line up behind Elford as the lone opponent to the more liberal Gordon Quan. This time, however, they're busy trying to trash him in order to get a better Republican with less personal baggage propped up: Poli Acosta. For the most part, I think they'll succeed. But I don't think it'll be universally successful. The tough part of predicting this race is picking the finishing order. I don't foresee a lot of distance between #1 and #3 in this race, so it's quite possible that who I pick to finish first may well be free for Thanksgiving. That said, Aiyer and Acosta are the two with money to spend late in the game, so I'll go with the following finish:
Aiyer: 30%
Acosta: 27%
Lovell: 25%
Elford; 15%
Neal: 3%
District B: Not my hood, so I don't have the foggiest clue.
District C: Again ... tough call here. Four or five potential names that could finish in the runoff. One note worth making is that, as measured by yard sign placement around Rice, Anne Clutterbuck has done an impressive job of solidifying her backyard. Drive around the Rice U. area, and you'd think it's over. But Hittner has the money to spend and is undoubtedly kicking himself that he didn't run citywide. If the traditional indicators matter for anything, I'd say the runoff is between Hittner and Clutterbuck. But there's ample Dem votes to go around in the district. So, depending on how Litt & Lee split them up, either could find themselves in the hunt for December (I'd have to predict Litt with the advantage here). But all of that analysis may as well go in a blender because there's plenty of active campaigning going on in the district. The race is too dicey to pick actual numbers, of course. It's very likely that the leader of the pack has less than 30% of the vote. As for the runoff, however ... I think it's Hittner's to lose. Unless he just throws money out the window, it's tough to see anyone overcoming the name ID and financial handicap.
District H F: Not all that hotly contested, although I've got some Q&A I'm waiting on from the KA Khan camp. Still, I see MJ winning again with about 75%.
District I: Fear not, Carol Ann wins. I'm guessing she does so with 60% of the vote, which ought to represent a bit of damage done from Parras' attack on her.
I think you mean District F here. I'm predicting Adrian Garcia with 70%+ in District H.
Stupid keyboard. Thanks for the edit, fixed now.
Pretty good calls. Watch Peter Brown's winning percentage: his declared goal is to top 60%. Peter wants to be a player on the Council from the word go, "not just another Council member", and he believes he needs 60% to get there.
Acosta may lead Aiyer into the AL2 runoff, but I think Aiyer can rally the west side and District C (which will have a runoff) and beat Acosta the second time around.
In District C, my home district, I think it is a tossup between Hittner, Clutterbuck, and Litt. Lee's Chronicle endorsement gets him a solid 4th place, otherwise it might be worse. If Lee had run for this seat the last time around, instead of a pointless run for Controller, he would have been the frontrunner this year. The most likely scenario -- but still under 30% probability -- is Hittner and Litt in the runoff, because Hittner and Clutterbuck will split the loyal GOP vote. But you never know! How the hell did Mark Goldberg end up winning? Anything's possible in this district. If a Dem could win this seat, that would give us a solid 9-6 majority.
If White goes over 80%, you bet folks will be talking about him for governor.
In District C is Brian Cweren no factor at all? Do his signs mean nothing?
Good question about Cweren; I did indeed forget him, though a nagging doubt told me I had left someone out. Still, I see Brian doing no better than #4, perhaps ahead of Mark Lee, perhaps not. The better he does, the worse Clutterbuck and Hittner do.
By themselves the signs mean nothing. I am getting mail from Hittner, Litt, Clutterbuck, and now Cweren; calls from Hittner and Clutterbuck. Litt has been mailing the longest, Hittner the most. Nothing from Lee. Hittner-Litt still seems most likely, though by no means certain. I feel uncomfortable about Hittner; his photos remind me too much of Peewee Herman.
Dale,
I'd agree with you on AL2. But I think the biggest question there is how effectively the Harris County GOP props up Acosta and distances themselves from Elford. And, of course, don't forget that Aiyer also has some appeal among a segment of GOP voters. So it's really just a guessing game as to which of those comes into play the most. Which element wins out on Tuesday? No clue. There's not many outcomes that I can think of among the top three in that race that would totally surprise me.
Burt,
I like Brian. But if there's a weaker peg to rest your campaign on, I'd have a hard time naming anything weaker than yard signs. To the extent that I noted Clutterbuck's signage in Rice U, I think it serves as an exception due to not being the type of signage that you put in an empty lot or a vacant home. They were in high-dollar homes that you and I both know wouldn't have a sign up if it weren't for a voter there actually supporting the candidate (as opposed to, say, the Ann Witt Strategy of campaign signs).
Even to the extent that Brian has campaigned very actively (and to his credit, he has ... to both Dem & GOP groups), there's still the matter that Dale sorta hints at, that there's already a too-crowded field of good candidates in this race. That sort of crowding effect makes the candidates even more nervous than they'd otherwise be. There's room for a surprise in C, but there's also a reason they're called surprises instead of "smart bets."
I think Cweren might be able to surprise and finish higher than 4th. I'm not of voting age, so I don't have the ability to make predictions.
However, I am part of the Jewish community and from what I hear much of that community is leaning towards Cweren or Litt. I could be completely wrong, though.
Michael-Not being of voting age does not prevent you from making predictions it just prevents you from taking action that can cause the prediction to come true or not come true.
Do you not believe the Jewish Community is leaning toward George Hittner at all? If not that is an interesting observation.