Short Takes: Thibaut, Miles, Bell, Kristof, & Jakes
Whether it's redistricting, school finance, childrens health care, or really anything other than raising their pensions, Texas politicians don't seem to remember that we make progress on the common ground, not in the partisan trenches.People get that; Rick Perry doesn't. And to build a coalition capable of beating Rick Perry in November, we don't need a fundamental realignment of Texas politics. What we simply need is a Democratic nominee who recognizes, as the equally transcendant Greg Wythe notes, that it doesn't matter whether you are looking "50 yard line from the right or left."
I have now officially "double-dog-dared" Jason to work in a William Proxmire reference at some point in the future.
... the failures of others do not excuse Mr. Bush's own unwillingness to speak out, to impose a no-fly zone, to appoint a presidential envoy or to build an international coalition to pressure Sudan. So, Mr. Bush, let me ask you just one question: Since you portray yourself as a bold leader, since you pride yourself on your willingness to use blunt terms like "evil" - then why is it that you're so wimpish on genocide?
... while Pastor T.D. Jakes serves it up in person to Bush:
"It is not so important what we say, it is important what we do. Defining moments of history cannot be defined by rhetoric and words or anger, or soliciting people to respond in a tempestuous way. But real leadership is defined by what we do. The good Samaritan teaches us that it will cost money to help people, and sometimes we have to love them enough to pay the bill."
Strange things sure do seem to happen in the body politic when you dawdle as people die needlessly.
William Proxmire was great as the Secretary of Defense in "24" last season.
*sigh*
So far to go with this one.
Do you have to evacuate for Rita?
Not yet ... Houston's relatively "ok safe" from hurricanes. We're 50 miles inland & usually have more to worry about I-10 becoming a lake (which it has) than anything more damaging.
Ironically, I just spoke to one of the people referenced in this post and they're booking it for the weekend ... just in case.
I see.
All of Meyerland, Sharpstown, Bellaire, and West U are in Mayor White's "voluntary evacuation" area due to being in a 100 year flood plain. Storm surges could easily back up Brays Bayou. For details see www.houstontx.gov/category5.jpg .
I just thought I would send out a short assessment of Senate races. See below. If you wish to judge my biases, I am personally a pro-Defense, Harry Truman-style Democrat. As far as I am concerned, the golden era of the Democratic Party stretched from FDR through Harry Truman, JFK, LBJ and HHH, although miring us in a losing war effort in Vietnam will always remain a blotch on Johnson's escutcheon. I personally believe that the elements of the current Democratic Party worthy of those old traditions are the fighting pro-Defense Liberal Democrats at the Truman National Security Project, the New Democrats, the Democratic Leadership Council and the Blue Dog Democrats. I don't much like Howard Dean and the left wing of the Democratic Party. My last Democratic hero was Scoop Jackson. However, I am fed up with the Bush Administration, thought that the Iraq War as opposed to the GWOT and war in Afghanistan was a horrible strategic blunder, and believe that in many respects Bush-Cheney is a throwback to the rampant corruption of the Gilded Age. Now that we are in Iraq, I do believe we should attempt to finish the job or at least execuate an "end game" that secures our national interests to the extent possible.
**********************************************
How do Democrats win Senate?
1) Hold Open Democratic Seats
Maryland (Congressman Ben Cardin looks like Democrats' best hope.)
Minnesota (Republican Congressman Mark Green will be formidable opponent for whichever Democrats wins nomination. None of the Democratic candidates has high name recognition. Too bad somebody like former Congressman Tim Penny or HHH's son, former State Attorney General, is not running. Mondale's Son, much more moderate than Dad, would also possibly have been a good choice, even though both he and HHH, Jr., bit the dust two gubernatorial elections ago. Pawlenty, current Republican governor, also lost to Ventura.)
New Jersey (Corzine running for governor. Half Democratic Congressmen see a Senator when look in mirror. Democrats could have trouble if former moderate Republican Governor Tom Keene's son wins Republican nomination.)
Vermont (Democratic candidate is self-proclaimed Socialist Congressman Bernie Sanders. Not my kind of Democrat. Could have some trouble if Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie runs, but Dubie may decide has better chance of taking Sanders' House seat. Unfortunate that Independent Senator Jeffords, moderate former Republican who caucuses with Democrats, has retired because of concerns over wife.)
2) Hold Seats facing potentially serious Republican Challenges
Florida (Things looking up for Bill Nelson. Katherine Harris is her own worst enemy)
Michigan (Stabenow, along with Cantwell, was supposed to be one of Democrats' weakest incumbents. However, Republicans having trouble fielding good candidate.)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson yet to get truly formidable Republican opponent.)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad praying Republican Governor Hoeven doesn't get into race. Would be fierce contest. Hoeven very popular, perhaps more so than Conrad.)
