Not too many big shocks for the 2005 City Elections here in H-town (full, official list here).
Mayor: Bill White, as expected, has no substantive competition. Gladys Marie House, Anthony Dutrow, Luis Ullrich and Jack Terence are in the race, but the accumulated total of their prior races clocks in at less than 1% ... total. The challenge for White, now, is to reach Bob Lanier territory (80% or better) and outdo his 63% of the vote in 2003.
Controller: Annise Parker ... uncontested. Major shock here. The Texas GOP succeeded in the all-important question of whether or not Texas needs the double-lock protection of keeping gay marriage out of our minds and Annise is leading the charge against the amendment here in Houston. Annise also has a history of barely hanging on in the face of asinine rightwing amendments drawing out an increase of GOP voters. So why no competition?
At Large #1: This open seat is only slightly more complicated than it was a few months ago. But it's still Peter Brown's to lose. He'll spend more money than probably even Bill White. All he's got to do is spend it in a smart way. The team he's got for executing the plan is young, but impressive. They'll get the job done. Roy Morales is, effectively, the opposition here. He'll get as much mileage as the Harris County GOP decides to put behind him. My guess ... not much. There were GOP candidates eager to challenge Peter over his involvement with Blueprint Houston (which, they would argue, is a pro-zoning group). Morales was outraised by perennial candidate, Michael "Griff" Griffin. The only question here is whether Peter wins this without a runoff. Right now, it's hard to see how he doesn't.
At Large #2: This one's the dogfight of the bunch. Jay Aiyer is the money leader and possesses the type of endorsments that seem to scream: "There's more where that came from." Sue Lovell is getting endorsements here and there. But endorsements are about the weakest indicator of them all in city politics. In and of themselves, they're meaningless. John Elford has been in this race for longer, but he's apparently so impressed his fellow GOP enough to have them enlist another Republican into the race: Poli Acosta. I've got no clear read on Acosta's campaign yet, but the late start ain't gonna help him. James Neal represents a late entry into this race, but will likely only get votes from people playing "Eenie Meanie Miney Moe" with the names on the ballot. The sheer number of entrants and the lack of a big name (ala Peter Brown this season) almost dictate that this race will go into a runoff. If a lot of things go right for Jay and certain things fall apart for Lovell, Acosta, and Elford, it might not. But that's a lot to expect for now.
At Large #3: James Partsch-Galvan jumped into this race against incumbent, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Gibbs has been among the most vacuous councilmembers during her term. It ranks as a disappointment that many of the Dem candidates herded into a few races and left Gibbs and Michael Berry with a virtual free shot to their final term in office. Given how quiet Shelley's been this past term, I suspect both candidates could sleep off the entire campaign and the results would still be something around 60-40 for the incumbent, Gibbs.
At Large #4: Ron Green (inc) ... unopposed. Only surprising considering that, depending on your view, Green lucked into/stealthily massaged a few truths/took advantage of every opportunity he had in order to win last time. He's still a bit of an enigma on the campaign trail, so I guess my only surprise is that absolutely nobody was willing to test their own abilities against Ron's. That said, I like Ron. But he could be a stronger campaigner.
At Large #5: Michael Berry (inc) has shown a never-ending ability to alter his approach to the office depending on his ambition of the moment. When campaigning for his first term on council, he ran a curious combination of conservatives and African-American votes (we'll call this the Jack Kemp coalition). Then, after fancying himself Mayor, a hard right tack was taken during his first term of office (even harder during his brief run for mayor). Now that Bill White has pretty much defined the lay of the land here in Houston politics, the Boy Wonder has morphed himself into Establishment Man and has gotten with the program by helping Mayor White at every chance possible. That'd likely be enough to help Berry against anyone, but regardless of what one thinks of Berry's politics, his tenacity on the campaign trail cannot be disputed. So it is that what used to be Houston's most right-leaning member of council is now a shoe-in depsite the token opposition of Michael Stoma. Normally, I'd say a Rip Van Winkle approach (as stated in AL#3) might lead to a 55-45 Berry win. Unless Stoma raises something in the six figure range for his campaign (which I'm extremely doubtful of), I'd say Berry and White might want to inject some healthy competition over who wins a higher percentage. Look for Houston Democrats to make more concerted efforts at both 4 & 5 next time, when they'll be open. As it is, council is going to return to being a majority-Dem council after December. But 2007 could be a significant time for Dems at the City level. For now, gradualism is the name of the game.
