After getting an updater from Houston's own email muckraker, Carl Whitmarsh, there's a few tidbits he writes about that I've heard from probably the same circles as he has, but haven't really had a good opening to put down in blog form. For now, many of these rank as rumors and other assorted water-cooler talk, so make of it what you will:
Senate District 17 - Kyle Janek is a fairly safe incumbent in that the district is roughly 60-40 GOP and the trick for a Dem to win amounts to making the Harris County half of this district close (this portion votes 65-35 GOP). So Kyle's got a safe seat. But it's sounding like he's going to give it up since we Texans don't cotton much to paying our legislators a good salary. Janek is an anesthesiologist and definitely misses out on some big paychecks when he's sent to Austin. The GOP side of this is covered in the point below. As for Democrats, I have yet to hear a serious candidate express interest in running any type of competitive race.
The GOP side of the above equation has State Rep Martha Wong running for that seat. Smart move on her part as well as the Texas GOP. Sugar Land has a sizable Asian population and I'm sure the GOP would love to keep them in house for future elections. Aside from Martha, I'm not yet sure who has the ambition to try and contest that seat on the GOP side.
So what about that District 134 that Martha represents? That district will be a barnburner no matter what happens. It's close and competitive, and there's enough Democrats to win if they can be targetted, motivated, and show up on election day. Carl drops a name of one Elena Marks to run for our side. I've got no familiarity with Elena, but her position as a mayoral assistant is certainly a solid credential. This is one of those districts where there's never a shortage of good candidates to run & I've heard just about every politically motivated type mentioned as a candidate with some degree of seriousness. Full disclosure: 2004 candidate Byron Barclay is a friend, but I've got no insight to share there. Sorry. Reminds me ... I still have a DVD to return to Byron. Another name drop that I recall hearing from 2004 is Danny David. I'm not in the same orbit, so I have no clue what David's leaning towards doing. As for the GOP side of this race ... no clue. I'm sure some big names will pop up, though. This district has a high per-capita representation of political wannabes. If it's an open seat, look for a huge list of candidates on both sides would be my guess.
District 133 is a bit more known, but worth adding to the pot. Robert Pham is running for our side. I've heard James Murphy (HCCS Trustee) is going to make the race if Nixon moves on up to the State Senate. I've already noted that Nixon is eyeing the Senate seat held by Jon Lindsay. The added intrigue on that side is that maybe those rumors that Lindsay was going to retire weren't really all that much of a given. No idea what to make of all that. Wait & see.
Not really mentioned yet, but I'll openly ponder whether or not the Harris County GOP will field a candidate against Scott Hochberg. They thought they had him in their sites this past election. Only hitch was that the candidate that was recruited to run got bumped off by Ann Witt, who had strong grassroots connections and outworked Lee Zeiben in the primary. Will Zeiben give it another go? In a way, I hope someone runs against Scott because a competitive election there forces a lot of grassroots work to get out the vote of a lot of otherwise transient voters (80%+ are apartment dwellers). If the Harris County GOP were wise, they'd leave this one alone, though. I suspect the local activists will still do their part to get the vote out, but it's not the same with a door-to-door hard-fought campaign.
Carl mentions City Councilman Gordon Quan as possibly running against Tom DeLay. Personally, I'd be shocked as all getout to see that happen. Gordon, bless his heart, would lose in the primary as Richard Morrison already has a solid lock on the goodwill of Democrats across the nation. Everyone seems to think Gordon would love to run for partisan office, but this one doesn't look like his shot. Plenty of countywide offices are available from what I hear, though.
Some interesting news out of the At Large, Position 1 race this year here in Houston. After chomping at the bit over running against Peter Brown, Jeff Daily might be walking away from the fight? What's up with that? Maybe Jeff saw the long list of supporters and early money that Peter was putting together and realized there were better fights to pick. As it stands now, the race appears to have three Democrats: Brown, former Survivor contestant & UH track star Jolanda Jones, and former State Representative Diana Davila Martinez, who lost out on a district council seat to Adrian Garcia last time around. This could be an interesting "melting pot" race to see how strong ethnic support is in each camp. My hunch? Jones and Martinez don't exactly engender strong support in their respective communities and Peter is pretty well known based on his showing last time around. I'd guess this will come to a runoff. Martinez and her husband (former state representative Roman Martinez) are a powerful campaign team so they won't be a pushover. I'd pick them to finish second, thereby voting Jolanda off the island once more.
