Polling for SD7

Via Quorum Report:

Dan Patrick ... 38%
Undecided ..... 25%
Peggy Hamric .. 13%
Joe Nixon ..... "single digits"
Mark Ellis .... "single digits"

Polling done by Vitale & Associates, MOE of 4.9%.

It's a bit early for reading much into the polls. As Chris Elam notes, Joe Nixon is already running radio ads, which pales in comparison to the radio exposure Dan Patrick has among the talk radio set. I think you're going to see 4 (or more) very different campaigns as each candidate has to play to their strengths:

- for Dan Patrick, that means keeping a hold on the soft support he's got now and letting it gel into firmer support. If he doesn't screw up or go off the deep end (big ifs), he'd make a runoff on name ID alone.

- for Peggy Hamric, there's a two-sided advantage to work on: her home turf in the Champions Forest area and a more natural appeal to GOP women. That's a big enough base to make a runoff with. I'd argue that of the pack listed here, Peggy's got the biggest upside potential (apologies to Mel Kiper for lingo theft). State Reps always start from behind when they take on a State Senate or Congressional race. The name ID is always small. But if she's got any campaign skills to speak of, she should be able to win some converts along the way.

- for Joe Nixon, it's time to start cashing in those IOUs and turning them into campaign donations. If there's any State Rep this side of Tom Craddick who's carried heavier water for a bigger interest in Texas than Joe has for big insurance, I hate to think they're serving in elected office. But the financial edge this gives Nixon isn't without some mention. He already starts off with somewhere near $200k in campaign cash. So the early radio ads fit well within a strategy of spending money to get known and win converts. Joe'll have plenty to pitch since he's the bagman for the so-called conservative cause in the lege.

- Mark Ellis ... I have some doubts about the 67% name ID that the poll grants him. That's second best of the bunch and not insignificantly behind Patrick's 83% as far as local elections go. Methinks part of Ellis' number, however, reflects the common name rather than the "serious" publicity that Houston City Councilmen get while in office. The fact that his Favorable and Unfavorable results are more in line with the likes of Nixon & Hamric is also telling on this count. But I still refuse to believe that voters in SD7 can bring themselves to vote for a Houston City Councilman. Not that Ellis isn't trying. He's already run as hard right as he can on the issue of immigration while still being taken somewhat seriously. But Ellis also has a few stakes in his history that will be a deathknell for him once the campaign heats up. Ellis, after all, DID represent the Gulfton area of Houston for 4 years. His (*ahem*) "lack of interest" in immigration back then might be a bit newsworthy to Ellis' newfound potential constituents.

Aside from that, I'm a bit surprised Ben Streusand was left off this poll. Then again, if I were trying to max out a poll that showed Dan Patrick in the best light possible, I'd compare him in a field of candidates that very few people in Northwest Harris County know a lick about. I'm not sure where I scout Ben at in a field with Patrick, but methinks they compete for a few of the same voters at least. The same might also be said of John (the) Devine (of Tomball).

Of course, I'd love to see Nixon nominated here. I can think of no better way to maximize the Dem vote in SD7 than by nominating a guy who took a $300,000 bribe from Farmer's Insurance.

UPDATE: Chris reports that Ben Streusand isn't taking a shot at SD7, but should be announcing for SD18 (Ken Armbrister's district) soon, along with Herman Brune (of Columbus), and Gary Gates (of somewhere in Ft. Bend County).