Among the district races ...
A: Dennis Carter will challenge incumbent, Toni Lawrence. I use the term "challenge" very loosely. Carter got 5% of the vote when he ran in a more crowded field in 2003.
B: Wide open race here. The basic question is whether voters in the district wish to establish a legacy by electing the daughter of the term-limited incumbent (Carol Mims Galloway) or ... anyone else. There's a lot of anyone elses available. This one gets decided in December.
C: Seemingly wide open, but George Hittner is running away in the money race. Question is, who makes it into the runoff with him. Herman Litt and Anne Clutterbuck would be heavy faves for that. Either would be fighting uphill. My standard disclaimer for this race: I'm supportive of Mark Lee, but I've met Herman a few times and I've left very impressed every time. Glad I don't have to choose.
Sidenote to C ... It must have been a slow campaign night Wednesday as I managed to witness Brian Cweren personally posting some huge campaign signs on a construction fence caddy-corner to Lakewood Church.
D: Ada Edwards ... uncontested.
E: Addie Wiseman ... uncontested.
F: A little gamesmanship here? Follow along ... M.J. Khan is the incumbent. But now we have a mysterious entry of a K.A. Khan who apparently filed on the last day. If I might engage in a little conspiracy theory, I might suggest this is a ploy by fellow challenger, John Shike. I engage in this because I'll personally find it hilarious if K.A. gets more votes than Shike. M.J.'s not in much danger of losing ... even less of having to go into a runoff. Shike ran last time and got 9% of the vote. He then tried to run for the Democratic nomination of Harris County Sheriff (fortunately, he lost). He's got some serious personal baggage that ought to keep anyone from voting for him. M.J.'s a Republican, so's his chief of staff. His treasurer, however, is not. As a Democrat, I make no apologies for claiming the importance of reelecting the Republican in this race.
G: Pam Holm ... uncontested. Considering that the prior election saw EVERY non-runoff challenger endorse the other runoff contestant and also that Holm won that primary by only a very Vo-like margin, this is a bit of a surprise ... I'll call this one a surprise.
H: Adrian Garcia ... token challenge (Larry Williams).
I: Carol Alvarado ... token challenge (John Parras).
Non-candidate surprises? A meager few: no Gabe Vasquez? ... no Hector Longoria? These were supposed to be the major up-and-comers among GOP Hispanics back in the days when Orlando Sanchez .... oh right, never mind.
The net result of what should happen this election is that the council loses one GOP incumbent (Mark Ellis) to term limits and replaces him with a Dem (Peter Brown). That's enough to tilt the council from a GOP majority to a Dem majority. There's an outside chance - I repeat ... outside chance - of gaining a switch in District C (Goldberg for either Litt or Lee). But the biggest potential for change will occur in 2007 as Gibbs and Berry exit.
A slow campaign night?
Personally, I think posting one's own signs
every now and then is a sign of a hard-working
campaigner & a great future representative.
Brian Cweren has my vote for District C & if
I were placing bets, I wouldn't be so quick
to count him out.
He seems to be the ONLY candidate in that race
heeding the warning of what happened in New
Orleans by asking the important question:
Are We Ready??? (if the Bayou overflow in Houston)
SEE: http://brian2005.com/
Please galvanize and vote for James Partsch-Galvan for Houston City Council At-Large Position #3 November 8, 2005 (713)528-2607 www.galvan.org
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Can I go back to sleep now!? Damn! I was going to go out and give out my 1000 business cards that I bought at Office Max for $11.99, but I think I will take me a nap. Maybe I will get motivated later on. I WILL NOT PAY ALOT FOR THIS CAMPAIGN! $500.00 filing fee and maybe $100.00 on campaign literature. I am fru(GAL)!
Partsch-Galvan vs Sekula-Gibbs. Hypnenated last names!
I was the first person with a hyphenated last name to run for any political office where the hyphenated last name came from a spouse of the same gender! Vote against intolerance! Vote AGAINST Proposition 2(HJR 6) on November 8, 2005! The Time Has Come To Galvanize! 2005
Just make sure Brian and his support team do no post signs on property without consent of owner. I saw him pulling out of his home in Meyerland in his gas sucking black SUV on a Jewish holiday with signs in the back - ready to post.