At Large 2 is pretty much a settled race, with Jay Aiyer kicking off his campaign in style last night with a fundraiser at the Four Seasons. Fellow Dem, Sue Lovell, did manage one bit of good news that she deserves credit for: former City Councilwoman Eleanor Tinsley's endorsement. If there's one political figure in Houston politics that deserves absolute reverence in my mind, it's Eleanor. Nothing seen or heard from the Republican, John Elford's campaign front.
Countywide for 2006, I've repeatedly heard David Mincberg is eyeing the County Judge gig. That pretty much guarantees that we won't be running a Hyundai Campaign at the top of that ticket. No other info on candidates for the remainder of the countywides as well as any top-tier judicial candidates considering a run.
Most interesting tidbit from Carl's note is this:
A local female attorney long active in Democratic Party politics is quietly lining up support for an expected run for Harris County Democratic Party Chair in 2006. Stay tuned for more on this one as it has the potential of making Dallas Democratic politics look tame....
If I may ... Carl is rather "out there" as not being a fan of the current party leadership. Fine and well - we all have our dragons to slay. But as one who both respects the thankless job that Gerry Birnberg has all while disagreeing with him from time to time on some key aspects of winning back Harris County, I don't think there's anything that can top Dallas County. And if there's anything here in Harris County that rivals that fracas, then it's the best kept secret in town. Without having a clue who this reference is to, I'm inclined to state right here and now that I'll cast my lot with Gerry Birnberg. Where we do disagree (however slightly or however greatly), Gerry is approachable, open, and fair. I'm not so egotistical to think I have all the answers, and I know Gerry to be cut of the same cloth. Somewhere between us, though, IS the answer. And anyone willing to find that common ground is a Democrat worth supporting in my mind. If anyone thinks they can do a better job, great ... let's hear em. But leave the rumor mongering out of it. Gerry never signed a letter of endorsment to a Republican federal judicial nominee on HCDP stationary. We had the meetings necessary to conduct party business in a timely fashion, and given the resources, it's hard to fault Gerry or anyone else at HCDP for what happened on election day.
Carl also mentions that there are some HISD seats open and recruitment is underway for them. I'd add that we Dems have a great candidate for another school district on the southwest side (Alief ISD): Thomas Price. I'll have some more news on that front to come next week. The election, however, is May 7.
Some more news not covered by Carl, but I'll add it to the "Stuff I May as Well Drop Out There Anyway" category ... Martin Frost to run for Texas Attorney General? ... John Sharp to run for US Senate? ... my head exploding over the prospect of a Frost-Van Os tussle for Attorney General?
So there ya go ... take it all for what it's worth.
Greg,
Good stuff! I think I know who the lawyer is.
But I did want to ask you: Campos put out a commentary about someone having sent out a letter to East End precinct chairs re: a race for city council. Do you know who this is? Is this a challenge to District I? Or could this possibly have been someone on your list to challenge Peter Brown?
If you know, please e-mail me at stace@medellingroup.com.
Thanks!
No clue who it is, but the first name that popped into my mind was Hector Longoria (who I believe was rumored in either At Large 1 and/or 2) for the sole reason that he's already been burned on one election of having to switch races. Second thought was "crank candidate" since most of the bigger name candidates are pretty much known. Guess we'll be able to determine soon enough, but if they're a serious candidate, they know to mention the seat they're running for.
The emails sent out were sent out PRIMARILY in District I although the supposed Democrat who signed the messages did not indicate whether he would be running for District I or for the at large postion (1 or 2?)
Rumor has it that there has been some recruitment to find challengers to Mayor Pro Tem Carol Alvarado although personally it seems that would be a kamikaze race.
Regarding the mention of Gordon Quan possibly looking to run against Tom Delay......Gordon lives in the 7th Congressional District and as far as I know, no one has been said to be running against Tom's Itty Bitty Brown-nose Buddy, John Culberson.
Of course, there may be the possibility of John Martinez challenging Culberson again.
Could the female attorney considering running for Dem.Chair be Phyllis Randolph Frey?
hehehe... I know Phil Fry. That man would be great for Dem. Chair! Definitely MANdate of the New Mainstream variety...
The Gordon Quan / CD 22 rumor is strong enough that Richard Morrison called me 3 weeks ago to see if I knew if there was any truth to it ... the answer is, not that I know of. The talk from multiple directions is that Gordon needs some time to spend in his law practice, which has been expanding to other cities. As for CD 22, a lot of people still wish that Chris Bell would go for that instead of governor, but Chris is too ambitious to look back.
