From QR($)
State Rep. Peggy Hamric (R-Houston) will formally announce her campaign for the Senate seat currently held by Jon Lindsay (R-Houston). Lindsay announced his retirement last week.
Hamric will make the announcement before her chapter of the Texas Federation of Republican Women in north Houston.
Joe Nixon (R-Houston) is the only other formally announced candidate. Former Republican congressional primary candidate Ben Streusand is also reported to be interested in the seat.
Nixon's official already? How did I miss that? Even better question ... where's this announcement on Quorum Report prior to this? Ah well, this just turns up the heat:
Hamric's district is crimson red, but it's due to being drawn much like Nixon's 133rd ... Republican in the north, and Democratic in the south. Put a hard-working Democrat in that race and organize the southern portion of the district (minority, transient, young adults), and this district can move.
The 133rd just got a little bit harder for us Dems. I've heard from previous whispers that James Murphy will take the mantle for the GOP, while Robert Pham's name has been out there for the good guys. Pham's Vietnamese heritage will help in what is the second-most Vietnamese district in the State. But then again, Hubert Vo's district only has less than 20% Vietnamese voters in it. It'll be a dogfight in a tight district and we've just lost the best opponent we could possibly have had.
SD7 ... Hamric's entry clouds things up, but I still think Nixon is the front-runner. He's got tons of jack in the bank thanks to not having been seriously challenged in the past. He's carried water for big insurance ever since being elected. He's the most partisan GOP member in the county. He's got, I think, the most in the IOU bank as well. Hamric will play well to the GOP ladies as well as her Champions Forest base (which is a bigger chunk of the district than Nixon represents). Not an easy race to call ... like a lot of these districts, whichever candidate has the best field org. in March is likely to win it.
Taken together, though, we've got two open House seats now held by the GOP and a State Senate seat which may well see the GOP nominate a crook for the seat. Three good reasons to run in each district, if you ask me. We should be able to bump up our totals in each region by a few points simply by running an active campaign.
Peggy Hamric's district can move??????
Are you on crack? Cornyn got 70.3%, Dewhurst 68.8% in this district. Even lunatic Steve Smith got 67% in his '02 Supreme Court Race.
I'd come a little closer to buying it about Nixon's seat (Cornyn 61%, Dewhurst 59.7%, Smith 57.3%), but even that is a tough row to hoe.
Just to remind everybody, in Vo's district it was Cornyn 56.3%, Dewhurst 55.0% and Smith 53.3%. And Vo won by 30 votes against an asshole.
So reality needs to set in here - Nixon's seat, probably not, but there might be a way.
Hamric's seat, no way in hell. There just aren't enough horses in the stable for that one. Not even close.
Thanks for the drug test ... but considering that much of Hamric's current district hasn't seen a contested election in eons, I'll stand by my argument that there's room for Dem growth in that district. I used to live in the southern area of this district and know full-well that it's a very transient population that, if actively worked, can show a good increase in votes. Enough to win it outright? Only if a ton of things fall into place. But room for growth nonetheless. Last I checked, that's movement.
BTW, the basis you're evaluating the 133rd is flawed. It's one of the fastest growing districts in the county, and the growth is among minorities and apartment dwellers. The 2004 results were 44-56 Kerry-Bush. They're still building apartments along Westheimer in this district and there's a few huge complexes that have just begun leasing in the last few months. That one's ripe for an all out switch, even though not having Nixon to kick around will make it more of a challenge. 2002 results doesn't apply very well in this district as we made up 10% points in a two year span.
Apartment dwellers are the least likely voter group to turn out in a mid-term year. They just don't vote.
Plus, at this point there'sno Democrat yet at the top of the ticket to drive up turnout.
It sure won't be Chris Bell, he can't raise enough money to pay the light bill.
Texas Democrats need a Roy Spence or some fresh face with clean hands and resources.
Frankly running a woman would be better - it worked in 1990!
By the time Rick Perry would get done exposing Bell's city council votes, his own mother wouldn't recognize him.
Gee, then why bother running at all?
BTW - if a district could not be won by working apartment complexes, then how do you explain Scott Hochberg being elected?
Based on what do you continue to define Bob Pham as a Democrat?
Thus far, a nifty $3,000 check cut to the Hubert Vo campaign and that Andrew Tran has stated that Pham is going to seek the nomination in 133 as a Democrat.