Washington (Cantwell was supposed to be in trouble, but so far polls showing her to be in pretty good shape.)
West Virginia (Byrd may have trouble against Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito if she runs. Her Dad, a former governor and ex-convict, and the RSCC certainly want her to run. She is the Republicans' only hope. Her Daddy is hoping for ultimate political vindication. Thus far, polls matching Byrd against Capito show him winning, but he is old and many West Virginians think he is now "too Liberal.")
3) Win Six of the Following Seats, or More if Things Worse Than Hoped Above. Only eight seats listed below. Hardly seems likely, unless Democrats get further breaks.
Arizona (Pederson just entered race)
Mississippi (If Trent Lott decides not to run -- lost house in Katrina and most of net worth, Democrats would have very remote chance of pickup. Under those circumstances, following Democrats could run: former Congressman and Cabinet Secretary Mike Espy, State Supreme Court Justice James Graves, State Attorney General Jim Hood, former Governor Ray Mabus, ex-Attorney General Mike Moore, and Congressman Gene Taylor.)
Missouri (McCaskill taking on Talent. Nearly elected governor in 2004.)
Montana (Morrison and Tester competing to take on Conrad Burns. Under right conditions, Burns could have trouble, although currently running ten points or more ahead. Close ties to Abramoff.)
Ohio (No candidate yet. At this point, two Democratic gubernatorial candidates and no Senate candidates. Best current bet is if pugilistic Iraq veteran Paul Hackett gets in. Nearly won overwhelmingly Republican Seat in special election in/near Cincinnati.)
Pennsylvania (Pro-life, pro-gun and pro-Defense Casey giving Santorum the scare of his life)
Virginia (No candidate for Democrats yet. Best bet was centrist Governor Mark Warner but seems intent on running for President. Some rumors that Republican James Webb, former Navy Secretary, thinking of challenging Allen as either a Republican or Democrat. Webb is conservative and a Hawk, but was violently opposed to Iraq and has nothing but contempt for Bush. Doubt much basis to this hope.)
Rhode Island (Center-Left Sheldon Whitehouse and very Liberal Matt Brown competing to take on Chafee. Chafee also faces challenge from right. Moderate Democratic Congressman Jim Langevin would have given Chafee a real race for his money; however, womens groups and pro-Abortion groups ran Langevin out of the race. Democrats best bet is if right beats Chafee in Republican primary. Liberal Democrats doubtlessly cheering on Right-Wing Club for Growth in RI.)
HST, can I repost that on my blog?
Daniel -- How are you? Be my guest. I did not write it up in a very formal or elegant manner. I just dashed it off as my current thoughts.
I'll be damned if I didn't have to look up "escutcheon" in the dictionary. Who needs a Word a Day calendar when I have comments such as this.
Greg -- Thought you always liked my comments. Only trying to help out. Regards, Scoop Jackson Democrat P.S. I am also HST. Seemed little enthusiasm for Scoop Jackson Democrats here and you seemed increasingly preoccupied with Texas, so I disappeared.
Daniel -- I did get one reply by E-MAIL. Probably not worth effort of writing the above, but here is the sum total of the responses, with the exception of yours and Greg Wythe's. Below you will see my response.
E-MAIL in response to me --
Here in California we keep getting exactly two choiceres: DiFi and some
Republican Darth Vader (or Boxer and Darth Vader). Not much choice,
but better than my brother's choices in North Carolina, where the
Empire keeps winning in various forms.
I really, really wanted Hackett to win.
I'm betting you're reading dailykos.com now and then, or at least
talkingpointsmemo.com. I like talkingpointsmemo.com a little better,
but Kos is the man to go to to follow congressional races. You might
like Marshall Wittman at bullmooseblog.com.
My Response:
No, I didn't get my thoughts from DAILY KOS. I do scan DAILY KOS, however. I sometimes do read Josh Marshall either in Hill News or TALKING POINTS MEMO. I also read POLITICS1, Hill News itself and Roll Call. I read Ed Kilgore and Marshall Whitman at the Democratic Leadership Council's Blog. The best place to follow individual Congressional races on a current basis is in POLITICS1. As a political junkie, to obtain data on individual districts and states and their political histories, demographics, etc., you will find the Almanac of American Politics and the Congressional Quarterly counterpart are the place to go. At least I think so. Yes, you are right that DAILY KOS, MYDD and OUR CONGRESS run assessments of the House and Senate races. That is the one facet of these three Blogs/WEBSITEs that I really do like, although these Blogs' extremely Liberal biases sometimes severely affects the analysis.
