Polling for 2006

WSJ Poll ... September 29, 2005
(MOE 2.9%)

Governor's Race:
Perry - 40.1% (45.2%)
Bell - 27.2% (25.9%)
Friedman - 18%

Strayhorn - 34.6%
Bell - 26%

Senate Race:
Why they polled for Sharp, Kirk & Watson and not the only announced candidate, I'll never know
Hutchison - 50.4%
Kirk - 37.3%

Hutchison - 51%
Sharp - 36.4%
particularly baffling since Sharp has never had an urge to be a US Senator

Hutchison - 51.6%
Watson - 35.7%

Analysis: All in all, about where I'd expect us to start out at this point. With a fraction of the name ID of the incumbents, 10-15 points isn't insurmountable as long as name ID takes care of itself (not an automatic, but a good possibility). What's telling is the disparity between KBH's and Perry's number. I'd expect Barbara Radnofsky's number would be pretty close to Bell's since they both have roughly the same hurdle, which is name ID. The Kinky factor also plays a role in that, and my first reaction to Kinky's numbers are that there actually is a good chunk of Perry vote moving that way. How much of it comes from our own hides, no idea yet. Wait and see.

Nationally, among the Senate seats, Hackett and Casey lead their Republican incumbents by a nice margin, and Missouri is a statistical tie. I notice they haven't bothered to poll Nebraska, which might be interesting when it's all said and done. Thus far, however, Senator Nelson doesn't seem to have much by the way of opposition. The only close ones among our incumbents polled are the other Senator Nelson in Florida and (a bit surprisingly), Herb Kohl in Wisconsin. I'd expect Kohl to be fine by the time it's all said and done, though. Florida will be a dogfight no matter what.

Among the other Gubernatorial races, California looks like a good bet for picking up. The Democratic Party in CA has about as much excitement at the top of their ticket as .... well ... Gray Davis minus the corruption. Yet Angelides is still leading the Governator. Even more of a lock seems to be New York, with Eliot Spitzer holding a 33 point lead. Massachusetts looks good for now, but I remain skeptical based on historical trends there. Once Romney announces he's not in the running, look for it to tighten.

Lots of other tight races among the Guber set ... Maryland (O'Malley), Ohio (Strickland/Coleman), Ohio and Minnesota all look like winnable gains for us. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Arizona look to be dogfights that we'll have to defend.

Stepping back to look at any bigger picture, those results seem to tell me that the blue states are definitely getting bluer (particularly New York). Makes sense given the current news cycle. Also, Wisconsin seems to be continuing it's trend as a swing state. That may be tougher for Gov. Doyle than the independently wealthy and still popular Senator Kohl.

Either way ... still lots of gametime ahead of us all.