Texas Election Results & Van Os Math
Off the Kuff: Van Os versus Kerry
Nifty little takedown (resepctful, but still a takedown) on David Van Os' claim of electoral success vs John Kerry here in Texas. Kuff points out that while part of Van Os' point is valid (to his credit, he did at least campaign quite actively among Dem circles), Bob Scarbarough got far better results in far more counties that neither Kerry nor Van Os carried.
What's really ironic about that, of course, is that I don't think I ever once heard a story of Bob Scarbarough campaigning anywhere. I mean, I'm giving him a benefit of a doubt that he did. But certainly not to the extent that Van Os did, and by no means as visibly as Van Os did.
Kuff's central point is well worth the arithmetic that goes into it:
My point here is not to bash David Van Os. I voted for him, and I agree with his argument that Democrats need to deliver their message aggressively and forcefully, and they must not be afraid to deliver it in places that aren't traditionally friendly. Kerry's campaign was understandably not present here, and the result speaks for itself. The point I am making, though, is that the right person has to deliver that message as well, and while I admire his fighting spirit, that person most likely isn't David Van Os.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Unlike Kuff, I did not vote for Van Os, going so far as to endorse his opponent. Nothing against a "fighting Dem" but I just tend to think he made an absolutely horrendous case for himself as a State Supreme Court Justice. Had he been running for a non-judicial office, I might not have rolled my eyes as often when he went into a Rove/Iraq/Halliburton rant.
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Politics-20048 Comments
I think the these number demonstrate two things.
1) Rural voters don't dislike "Democrats" as much as they disliked Kerry.
and
2) As far as Scarbarough goes, are we really surprised that rural Republicans couldn't stomach voting for a hispanic guy? Are they going to like Henry any more than Victor?
Bob Scarborough did campaign a little. Karl-Thomas had a couple posts about it.
That said, Scarborough's qualifications were... non-existant. There was almost no campaign.
If it weren't for Kerry, I'd go so far as to saying Scarborough and Van Os were about the worst that we could do (electorally speaking).
When we actually have some real candidates running real campaigns, we might actually go somewhere.
So here's to hoping!
Also, what's going on re: walking? I was out of town last weekend.
Only did a soft rollout for week #1 on the mean streets of Alief. Hit a few streets w/ high vietnamese counts and an apartment complex in the neighborhood. A few new voters out of the deal, so I can't complain. I'll be hitting up support more vocally after the start of next month and I can drop some more change into the printing costs.
That aside, I think there's two good points to add into the mix - one being that there are, indeed, a few spots in Texas where Hispanic candidates of either party are truly hurt by that surname; and the second being that a full, focused, active campaign is a different animal here in Texas. Compare 2002 to those results, and the story is a little different in terms of where Democrats can compete around the state. It's still uphill, but the fact that we've historically taken a breather during Presidential years at the State level does, indeed, have an effect.
And one thing in Van Os' defense ... his home turf of Bexar County. I crunched numbers in the county by County Commissioner district earlier this year, and noticed that Van Os won one of the marginal districts that Kerry lost outright. Don't recall the difference, maybe 5% or so. But still an improvement, as Van Os ran well ahead of Kerry in each of the four districts.
Well, Anglo Dems seemed to have also jumped ship in 2002 when a Hispanic ran for Gov. It's nothing new. At times, this party still looks like the Party of Bob Bullock where the only good Hispanic was a dead one they could count as a vote for themselves.
Anyway! I'm hoping the Dem Party in Harris County begins to work with those outside the usual Hispanic contingent in Houston. I can say I'm out of touch with the barrios because I live in the 'burbs, but when your live-in candidates only achieve 40% voter turnout, well, it's obvious that they are definitely exposed and can be taken with a strong primary campaign. I doubt if Houston will ever be able to field a county-wide Hispanic candidate since they (we) tend to stay in our areas.
Stace,
Good to see you dropping commentary here. But I've got it on good word that we can expect a very strong Hispanic candidate running a high profile countywide campaign in 2006. I think that in Harris County, an appealing Hispanic candidate is a plus for either side. Personal preference would be that Sylvia Garcia would leave her Commish spot for the County Judge gig, but that ain't gonna happen. Damn shame ... because she'd win if she did it.
Cameron, Frio, and Reeves Counties are all at least 70% Hispanic, according to the 2000 Census. Note that the Libertarian candidate in the RR Commish race was Hispanic - that's a probable reason why Scarborough didn't do as well in Cameron and Reeves as Van Os did even though Carillo did no better than Brister.
Also, among the counties that Scarborough carried but Van Os didn't, Nueces and Uvalde are majority Hispanic, while Refugio is about 45% Hispanic (it's 47% non-Hispanic white, again all according to 2000 Census data).
Well Greg, I'm not very enthused with Sylvia Garcia, right now. If anything, I'd campaign for her opponent!!!
Her recent proposal to tax immigrants, while ignoring all other indigents in need of health care left me a bit...well, pissed off!
She would better serve people in need by attacking those that keep cutting into social and health care programs, instead of going for the easy attack on people with no political clout. And her little affair with Mosbacher and Dewhurst is not looking good.
If you didn't notice, Hispanic pundits and consultants kept quiet. Even when Toni Medellin brought it up at a recent brown bag, there was no response from anyone, even the Tejano Dems in the room. LaRazaUnida.com is the only group that responded--of course, I typed the response!!
See ya!
Stace
Let's see....David Van Os lost by 1,276,154 votes. That's more than the 707,904 votes he lost by the FIRST time he ran. How ridiculous can these convsersations get? The man had his ASS handed to him. SO does it really matter which 10 or 25 or 15 counties he carried? Texas has 254 of them. So let's all get a little real around here. Put it in perspective PLEASE!