As you could tell from my preface, I believe in 1932-1968 style New Deal, Fair Deal, New Frontier, and Great Society Liberalism. In other words, I was a Cold War Liberal, who believes in updating Harry Truman-style foreign and defense policies to the present day conditions (End of Cold War, Afghanistan, GWOT, foolish war in Iraq, Iran, Korea, etc, but the focus of foreign policy also should be much broader than this). I would like to think of myself as a pro-Defense Liberal, which isn't to say pro-Iraq War, but I fear that the definition of Liberalism has changed since I was much younger, which is one of many reasons the Democrats have such difficulty in competing in red States and Districts. The old New Dealers and Cold War Liberals were relatively Conservative socially and culturally by today's standards and I believe that modern social and cultural liberalism are "dragging us down" in many parts of the country. In other words, what works politically in the Northeast, many parts of the West Coast and in many big Northern cities, doesn't work elsewhere at all. The current image of the Democratic Party certainly undermined the abilities of Gore and Kerry to build winning coalitions and score an Electoral College triumph, leaving aside Machiavellian machinations in Florida.
I empathize with you and your very unusual California politics. Push comes to shove, I also would choose Diane Feinstein over Darrell Issa, this year's likely Darth Vader. Boxer, of course, faced Bill Jones in 2004 and Matt Fong in 1998. I would choose either Democratic Senator over a right winger of today's variety, although I am not Boxer's biggest fan. I would also be putting top priority on defeating Arnold Schwarzenegger and finding a candidate not only capable of doing that, but also capable of governing effectively. Your potential nominees, according to Barone and Cohen at the Almanac of American Politics, would seem to include:
Phil Angelides (D) - State Treasurer, Ex-State Democratic Chair & Businessman
Rob Reiner (D) - Movie Director, Actor & Liberal Activist
Loretta Sanchez (D) - Congresswoman & Ex-Financial Analyst
and/or
Steve Westly (D) - State Controller & Ex-Internet Executive.
You would be in a better position than I to say which might make the best Democratic nominee and governor. I do know that I have received several solicitations for contributions on behalf of Angelides. Thus, Angelides must be the candidate of at least portions of the Democratic establishment. I have a hard time imaging Loretta Sanchez giving up her Congressional seat, unless she takes leave of her senses. I also can't really imagine Reiner running. I don't know how serious Westly is contemplating competing for the gubernatorial nomination. What is your assessment of the gubernatorial race and the Democrats' prospects?
I am not sure that things are so bad in North Carolina, as you might think. In other words, the Democrats may not have the Senate seats now, but do hold the governorship and are players. Edwards, I think, could have held his seat against Richard Burr. Democratic Congressman Bobby Ethridge would have made a much more formidable candidate against either Liddy Dole or Burr. North Carolina's governor is Democrat Mike Easley. He is a two-term governor, if memory serves. The Democrats have six out of thirteen North Carolina House seats. The Congressman from Fayetteville and Ft. Bragg, believe it or nor, is a Democrat. The Congressman from my old district is Blue Dog Democrat Mike McIntyre. In NC8, Republican Robin Hayes had a tight race against Chris Kouri in 2002. Kouri received 44%, despite only raising one-seventh of the money that Hayes did. This time around it would seem that Hayes will be facing a North Carolina Paul Hackett type, Tim Dunn. Dunn is an Iraq veteran and, hopefully, has Hackett's fighting spirit. In NC11, Charlie Taylor will find himself facing a better funded candidate than Patsy Keever, who herself received 45%. Heath Shuler will be taking on Taylor, who has severe and rather well known ethics problems. He will have much stronger Democratic Party and DCCC backing than did Keever, who only had half as much money as Taylor and had to contend with Republican PACs and 527s who came into NC11.
I agree with you about Paul Hackett. I gave him $40 and would have given him much more in his special election bid in OH2 against Jean Schmidt, but time was too short and I don't believe in conducting business over the INTERNET. I am very much hoping that Hackett will run against Senator DeWine or mount another challenge against Schmidt, preferably the former. Ohio has two credible gubernatorial candidates Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman and southern Ohio Congressman Ted Strickland, but no Senate candidates, at this point. There are actually quite a number of Iraq veterans like Hackett who are running for Congress around the country. I am giving money to several of them. I obviously would give more money to a Hackett Senate bid.
Fear not, I picked up the dual identities via an IP check long ago ;-)
Hackett is running for Senate last I heard.
HST and Scoop are one and the same?
I read Politics1.com daily!
Hackett has not yet formally declared his candidacy.
Yes.
You are wise to do so. Politics1 is a good site.
I was linked there in January for a while!