Finish The Job ...

Today's the last day before Election Day up in Ohio. We're at $2100 for our localized efforts. How much more does Texas have for an Honorary Texan?

Paul Hackett (OH-02)	$

FIGHT EM ALL UPDATE: Good post over at MyDD on the Run Everywhere concept as it pertains to Congressional races.

GOTV UPDATE: SwingState is saying Team Hackett needs a final $30k to run an all out GOTV effort ... so more is definitely needed.

MONEY UPDATE: Hackett's apparently hit the $30k mark for the GOTV money tomorrow. Still no reason not to give, though. Campaigns that go down to the wire tend to have a debt afterwards and there's no good reason to see this cause hampered by that.

SPIN UPDATE: The spin is already starting from all sides. Michael Meckler, an Ohio GOP blogger, is calling it 57-43 Shmidt based on a slight drop in Bush's support since November and a marginal effect of the "Stay at Home" message one conservative group is running ads for. Meckler states that he doubts the ads will have an effect, yet nevertheless suggests that anything better than his prediction for Schmidt will be a decisive win:

In this analysis, I assume a turnout tomorrow of only 60,000 voters, roughly the same turnout as at the primary election (little more than 15% of registered voters). I worked from the percentage of the vote won by President Bush in each county of the district in last November's election, transfering the percentage to Schmidt. I see very little evidence that Bush voters support Hackett, despite the wishful thinking of Hackett's advertising strategists. I did, however, shave some of Bush's percentages down slightly to reflect the president's drop in popularity since the November election. I also removed most of the Hamilton County primary supporters of Tom Brinkman from the election, based upon the call to boycott the election by the Citizens Opposed to Additional Spending and Taxes (COAST). I do not, in fact, believe that the boycott will be that effective, but I wanted to examine the numbers in a manner that was the most sympathetic to Hackett's campaign.

The results? Schmidt wins by 9,000 votes, picking up 57% of the total vote against Hackett's 43%.

...

If Hackett loses the race but ends up with more than 43% of the vote, it should be reckoned a "respectable loss", and Hamilton County Democrats would be wise to run Hackett (who now lives in Indian Hill) against Phil Heimlich for county commissioner in 2006. If Schmidt pulls in more than 57% of the vote, it should be reckoned a "decisive win", since the victory will be by more than 15 points and likely by more than 10,000 votes.

So Meckler minimized his own prediction in order to increase the odds of a "decisive win" happening. I'd say he should be working for the Taft administration by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the editor of the OH2 blog puts it rather simply: $500,000. That's how much the RNC had to spend in order to carry a weak candidate over the finish line in the most Republican district in Ohio. Imagine if the RNC had to spend that kind of money to re-elect John Culberson here in the Houston area. Now remind yourself of this ... the Ohio 2nd is MORE Republican then either Culberson's 7th CD or DeLay's 22nd CD. Do the math, folks.

For my own thoughts, I think it comes down to this: we fought hard in the Ohio 2nd. We made the other side spend money they shouldn't have had to spend at all. Hackett's campaign has personified the case for running in every election in a way that a million blog posts could never have argued. Hackett serves as an inspiration to Democrats everywhere, just as Richard Morrison's campaign against Tom DeLay did in 2004. Win or lose, the net benefits are just ridiculously lopsided in our favor. Yeah, I hope a political miracle happens and Hackett wins. But if it happens, it'll be a close one. It's already impossible to see him losing to the tune of 28-72. And yet, when the case is made for fielding candidates everywhere, it has to be necessary for such candidates to see the benefits they can bring by gaining 3-5 more percentage points above the previous year. In Hackett's case, he's likely to raise the roof on such gains and push into Chet Edwards territory for running ahead of the top of the ticket.

The lefty blogosphere is already debating what his campaign strategy means in terms of playing to the base, moving to the middle, and all the usual debates we get into. I think that's meaningless. When OH2 says "Paul Hackett has done all this and he?s never wavered on any of the issues that Beltway Democrats traditional shy away from in order to attract 'swing voters'. He supports gay rights, he is pro choice.. if you ask him he says so, and he gives you good reasons that anyone would understand." ... I think that's disingenuous. It's also a rather conventient case of amnesia in regards to Hackett's take on gun control (he's against it ... and when you ask him, he STILL gives you good reasons that anyone would understand). Team Hackett is also presently making their case to moderate and independents. But the campaign's street team is actively going after known Democrats for one very good reason - this is a special election, with far lower turnout. In a special, if you turn out your base in greater numbers, you win. Hands down. That doesn't keep you elected, though. Still, there's more than a few bloggers out there who think they're seeing the wheel reinvented when, in fact, they're seeing the millionth special election strategy done the same way, just with more money, more energy, and more volunteers. When all of those things come together for a candidate, great things can happen.

Team Hackett is much smarter in their strategy, I think, than any single blogger is likely to acknowledge - myself included. But as many of us have noted before, Paul Hackett has already won. Whether he's made the other side spend $500,000 or $5, he's already won. Whether he's matched the other side's TV buys, whether he's got the resources for an adequate GOTV effort tomorrow, or what have you ... he's already won. For that reason, I even have to take offense at those who suggest 'the netroots made this race' ... they didn't. Paul Hackett made this race. Period.

Long before the voters in Southern Ohio have their say in who represents them, Paul Hackett has reminded Democrats everywhere that every district deserves a challenge, every Democratic voter deserves a voice for their beliefs, every undecided voter deserves an alternative, every dissatisfied Republican deserves a path for their own recovery process, every Republican candidate deserves a vigorous challenge ... and of course, every race must be run by a living, breathing, street-walking candidate. We don't even have to wait for election day to realize that.