I've been looking for a good SD 17 candidate for three years now, and practically no one will bite. Even though the real DPI is above 45, most people mistakenly think of the 60-40 split you erroneously posted (you could help by playing up the truth. Some see the DPI as high as 48). Gordon lives in SD 15, so that ruled him out (he would have been great!) ... Tim Riley was interested, but he just built a home near Highland Village (SD 15 I think), so he is out -- BUT! Now there is talk that Tim is interested in HD 134, the Wong seat. We'll see about that.
SD17 is such a screwy district though, running all the way from Louisiana through Galveston and Lake Jackson before curving north up through Brazoria, Fort Bend and the southwest corner of Harris.
True, a disproportionate part of the population lives in the near-Houston sector, but a Houston candidate is going to feel awfully alien to people down on the coast.
Have you tried talking to anybody down in the coastal counties about running?
At any rate, since the only part of Galveston county that is in the district is the island and the Bolivar peninsula, I'd reckon the Galveston part of SD17 to be in the neighborhood of 60-40 Democratic, if you get them out to vote.
A couple of items to add:
Re: Martha in SD17. If Janek doesn't run, I'd certainly see her taking a shot. While she'd be tough in a general election, I don't think she's a lock to survive the primary. Remember, the GOP primary is overwhelmingly Anglo and conservative. Martha already has problems with the right wing -- she didn't win her primary by much in 2004 as an incumbent. State Senate seats don't come open very often -- you can bet there will be some well-funded Anglo conservatives who get in.
County Judge -- the other name often message is former judge Eric Andell. He'd be a strong candidate. On the R side, question is whether Bettencourt runs. If he does, Dems can kiss that seat goodbye. Bettencourt is the strongest Republican in Harris County, running several points ahead of Bush in '04.
State Senate 7 -- All indications I hear are that Lindsay will run for re-election. Nixon may take him on anyway, though I've heard he also will run for re-election (as Dems, we want Nixon as the general opponent. And, Mark Ellis is certainly interested in that senate seat as well.
For Dems next year, we need a strong County Judge candidate. This will help drive the character of the entire election countywide, and will be very important.
Coupla bits to add that were overlooked in the first printing of this post ....
Friend or not, you should know that I am strongly committed to making a run for the 134th in 2006. While some may think that a female candidate would match up best against Martha Wong, I said during the 2004 race and continue to believe the best candidate in the 134th will first be a moderate candidate. Male or female will not be near as important as a moderate who can appeal to not only the 42-44% Democratic district, but give at least 10% of the Republicans a candidate that is more interested in serving the people of the 134th than in towing the (R) party line dictated by Tom Craddick and Governor Goodhair.
I firmly believe that a moderate candidate with good credentials can appeal to enough Republicans to win this district. A Democratic candidate who could win in Jessica Farrar's district, Gene or Al Green's, Alma Allen's, or even Scott Hochberg's district would not be the right candidate in West U, River Oaks, Meyerland, Bellaire or the Montrose.
My only slight reticence in declaring my eternal and undying commitment to run in 2006 is that while I remain committed at this time to renewing my candidacy, I also would not foreclose the notion of withdrawing from this race should a truly better qualified candidate appear. You are acutely aware that there were exhaustive efforts made in 2004 to find the right candidate, however in the end I stood up and said I will do it. It was not until the last filing day that Jim Dougherty made his decision to run. Though I was defeated in the primary by Jim, I feel certain that I made many friends (including you and Jim) in the process, many, many of whom have promised to support my candidacy in 2006.
I have heard from many in the district who told me that the single biggest knock on me in 2004 was that (some) long time party regulars simply didn't know who I was. Because Jim had run county-wide in 2000, (for DA), folks knew him. Jim had also paid his dues by serving the party in other roles. That criticism of me is no longer valid, nor will it be so in 2006! While this is certainly not the forum to go into details, I would be happy to share with you (and anyone else) my ideas for improving the 134th, starting with the election of a new state representative.
I firmly believe I am the best candidate, Republican or Democrat, to serve the 134th, but I also believe that having a Democrat, any Democrat as my state rep would be better than Ms. Wong. I look forward to working with you, and anyone else in or outside the Democratic Party to send Ms. Wong back to her no doubt lucrative feng shui consulting business.
Now where is my DVD that you borrowed?
Heh, it's safely set aside for the next chance we get to cross paths.
Keep the fight alive over there, you got my number when needed. Oh, and the Elena Marks rumor has been squashed, it should be pointed out.