Still tweaking some code on the voting data, but a few items of some interest to add:
The multicounty First District Court of Appeals race between Jim Sharp and Evelyn Keyes has always been a close one. Eric Andell won Harris County only to lose the overall race in 2000, while Jim Sharp pulled down much the same overall percentage while losing Harris County. But the Presidential vote in the region (about a quarter of the state) was 55-45 Bush, with Sharp only losing 47-53. Should we end up with a better ticket running at the top, this district could be very interesting for 2006.
The targetted Dems in 2004 seem to have all hit around 7-8% better than Kerry, with the rest of the Democratic challengers having a hard time identifying independent voters:
Targetted ...
- Sandlin: 38% to Kerry's 30%
- Lampson: 44% to Kerry's 37%
- Edwards: 52% to Kerry's 30%
- Stenholm: 41% to Kerry's 22%
- Frost: 44% to Kerry's 40%
Other Challengers ...
- Nickerson (4th CD): 30.85 to Kerry's 29.42
- Meyer (6th CD): 33.13 to Kerry's 33.6
- Martinez (7th CD): 34.19 to Kerry's 35.88
Why is Chet Edwards a national hero here in Texas? Bush carried the 17th CD 70-30. That's why. Part and parcel of the reason I've been of the opinion that Chet ought to follow up that successful win by taking on a statewide race, though, is that longevity is not a given in a district such as that. Yeah, the Aggie connection helps a good deal. But not every opponent is going to be as egregious as Arlene Wohlgemuth.
One point REALLY worth some attention ... Ron Paul got 173k votes to Bush's 203k in the 14th CD. The Presidential vote in the district as 66-33 Bush, but with enough dropoff of Paul's vote, a strong Congressional matchup seems to point towards something like a 58-42 split for Paul if the race were to be contested. Based on the high vote dropoff that happened with no contest, I'll dare to suggest that this district is far more within reach than I've given it credit for being previously. Maybe John Sharp ought to rethink which race he's exploring ...
Hispanic districts won by Bush:
- 15th CD (Ruben Hinojosa): 56-44 Bush
- 27th CD (Solomon Ortiz): 55-45 Bush
- 28th CD (Henry Cuellar): 52-48 Bush
For John Courage ... the 21st CD went 60-40 Bush, with Rhett Smith getting only 35.5%. There's room to make that one very competitive.
John Sharp lives in Austin now, and has lived there since 94.
Regarding Chet Edwards; If he can barely hold off the Wohlgubeast, much less a somewhat less extreme GOP candidate, does he really have the political moxie to take on a state-wide office?
You know far more about our state poltics than I do, but I just don't see many potential angles for Democrats in Texas at the state-wide level.
Dustin -- Your logic seems good. I am not a Texan. However, it would seem to me that the Democrats' best chance statewide comes if KBH decides to remain in the Senate. Perry's negatives are very high. Under that scenario, Greg Wythe's candidate, Mr. Bell, would seem to have a fair chance.
I think the Dems best chance is if Perry is the gubenatorial nominee. Either Chet Edwards or Jim Turner for gov. or senate. Paul Hobby for comptroller. Barbara Ann for Att. General. I'd like to see Kay run for gov. and lose the primary. She'll win either race if she's on the ticket.
Who would make the best candidate for the governor, Chris Bell or Jim Turner? Has Turner actually formed an exploratory committee? Any word about the health of Bell's wife? On another subject, any polling numbers on Lampson and DeLay?
Dustin,
"Barely" holding off Arlene was far from a gimme, though it's been noted that the 17th represents one of only the slightest of altered districts in the new map. Anytime you can find a way to win 20% more votes than the guy at the top of the ticket, you've got more than a little moxie. Had Democrats running statewide found a way to win half that extra edge in the 17th and in Stenholm's 2004 turf, they'd be winning Texas. It's no mistake that even hardened liberals in the Lone Star State have a certain appreciation for those two Congressmen.
Still, I think it's just a matter of time before Edwards is offed in that district. Maybe he can luck out here and there and possibly even retire victoriously, maybe not. A lot of that outcome relies on luck and has nothing to do with Chet's inate political talent. Arlene's two biggest drawbacks were her extremism (with the votes to go with it) and her location (she was from the northern part of the district, which left Chet free to find persuadables in Brazos County by highlighting his Aggie street cred). If the State Senator from Brazos County were to run against Chet, I think Chet would be on the losing side of the election, moxie or no moxie. I'd love to be proven wrong, but if I were, I think my case for Chet moving up the ladder would be louder, more pointed, and more annoying to pretty much everyone.
If Chet were to run statewide now, he could go across the state proclaiming his success to win over any remaining doubters among moderates and Dems. Plus, the recent success in Brazos County might be more applicable to a race two years later than say, after he loses a Congressional election.
Timmd,
Having devoted more than a healthy amount of time crafting various dream team lineups, I'm down with the one you offer. But as we get closer to filing time, reality must intrude. Barbara would be great at anything she sets out to do. I wish we had a candidate for State Supreme Court Justice with half her resume. But she's set on the US Senate. More power to her in that endeavor. Paul Hobby seems more likely to bide his time and wait. What for? ... who knows. Ideologically and personally, I'd quit whatever day job I had to help him in whatever race he took on next. But right now, we need candidates, not just great people to put on a wish list. I wish Paul would run for anything and pour his heart into the race. But that's a lot to ask and so far, it doesn't look like that request is going anywhere.
Scoop,
I like both Jim & Chris, obviously. Chris is a friend and Jim's son is a friend. Jim's background is rather diverse. He's been a mayor, a state legislator, and a US Congressman. For my own 2-cents, I tend to think his work on the Homeland Defense committee was sheer genius, and for that reason, I'd wish him into the US Senate if I had a magic genie granting wishes. His military service seems to be an attribute that just seems to be underutilized in state government. But having been in local and state gov't, it's not like he doesn't have a grasp on issues closer to home. I'm just biased on this count. Haven't heard anything yet to indicate Turner is going to run in 2006 lately.
Re: Chris' chances ... I'll save a few thoughts till after a blogger conference call with Chris on Monday. For now, I'm not so defeatist that I accept the inevitability of KBH winning a general if she survives a primary. I think there's a growing body of evidence that can be illuminated to make the case for a Democratic revival in this great state. Given Chris' proximity to the heart of that matter, I naturally think he's the best one to make the case for reform. But again ... I'm biased as all getout.
Chris did speak about Alison's recovery during the last conference call with bloggers and said things are looking up for her, but that they'd have a more definitive read sometime next month. Chris' official declaration of his candidacy will be contingent on that prognosis. I saw Alison a while back at a meet & greet and she was her usual upbeat, spirited self. All I can think is that she'll make an awesome First Lady.
Re: polling for DeLay ... nothing public that I've seen with a head-to-head count. I think it's more advisable for Lampson to wait until he's done a bit of name ID building in Ft. Bend and points westard within the district before releasing a poll, though.